The History of Econometric Ideas (Historical Perspectives on Modern Economics)

Book Description

The History of Econometric Ideas covers the period from the late nineteenth century to the middle of the twentieth century, illustrating how economists first learned to harness statistical methods to measure and test the "laws" of economics. Though scholarly, Dr. Morgan's book is very accessible; it does not require a high level of prior statistical knowledge, and will be of interest to practicing statisticians and economists.

Customer Reviews:

Morgan is,like Tinbergen and Frisch,addicted to the N(0,1).......2005-01-27

Mary Morgan's book is an interesting summary of the historical development of the use of statistical analysis in economics, which culminated in the birth of econometrics in the mid-1930's ,due to the work of Tinbergen and Frisch and to the work of Haavelmo in the 1940's through the mid 1950's.She traces the development of the application of statistics to economic data ,starting with discussions of laws of error through the development of least squares by Legendre,Laplace,and Gauss to applied work done by Edgeworth and Mitchell.The heart of the book involves the work of Tinbergen,Frisch,and Haavelmo in their development of multiple regression and correlation analysis and their use of these techniques to supposedly test different economic theories based on the analysis of time series data.Morgan does a very good job as long as she sticks to historical summary.Unfortunately, she,far to often,errs grievously when she attempts to assess the relative merits of different competing theoretical arguments.This is most obvious in her coverage of the 1939-40 debate between John Maynard Keynes and Jan Tinbergen over the logical foundations of econometrics that took place in the Economic Journal(EJ).It also shows up in her strange claim that econometrics is an experimental method,which it certainly is not and will never be as long as the basic assumptions of the multiple regression and correlation approach are based on the mere assumption of a normal probability distribution. Morgan covers the Tinbergen-Keynes debate on pages 121-134.There is no evidence in this book that Morgan ever read any part of Keynes's A Treatise on Probability(1921;TP),much less the crucial parts of the TP that would allow a reader of the 1939-1940 exchange to understand the full force of Keynes's critique(chapter 17,pp.205-214,chapters 29 and 30,chapter 32,pp.391-393, pp.397-398,especially Keynes's discussion on p.398 of using the Lexis Q-test to test for the stability of, and justification for assuming the use of, a normal probability distribution,chapter 33,pp.408-409,415-416,and 420-421,especially ft.1 on pp.420-421,which summarizes the conclusions one can expect to derive from an application of the Lexis-Q test).The logical core of Keynes's critique is contained on page 568 of the Sept.,1939 EJ.Keynes states:"...the most important condition is that the environment in all relevant respects,other than the fluctuations in those factors of which we take particular account,shuold be uniform and homogeneous over a period of time."Keynes then suggests the formal procedure required to implement the application of the Lexis Q-test-breaking up the series(time series) into a set of subseries and then testing to see if each of the subseries' coefficients are generally the same(uniform) as the coefficients of the series.The results would be normal,subnormal,and supernormal(see Keynes's ft.1 on pp.420-421 of the TP).One criticism of Keynes(minor)is that he did not explicitly mention the Lexis Q-test.Keynes probably did not want to preclude other tests for normality,such as the Chi-Square.No where in Tinbergen's two volume work is there any such test.Keynes,however,could have told Tinbergen the results of such a test in advance.Due to constantly changing expectations of future expected profits and constant new investment in a capital stock changing due to constant technological change,advance and innovation over the long run period of time that would constitute the relevant time series,the necessary uniformity and homogeneity needed to apply a normal probability assumption would fail the test. The Keynes of the TP also had a suggested solution-use Cheybshev's inequality(see chapter 29 of the TP) and other measures of central tendency(law of errors) such as the median,harmonic mean and geometric mean(see chapter 17 of the TP).Morgan discusses the assumption of normality(see pp.8-9,60,113,117,240)that underlies the entire edifice of Tinbergen's econometrics without mentioning a single piece of empirical,experimental or historical evidence that would supply some amount of justification for such an assumption. In many respects,Keynes's argument against the misuse and abuse of the assumption of a normal probability distribution to test different theories of the business cycle ,using time series data, can be viewed as an earlier underdeveloped version of Benoit Mandelbrot's overwhelming critique of the misuse and abuse of the normal distribution in finance and portfolio theory.It is now obvious,due primarily to Mandelbrot's 50 years of scholarly work,that predictions about future price movements in the stock,money,bond,commodity, and currency exchange markets are all wrong.It should not be surprising that attempts to predict changes in the business cycle over the 65 years since the Tinbergen-Keynes debate have also turned out to be badly off the mark.I recommend that a reader of Morgan's book also purchase Hugo Keuzenkamp's 2001 book,titled Probability,Econometrics and Truth and Benoit Mandelbrot's 2004 book,The (Mis) Behavior of Markets in order to fully grasp the case against present day econometric practice.Econometrics is presently reduced to the short run estimation of coefficients based on the use of cross-sectional data.

The Formation of Econometrics: A Historical Perspective

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The Formation of Econometrics: A Historical Perspective
Duo Qin
Manufacturer: Oxford University Press, USA
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

Econometrics | Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

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ASIN: 0198283881

Book Description

This book traces the formation of econometric theory during the period 1930-60. It focuses on the formation of econometrics from mathematical and scientific processes, in order to analyse economic problems. The book deals with the advances in understanding that were achieved as well as the problems which arose in the course of the practice of econometrics as a discipline. Duo Qin examines the history of econometrics in terms of the basic issues in econometric modelling: the probability foundations, estimation, identification, testing, and model construction and specification. The book describes chronologically how these issues were formalized. Duo Qin argues that while the probability revolution in econometrics in the early 1940s laid the basis for the systematization of econometric theory, it was actually an incomplete revolution, and that its incompleteness underlay various problems and failures which occurred in applying the newly-established theory to modelling practice. The book thus links early econometric history with many issues of interest to contemporary developments in econometrics.

Comparative Advantage in International Trade: A Historical Perspective

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One of a kind!

Comparative Advantage in International Trade: A Historical Perspective
Andrea Maneschi
Manufacturer: Edward Elgar Pub
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

Exports & Imports | Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

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ASIN: 1858983002

Book Description

The book analyzes the evolution of the concept of comparative advantage from the eighteenth century to the present day. It examines the origins of the concept of comparative advantage, its current status within economic thought and its validity in today's global economy.

This comprehensive book outlines the theories of trade and the interpretations of comparative advantage associated with, among others, the Mercantilists, Smith, Ricardo, Torrens, Longfield, Mill, Marshall, Pareto, Haberler, Heckscher, Ohlin and Samuelson, as well as present day trade theorists. A chapter is devoted to Hamilton, Rae and List, who interpreted comparative advantage dynamically by advocating its creation.

The book breaks new ground by reinterpreting the theories of trade associated with prominent economists such as Ricardo, and drawing attention to valuable but lesser known contributions. It considers the new trade theory from the past two decades as a legitimate successor to the dynamic views of comparative advantage of the classical economists. This book will be required reading for students and academics with an interest in the history of economic thought and the economics (or theory) of international trade.

Customer Reviews:

One of a kind!.......2001-02-17

In the era of Attac and kriticism against international trade, this is a valuable resource for understanding what has been thought earlier within the diciplin of economics.

Economics Against the Grain Volume Two: Population Economics, Natural Resources and Related Themes

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Economics Against the Grain Volume Two: Population Economics, Natural Resources and Related Themes
Julian L. Simon
Manufacturer: Edward Elgar Publishing
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Natural Resources | Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

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ASIN: 1858981700

Book Description

This second volume of the late Julian Simon's articles and essays continues the theme of Volume One in presenting unorthodox and controversial approaches to many fields in economics.

Book Description

Inspired by recent developments in science studies, Professor Sent offers an innovative type of analysis of the recent history of rational expectations economics. In the course of exploring the multiple dimensions of rational expectations analysis, she focuses on the work of Thomas Sargent, an instrumental pioneer in the development of this school of thought. The treatment aims to illuminate some of the shifting negotiations and alliances that characterize the rise and shift of direction in rational expectations economics.

The Foundations of Long Wave Theory: Models and Methodology (International Library of Critical Writings in Economics)

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The Foundations of Long Wave Theory: Models and Methodology (International Library of Critical Writings in Economics)

Manufacturer: Edward Elgar Publishing
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 185898842X

Book Description

This two volume set is a comprehensive collection of historical and contemporary articles which highlight the theoretical foundations and the methods and models of long wave analysis. After examining the beginnings of long wave theory, the book includes discussions of time series methods and non-linear modelling, with an exploration of economic development in its historical context. It investigates the process of evolution and mutation in industrial capitalism over the last two hundred years. Contemporary reviews and critiques of long wave theory are also included. It makes available for the first time much important material that has hitherto been inaccessible. The book will be of immense value to all students and scholars interested in the history of economic thought, time series analysis and evolutionary or institutionalist analysis.

India's Economic Prospects: A Macoeconomic and Econometric Analysis (Economic Ideas Leading to the 21st Century , Vol 4)

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India's Economic Prospects: A Macoeconomic and Econometric Analysis (Economic Ideas Leading to the 21st Century , Vol 4)
Thampy Mammen
Manufacturer: World Scientific Publishing Company
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Keynes and Public Policy After Fifty Years: Economics and Policy

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Keynes and Public Policy After Fifty Years: Economics and Policy

Manufacturer: Edward Elgar Publishing
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

General | Historical | Biographies & Memoirs | Subjects | Books

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ASIN: 1852780037

Turbulence in Economics: An Evolutionary Appraisal of Cycles and Complexity in Historical Processess

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Turbulence in Economics: An Evolutionary Appraisal of Cycles and Complexity in Historical Processess
Francisco Louca
Manufacturer: Edward Elgar Publishing
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 1858985633

Two Minds: Intuition and Analysis in the History of Economic Thought

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Interesting book but it has too many errors and omissions

Two Minds: Intuition and Analysis in the History of Economic Thought
Roger Frantz
Manufacturer: Springer
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0387240691

Book Description

The "Two Minds" noted economist Roger Frantz explores in this landmark book are, first, the analytical mind and, second, the intuitive mind. In part one he presents the leading theories on intuition, discusses recent developments in cognitive science, and borrows from such non-economist intuitors as Albert Einstein, Jonas Salk, Henri Poincare, Ludwig von Beethoven, and Robert Louis Stevenson to explore the role of intuition in science and creativity.

In part two, Frantz considers the presumably analytic and logical nature of economics and then demonstrates the many ways in which economists from Adam Smith to Herbert Simon have relied on intuition as a fruitful mental activity.

This book provides a rich complement and alternative perspective to some of the theoretical and mathematical models that have dominated the dismal science since the late 1940s.

Customer Reviews:

Interesting book but it has too many errors and omissions.......2006-08-27

Frantz had the opportunity in this book to show how Adam Smith ,John Stuart Mill ,Joseph Schumpeter,John Maynard Keynes,Frank Knight and Herbert Simon(Daniel Ellsberg is overlooked)successfully integrated a clear and distinct role in decision theory,economic theory and economic thought for intuition.Unfortunately,he succeeds in a haphazard and vague manner.This is due to the fact that his discussions of intuition overlooks extremely important sources such as Daniel Ellsberg and Gary Klein.Paraphrasing Klein(Sources of Power,1998,p.31),intuition "...depends on the use of experience to recognize key patterns that indicate the dynamics of the situation...some aspects of intuition come from the ability to use experience to recognize situations and know how to handle them ".Frantz does not have a clear understanding of what intuition is.This lack of understanding appears many times,for example, on p.91 when he discusses Keynes's concept of animal spirits,which Keynes discussed in an informal manner due to his inability to explicitly integrate an optimism-pessimism index, a la Hurwicz ,into his discussions of the role of confidence that a decision maker has in his estimates of probability(Ellsberg successfully integrated such an index(alpha) into his approach along with an index(rho) to measure confidence.)Keynes's use of the term "animal spirits" is his informal way of emphasizing the importance of the degree of optimism or pessimism a decision maker has,given his confidence in his information base.Frantz ,unfortunately, conflates the state of confidence with animal spirits and conflates animal spirits with intuition.Contrary to Frantz,animal spirits do not express reasons of which we are not aware.Animal spirits has absolutely nothing to due with reasoning.It is an emotion that may have feedback effects on conclusions reached primarily by reasoning based on the most complete information base a decision maker can construct plus past experience(intuition).Frantz is correct that animal spirits played a major role in and was a major determinant of new investment in Keynes's theory of investment(chapters 11 and 12 of the General theory plus the two page extension on pp.239-241 in chpter 17).However,animal spirits deals with the optimism and pessimism of decision makers and has nothing to do with confidence,intuition,or reasoning.

Book Description

Adopted at more than 70 law schools after its first year of publication, this supplementary text contains the litigation documents from Anderson v. Cryovac, the toxic tort case portrayed in the bestseller A Civil Action. Used in conjunction with Harr's book and any civil procedure casebook, A Documentary Companion to A Civil Action makes the first-year civil procedure class uniquely exciting and enlightening. The book can also serve as the sole text for an advanced litigation class. The authors have arranged documents from Anderson v. Cryovac topically to illustrate every phase of the litigation process, from notice to appeal. Their extensive notes and comments provide informative analysis of the legal, tactical, and ethical issues raised by the materials, as well as inside information about the case from extensive interviews with the lawyers. The book also presents thought-provoking questions to facilitate class discussion, as well as materials such as photographs, maps, newspaper articles, and excerpts from scientific reports.

Customer Reviews:

Parallel realities?.......2005-07-29

Do the events in this case and the history prior to it have anything to with the Whitey Bulger case?
In 1994 a man who worked for Grace appeared in a local newspaper story about his search for his unknown father and all the obstacles in his path. Not 6 months later Whitey vanishes and Harr's book comes out. The man had also written an autobiographical account in which early years in Woburn is mentioned prior to this book. As things heated up over the Bulger case AND in the movie adaptation of Harr's book, the man became mired in the resulting confusion and old 'friends' began exhibiting strange behavior.
Some of these friends appeared as possible plants to keep an eye on the boy(now a man) and to report back info to various parties for review and countermeasures, as of the boy was collateral against key players in the Bulger case with a link to the Woburn cancer tragedy discussed here.
Is it possible a child involved in the Woburn tragedy has been monitored and reported on by individuals directly or indirectly linked to one or more agencies with an interest in the Bulger case? If so, has such a child been targeted and to thwart any attention to such a possibility-- discreet,planned documentary evidence been fabricated to suggest otherwise, such as conversations steered to counter such charges then recorded without the man's knowledge or permission under a cloak of ComSec or other security provisions?
Far-fetched? Consider that many of the key players in the Bulger case hail from the areas affected by the Woburn case. It is alleged the man was also targeted for surveillance by an older man in his 50s(estimate) with TN license plates who claimed to work 'construction' around the time Barry Mawn was moved to the Boston FBI office AND is a Woburn native!

Not for the casual reader.......2005-07-22

Pay attention to the descriptions above so that you'll know what you're getting. This book is intended for law students or other legal-minded professionals, or only the most die-hard and detail-oriented of laypeople. The word "documentary" in the title will disappoint you if the documentaries that usually interest you are on the History Channel. This book is primarily a compilation of actual court pleadings... you know, those long, verbose, lawyer-written legal-brief-type arguments that have the party names at the top and usually begin with "comes now, Anne Andersen, Plaintiff, who alleges and would show this Court the following..." yadda yadda. Granted, you would never get to see this stuff if the author had not painstakingly gone through the court's casefiles and selected the best documents, but what you're reading is exactly that: the highlights of the court file. If you've never had the desire to show up at the federal courthouse, ask to see the casefile for Anderson v. Cryovac (assuming they'd let you), wait for them to haul the boxes in from the warehouse (remember the forklift at the end of the movie?) and then page through the documents one by one for days on end, then this book will probably not intrigue you. If the thought of paging through the history of these proceedings does interest you, then by all means, get this book. If nothing else, it will show the lawyer how much worse his/her life could be, it will show the law student how complex a case like this can be, and it will give the layperson an appreciation for just how much work can and does go into a lawsuit like this.

Excellent Teaching Tool.......2004-03-16

I have used this book very successfully to introduce business students to the realities of law. It's a particularly useful supplement for business law texts which tend to treat law as a set of rules to be memorized.

Book Description

Since 1978, China has pursued sweeping economic changes in an officially sponsored transition from a Stalinist centrally planned economy to a socialist market economy. China's reformers have highlighted the need to curb the awesome power of the Leninist state and change the balance of power between state and economy, state and society. In practice, the economic reforms have set in train a process of potentially fundamental social and institutional change in China which is creating new socio-economic forces, shifting power in their direction, and raising the possibility of political transformation. This book explores the extent to which this experience can be described and understood in terms of the idea of `civil society', defined in sociological terms as the emergence of an autonomous sphere of voluntary associations capable of organizing the interests of emergent socio-economic groups and counterbalancing the hitherto unchallenged dominance of the Marxist-Leninist state. the authors lay out a clear operational definition of the concept of civil society to make it useful as a tool for empirical inquiry and avoid the cultural relativism of its origins in Western historical experience. Guided by this theoretical framework, the book brings together a vast amount of empirical data on emergent social organization and institutions in contemporary China, drawing on the authors' extensive fieldwork experience in East Asia. It is based on interviews, survey questionnaires, and copious documentary sources, buttressed by in-depth case studies of specific localities over a two-year period from 1991 to 1993. the research focused on the changes in the socio-economic realities of three major social groups - urban manual workers, women, and managers/entrepreneurs. The primary emphasis is on transformations in urban China, though detailed rural case studies of Xiaoshan and Nanhai are included to provide comparative context. The authors describe the new forms of state-society relations, as reflected in the complex links between the state and new associations. They show how the expansion of these associations is jeopardized by the lack of general democratization of China's political institutions.

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