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In The Roaring 2000s, America's favorite optimist, Harry S. Dent Jr., makes the case that demographics drive all economic activity and that, thanks to the current baby boom, we're set for one whale of a good time over the next 10 years. In The Roaring 2000s Investor, Dent shows how to cash in on this boom, then prepare for the worst when the downturn finally hits in the latter part of the decade. Dent believes that the best investment opportunities exist in the stock market--specifically technology, financial services, health care, and leisure stocks. But watch out after 2008, because that's when he thinks the bottom falls out. For these tough times, Dent recommends a shift away from stocks to out-of-favor investments such as bonds and commercial real estate.
In addition to investment information, Dent includes a good dose of living advice. He counsels not to be the millionaire next-door, counting change in a darkened living room while the greatest economic boom in history roars past. He writes, "Life should be interesting; investment and financial plan should be boring." Dent's prescription: Understand what drives the economy, then get a financial advisor and learn to enjoy life. Other subjects he touches on include asset allocation, international investing, and tax planning. Some might find Dent's reliance on demographics as an economic barometer a bit too simplistic. But for others, The Roaring 2000s Investor just might be the perfect framework for building an investment strategy into the next millennium. --Harry C. Edwards
Book Description
THE GREAT BOOM IS HERE
In the New York Times bestseller The Roaring 2000s, Harry S. Dent, Jr., forecast a booming market that will continue to rise through the first eight years of the twenty-first century. Now in The Roaring 2000s Investor, Dent turns his uncanny ability to see our economic future to the specific strategies you can use to get the life you want -- now and for the rest of your days.
Whether you are planning to retire in ten years or forty, looking for a larger home or a smaller one, planning to put several children through college or planning for life after they have graduated, you will find what you are looking for in The Roaring 2000s Investor, including information on:
- The Ultimate Portfolio Strategy for the Roaring 2000s
- International Trends in Developed and Emerging Countries
- Deflating the Inflation Myth
- Why You May Need a Financial Advisor and How to Find a Great One
- The Truth About Taxes
- Targets for the Dow and NASDAQ by 2008
The ultimate goal of The Roaring 2000s Investor is to give investors personalized and effective financial planning advice that fits their specific needs and allows them to achieve their highest life goals through the great boom of the next decade -- and the hard times that Dent predicts will follow.
Customer Reviews:
Population growth has been accelerating since World War II, prosperity increasing, and the growth will continue for decades........2006-01-19
Population growth affects every trend in the economy: earnings and spending, saving and borrowing, inflation and deflation, innovation and abandonment is driven by the predictable age of new generations of consumers and workers. New generations come in waves every 40 years. The baby boomers massive savings will elevate the stock market to new heights. Bet on predictable savings, saving trends, and the following sector-profits (technology, financial services, health care, and travel and leisure). The most import forecasting tool for our economy is the spending wave, it predicts the booms and bust, it predictions extend five years in advance. The baby boomer spending and productivity demonstrate higher trends into 2008-2009 and assuming 16% growth the DOW will be 40,000 meaning wealth doubles every 4 ½ years.
As, the new generation population peak productivity and consumption causes an economic burst, reduces inflation, and innovation investments produce new technologies. The 80-year cycle starts the new generations birth, college education in the first part of the curve, at 46.5 years of age increases in spending and productive peak, at 58 years of age increases in investment power business revolutions, and at 68 years of age increases in savings investments boast financial institutions offering fixed asset securities.
Each new generation burst on the economy with radically new technologies, one such technology is networks predicted to extend penetration from 1994 - 2025 and the baby boomer generation spending increases started around 2002 and will continue until 2008-2009. The 80 year cycle will shift from a standardized economy to a customized economy with more personalized services and products. Every 500 years there is a population explosion, characterized by 4 fold increases in population and we are in one of these 500 year cycles. The population explosion drives large innovation cycles. The information revolution or innovation is just starting to emerge. The current bull market will continue into 2008, experience deflationary pressure in 2009 and continue to struggle until 2022-2023, a stock crash probable in 2014.
In phase 1 of the 80 year cycle which will last for 19 to 22 years are characterized by high expenses, high investment, high innovation, low earnings, low productivity, and low spending. In Phase II represents a great economic boom characterized by rising earnings, spending, and productivity and lasts 26-27 years. At the midpoint, the group is leveraging debt ratios to buy second homes, and paying off debt levels as they continue to fall, these are the power years.
Economic Cycle, stage 1: characterized by inflation as investment pour into create infrastructure surrounding innovation; a recession will emerge caused from a downward spending wave; a new economy will emerge; huge investments will be make too retool the new infrastructure create many new technologies and companies of the new generation as they enter the workforce. Invest in Real Estate, Small cap stocks, international stocks, T-Bills and CDs, and Gold.
Stage 2: The growth boom starts will the individualistic generation entering the spending wave, inflation falls, technologies drive productivity, the new generation buys new products and technologies, luxury items become mainstream as they become more affordable, large cap companies outperform small cap in a race for market leadership, 30 year US treasures yield become attractive sources of fixed income (13.9% from 1981 to 1998), and bond appreciate in value as inflation drops. Invest in real estate, large cap companies, long-term bonds.
Deflationary shakeout is characterized by falling prices, high unemployment, and lack of innovation. During this time small cap companies will outperform Large Cap companies 6 to 1. Invest in long term government bonds or corporate bonds, small cap stocks, and real estate and commercial buildings.
The maturity boom of (2023-2050) generates an enormous cycle of spending, market saturation, and growth bursts. Invest in Large cap stocks, small cap, residential real estate, and commercial real estate.
Inflation has always followed large surges in births and population. Population growth has been accelerating since World War II, prosperity increasing, and the growth will continue for decades. New workers entering the workforce, as they become more productive cause inflation to go down. In the early stages the market see the entrance of a population mass of rebellious and innovative new young people, whose rising expenses spark increased social and technological innovations requiring massive investment in the new infrastructure. Expect inflation. As this group ages into productivity, consumer spending increases, spending stimulates growth, inflation falls, and quality of life improves. Countries like India, South East Asia, and the Middle East are experiencing the new generation affect. The fed has little or nothing to do with the market trends and its resulting inflation. The fed is left to react too the greater forces of population trends. The wealth affect will continue to expand into Europe, Australia, New Zealand and strong growth in Asia like Japan, China, S Korea, and Latin America will offset domestic decline, stock crashes, and deflation.
Best Summary of How to Apply Demographics to Your Life.......2004-09-10
Peter Drucker has been teaching the importance of demographics to business people and investors for decades. In all this time, only Harry S. Dent, Jr. has created a practical look at the implications of demographics for each of us. In creating this book, he has moved well beyond his earlier work, and created information that each person must have. For a popular book, this is written in a way that makes it very accessible and easy to use. I highly recommend that you get this book, read it, and refer to the many wonderful summary graphs daily to remind you what questions to ask yourself about how demographics will affect your life, business, and investments. I look forward to reading future books from Mr. Dent.
As you will notice when you read the book, demographics is not fate . . . so economies do vary from what their potential is. Pay attention to the thought process rather than the conclusions.
How this guy ever got published is a lesson in itself..........2004-07-06
I read this book back in 2000 before the crash and agreed with
some of his reasoning as to the mechanics and ideas which would be implemented in the New Millenium, but disagreed with his
belief that there would be such great prosperity,as history ALWAYS repeats itself.
But alas, no one wants a pessimist. Then he came out with the "Roaring 2000's Investor", which again was creative and showed brilliance, but proved to by flawed on many levels. Now he has another book slated to come out
"The Greatest Bull Market in History: 2003-2008: Investment, Business and Life Strategies - For the Great Boom Ahead and the Great Bust to Follow"
If his past predictions are any indication, this title itself is already filled with hindsight and error. I can tell you there will be no sustainable bull market on any of the indexes for at least the next decade.
I must admit I would like to speak with this guy. With a few real life experiences under his belt he may really hit the target, but so far the best title for a book would be "The Roaring 2000's: How to prosper by making the best seller list by publishing books that make people believe you have the answers."
Lession #1: Don't put dates in the titles of your books that try to predict the future"
Unfortunately Harry Dent is Wrong But There Is Hope.......2002-12-01
In late 1999 the stock market was in a hey day. I would walk into work in the morning and my supervisor would say to me, "Ron, your stock is already up three points!" Then I came across this book by Harry Dent, and I showed it to some co-workers. At the time, this book seemed to be a revelation to us.
In the early 90s, Harry Dent predicted that in the late 90s, the stock market would hit 10,000, and we would have low inflation and low unemployment. That indeed happended, so it seemed reasonable to listen to his further prognostications. In this book, he predicts that the DOw would hit 40,000 in the year 2007, followed by a sharp bear market that would last for about 10 years.
What was his basis for predicting this? Well, lets call it the "birthrate theory." Harry Dent took a chart of birthrates, shifted it by about 44 years, and saw that this chart had a strong correlation with the ups and downs of the economy and the stock market. Why shift the birth rate chart 44 years? Because that is the age by and large where people reach their peak in earning and spending. They have reached maximum productivity--they are old enough to have learned what needs learning, and young enough before the natural decline of aging. So basically, when the group of those around 44 years old increases, so goes the theory, the stock market and the economy goes up, and when the group of those around 44 years old decreases, the market and economy is in decline. Thus that "baby boom generation" when they entered their 40s, fueled the market and economic surge of the 80s and 90s. An interesting point to be made concerning Dent's interpretaion of this data is that while people conventioanlly start the "baby boom generation" from 1945, Dent starts it a couple of years earlier, and I do think he is right, the increase in birthrates started earlier than 1945.
One objection to Dent's theory that has been made--by Dr. Shiller who wrote "Irrational Exuberance"--is that why did not this demographic birthrate theory affect other asset classes, like real estate. A reply to this objection from the basis of the birthrate theory is that it has but in a different way--that since people buy homes generally when they are in thier 20s and 30s, then you should shift the bithrate chart around 30 years for real estate. And this seems to be confirmed by the experience of the 1970s, when real estates values went up when the baby boom generation was in the 20s and 30s.
A devasting objection to Dent's theory, however, is that is has been for all intents and purposes been falsified. For the market to reach 40,000 in the year 2007 from this point today, the market would have TO HAVE AN ANNUAL RATE OF RETURN OF AT LEAST 25 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. The odds of that happening are astronomical and has no precedent in stock market history.
Dent had a chart showing the rates of return of the market by decade. He pointed out that while there has been two consecutive decades of above average market returns (for example, the 50s and 60s, and the 80s and 90s) there has never been THREE CONSECUTIVE decades of above average returns--but the exeception would be this time. Dent should have stuck with the decade analysis.
So it looks like that the period of 2000-2010 will be a decade of below average returns for the stock market, comparable to the 30s and the 70s.
This book has some value in that it can get one to think in broader historical terms about the markets. Part of the title of this review/essay is "but there is hope." As the decade analysis of the market shows, bear markets do not last forever, though they may last a decade, and then they are followed by bull markets. SO perhaps around the year 2010 a new bull market will begin and it would be a good time to be invested.
If one is interested in good investment advice, I have been following Bob Brinker lately. He has a radio show about investing heard on stations around the country. In early 2000 he told his listeners to get out of the NASDAQ and the market; Brinker was right in calling the top. He has not yet gone back into the market--thus avoiding terrible declines for his followers. Mr. Brinker, against the academic view, thinks he can "time" the market, and believes that one can make money on rallies in the general bear makret. He has not, at this time, yet given a signal when this "counter-cyclical" rally in the bear market will occur. Stay tuned.
Got Hope?.......2002-07-01
Harry Dent is a bull. Hands down, gotta-own-stocks, Katie-bar-the-door bull.
If you need a shot of confidence in your battered portfolio this book will give it to you.
Dent has the economic research, the demographic data, market insights, and statistical modelling to build a very persuasive case for equities over the next 6 1/2 years, until 2009.
Be careful of the sectors you are in and keep an eye on your allocation, he warns. The markets will shift dramtically down the road. I read his book today and will be changing my asset allocation tomorrow.
Harry S. Dent makes a strong case to be bullish.
I would have liked to read a more current introduction from him in light of market and economic developments over the past two years, but his basic story has remained, largely, unchanged. 4 Stars.
Product Description
Harry S. Dent, a Harvard Business School graduate, predicted the rise of the Dow when others preached pessimism and despair. For those familiar with THE GREAT BOOM AHEAD and THE ROARING 2000S, you know that Dent backs up his optimism with data. In THE ROARING 2000S, Investor Dent urges individuals to seek financial advice from a professional and come up with a plan that fits their specific needs and goals. His investment of choice at present is the stock market, with technology, health care, financial services and leisure stocks being the best bets. Citing demographics, Dent predicts more good news. Baby boomers entering their peak earning years should translate into prosperity until about 2008. Then comes the dive, which is okay, too, if you've gotten out of the market in time and into bonds and commercial real estate. In other words, pay attention and be prepared. Dent is a cheerful reader, and he speaks with the authority of a man with a track record. M.D.B.
Book Description
Based on first-hand interviews with managers around the world, the book provides intelligent and thoughtful insights into the major global trends and issues influencing organizations today.
Customer Reviews:
Survey based confirmation of drivers of change.......2003-02-18
At last here is a book that gives a thorough account of the basic drivers of global change and their consequences, rather than trying to force observed events into some predetermined theory. Lawrence bases his book on in-depth interviews with a wide range of organizations and does a masterly job of synthesizing the findings and presenting them in an informal, highly readable and logical way.
Lawrence is particularly good at conveying the systemic connections between the drivers of change and the various organizational responses to change. For this reason the book provides an excellent guide both to understanding and for action. The main arguments and findings are well summarized through the book, which makes it easy to focus on issues of specific concern, such as downsizing, mergers and strategic partnering.
Because the book is based on interviews with executives of organizations, certain important drivers are not highlighted. For example, although the fact that customers (both business and personal) are becoming more demanding is highlighted, the underlying changes in attitudes between the generations is not. Similarly, the rapidly rising concern with sustainability does not figure strongly. This is perhaps a reflection of what is in the consciousness of the author's respondents, rather than a reflection on the author himself.
Average customer rating:
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Global Food Trade and Consumer Demand for Quality
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ASIN: 0306467542 |
Book Description
The objective of these proceedings is to examine consumer demand for quality attributes (including food safety, biotechnology-free food, organic food, etc.) in the context of a global economy and expanding international trade and the role of both private firm strategies and public policy in facilitating consumer choice and free trade. Specific questions will be addressed in order to meet this objective. They begin with the two-way linkage between trade and consumer demand, and end with quality and regulation.
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Best All Around Source for Identifying Protozoa.......2004-05-24
While the classification of "protozoans" has altered much over the last few years, Jahn et al. has remained as a standard text for identifying these strange microscopic creatures. The second edition was published in 1978 and the fact that it is still in print indicates its utility.
When used with Kudo's "Protozology" and the more recent "Free-Living Freshwater Protozoa: A Color Guide" by D. J. Patterson, along with a phase-contrast compound microscope, almost any known protozoan can be determined to genus. Even with simpler equipment most can be reasonably placed to genus. Phase contrast is useful to more easily see some of the characters, such as cilia and cirri.
In general, this is a very user friendly book (as are most, if not all, of the books in the "How to Know" series.) Some sections that are especially useful include those on protozoan sizes (absolutely necessary in most cases), drawing protozoans, and motion in protozoans. The illustrations are generally very good and clearly show characters needed to identify a specimen. The descriptions are equally clear and helpful. In addition, specialized terms are defined in the index, a very useful innovation as you only have to look them up once!
If you are interested at all in microscopic organisms, either as a professional or an amateur, this book is a must for your library.
Excellent Resource!.......2003-07-28
I run a microscope sales company (MicroscopeWorld.com) and used this book a few years ago when we produced a high school video program on Protozoology. It was indispensable for identifying the many protozoans found in fresh water. I highly recommend it!
A Well-Respected Classic.......1999-05-06
This book is perfect for the serious amateur who is interested in identifying and understanding the protozoa. It is extensively illustrated with meticulously crafted pen-and-ink drawings, and the author gives us instructions on how (and why!) to make good drawings of our own. The book is technical enough to be useful, with the technical terms carefully defined and explained. The coverage of the organisms is thorough and practical, given that to key out protozoans much further than the family level requires professional training. This is the most useful book I have found so far in my quest to identify the microscopic organisms of Guam.
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