Book Description
An ambitious, intelligent, and very readable guide to understanding our present and our future."-Harry Beckwith, author of Selling the Invisible
No one can foretell the future. Or can they? There are many who purport to-and they are making a fortune. From meteorologists to investment advisers, prognosticating professionals are part of a multibillion-dollar industry. No longer merely fortunetellers, they are fortune sellers, offering us a commodity we're more than eager to buy: the future.
In this piercing and provocative expose, business consultant and forecasting expert William Sherden casts an unblinking eye on the booming business of predicting the future, separating fact from fallacy to show us not only how best to use the forecasts we're given, but how to "select the nuggets of valuable future advice from amongst the $200 billion worth of mostly erroneous future predictions put forth each year.
Customer Reviews:
Depressing..........2007-07-03
The book is poorly written and very biased. Most of the analysis is not comprehensive and leaves many unanswered questions.
The Sad Truth About the Prediction Business.......2006-11-25
An entertaining, informative read. Sherden surveys the various fields of professional prediction (weather, finance, technology) in search of those who can predict the future accurately. You will be surprised by the track records of the various "experts" in their fields.
Prediction in a complex world. Sherden debunks false prophets and shows why market (or weather) picking is a risky business........2006-01-31
The marketplace is full of purported gurus who can beat the market, and full of players who would love to know how to beat the system. In this volume William Sherden does an absolutely glorious job of debunking the trend-meisters (in weather, in population forecasting and in the sharemarket) to show us why prediction is a harder business than many of us might guess.
Peppered with supporting evidence, he shows how "fools forecasting" (tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's) has a stronger track record than the scientific weather forecasts we see each night on television. In population forecasting the standard technique of subtracting deaths from births (and adding in migration) is shown to be wonderfully accurate until...until turning points that nobody can forecast. The baby boom after WW2 was expected to last 2 years. It lasted more than a decade.
When it comes to market prediction, Sherden palpably opens up his engines of argument: full throttle. He carefully dissects various marketing picking models and shows that their successes are generally outweighed by their failures. This makes strangely entertaining but high salutary reading. The warning to readers: don't get carried away by any system - in a complex world the rules change faster than any of us learn to play the game.
Two books that would go nicely with this volume is Ellis' recently published: "Ahead of the Curve" (a market forecasting system that looks more solidly founded than others) as well as "Six Degrees" by Duncan Watts, a book that explores the volatility and randomness of the world around us.
I loved "Fortune Sellers": I loved the case studies and I enjoyed Sherden's well-researched, clear writing. He makes technical aspects of his subject very understandable without resorting to over-simplification. Well recommended.
Predicting New Product Success.......2006-01-23
It is often said that the number one rule of the inventing game is not to reinvent the wheel. In other words, don't put a great deal of effort, time, and money into developing a product unless you first take the time to find out if your proposed product has been already been invented.
More than one entrepreneur has been shocked to find that his or her item has already been brought to market and has been rejected by the consuming public.
The number two rule may be said to be to view your invention objectively. Relying on the opinions of friends and relatives can be fatal. The question then becomes can anyone predict if a product will be a success in the marketplace. This book examines "the big business of buying and selling predictions."
The author, William A. Sherden, is a consultant to some of the nation's largest international corporations. He has made a study of sixteen types of forecasting and has come to the conclusion that "only two--one day-ahead weather forecasts and the aging of population-can be counted on; the rest are about as reliable as the fifty-fifty odds in flipping a coin."
If one of the nation's most respected consultants has come to the conclusion that you and I are just about as accurate as the very best, how can an individual determine if his or her product will make the grade? He explores the history of seven forecasting professions. For the entrepreneur or inventor, Chapter Six, Science Fact and Fiction" is the chapter to read and reread. The chapter covers the predicting of future technologies. He cites that up until 1800 the general public had little reason to be excited by technological progress. In fact, prior to 1800 "most mills, ships, and carriages were still powered by animals, wind, and water, much as in the days of ancient Greece and Rome." It was science fiction writers, such as Jules Verne and H. G. Wells, that excited the public to the idea of predicting future technologies.
The author describes a dozen analytical tools for technology forecasting, such as S-curve, Delphi method, and Trend Analysis. He comments that "Despite their fancy names, these techniques are useless in predicting the most significant events in the evolution of technology." He further notes "...long-term technology predictions have been wrong about 80 percent of the time." Interestingly the world's largest forecaster, the Japanese government, has about the same rate of failure.
However, there is one glorious ray of hope for inventors. That is that major innovations "seem to come out of the blue." Experts are often wrong. A noted physicist, just seven years prior to the Wright brother's successful flight, expressed his opinion that only the balloon could be used for manned flight. Just before the first man-made satellite circled the earth a famous astronomer announced "space travel is utter bilge." Western Union turned down Bell's telephone patent because "The public simply cannot be trusted to handle technical communications equipment..."
Probably the greatest barrier to predicting future technology is what the author calls "situational bias." We think in terms of what already exists and think developments are only extensions of existing devices rather that the creation of a whole new field. For example, even Marconi visualized his radio as being mainly useful in areas where telephone wires could not be put up. To this day the British refer to radio as the "wireless."
The author writes that many great innovations result from combining different technologies. This also complicates any efforts to predict. Quite often it is an individual inventor that sees the possibilities of combining technologies to achieve new results rather than experts in the technologies. On the negative side an inferior product may "lock-out" a superior product if it is there first and becomes the industry standard. For example, the "QWERTY" keyboard cannot be replaced by better arrangements because of the vast number of people proficient with it.
Another caution to innovators is that commercial success can be long time coming. He notes the Battelle Institute has estimated nineteen years on the average. He points out companies "on the leading edge," are also often referred to as "on the bleeding edge."
The author makes a case for more government grants for small-scale research projects. He cites the massive space program, which is often claimed to have created many new by-products, has, in his opinion, only produced Tang!
If you read the book, will it enable you to predict your product's future? Probably not, no one can. However, it may open your eyes to some of the pitfalls even the greatest reputed "experts" make. It is an easy read, an enjoyable read, and an educational read.
An excellent survey of the field of prediction.......2002-03-09
Sherden sets out to do what no one else seems to want to -- evaluate people who make predictions based on the accuracy of their predictions. And with a few exceptions, the evaluation is very much "thumbs down."
What Sherden doesn't do is tell us why people continue to believe predictions, and why billions of dollars continue to be spent based on predictions that aren't any better than throwing darts. But that's a good topic for another book.
This book is absolutely required reading for anyone who wonders whether stock analysts or economists really know what the future holds. The answer is simple: they don't.
Average customer rating:
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8 Steps to Building Innovating Organizations (Response Books) (Response Books)
Manu Parashar
Manufacturer: Sage Publications Pvt. Ltd
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Binding: Paperback
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ASIN: 0761935592 |
Book Description
The author of this volume presents the theory that innovation is something outside the organizational framework and shows how the capability to innovate can be built into the fabric of an organization in eight steps. He offers a model that managers can adopt and implement in their organizations, using case studies and examples to give practical advice that can easily be adapted into practice.
Some of the practical concepts in innovation for organizations discussed include: knowledge capability; attitudinal capability; creative capability; building blocks of innovation; and renewing capabilities.
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Flexibility and Stability in the Innovating Economy
Manufacturer: Oxford University Press, USA
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ASIN: 0199290474 |
Book Description
Interactions between business, technological, public policy, and organization processes are changing the way modern economies work. In this book the concept of "change" is problematized in terms of flexibility and stability across these processes, examining the central issues of industrial
dynamics, structural change, and transformation.
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Futures of Organizations: Innovating to Adapt Strategy and Human Resources to Rapid Technological Change (Issues in Organization and Management)
Manufacturer: Lexington Books
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ASIN: 0669142506 |
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The Innovating Organization
Manufacturer: Sage Publications Ltd
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ASIN: 0761964347 |
Book Description
The Innovating Organization is a systematic, empirical study of the change in forms from traditional multi-divisional hierarchies to flatter, less rigid networks. The rich array of data generated by the eight current international case studies provides fresh insights into the network organization, and suggests new methodologies for organizational research. Coopers & Lybrand, BP, Unilever, Rabobank and Saab are amongst the companies surveyed.
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Innovating to Compete: Lessons for Diffusing and Managing Change in the Workplace (Jossey-Bass Management Series)
Richard E. Walton
Manufacturer: Jossey-Bass Inc Pub
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ASIN: 1555420567 |
Book Description
This issue confirms the National Civic League's continuing dedication to seek out the promising developments at the local level that can help reinvigorate our democracy. Articles celebrate the active role that citizens, in concert with local government officials and members of the private and nonprofit sectors, play in communities across the country. Contributors also highlight the potential impact of such local and state level civic engagement can have on national trends in political reform, particularly in the highly active area of campaign finance reform.
Case studies from the field include an analysis of the response to the Los Angeles disturbances a decade later that emphasizes the prominent role that grassroots organizations have had in crafting efforts to make changes there. The city manager of Chico, California, takes a searching look at the public hearing process and makes applicable suggestions for improving its efficacy as a tool for citizen involvement. Richard C. Harwood, founder and president of The Harwood Institute for Public Innovation, contributes a thoughtful essay on patriotism and the devotion we all need to bring to the public square as we take up our responsibilities for the common good.
Product Description
In 2003 the World Bank, in partnership with the Government of the People's Republic of China, began a one year-long global learning process that focused on worldwide efforts to reduce poverty along different dimensions. A series of case studies, multi-country interactive videoconferences, online dialogues, and field visits led up to the working conference in Shanghai, on May 25 - 27, 2004. Development lessons and experiences were shared and debated at this event by policymakers, politicians, donors, academics, development practitioners, civil society groups, and representatives from development institutions. After such unprecedented knowledge exchange on worldwide poverty reduction efforts, many lessons were learnt about how to accelerate development and contribute to reducing poverty. Capturing the findings from the Shanghai Global Learning Initiative, Reducing Poverty on a Global Scale attempts to contribute to the broader existing knowledge on poverty reduction and the effectiveness of aid. The objective is to enlighten development practitioners about observed achievements towards reducing poverty and the factors behind them. Each of the chapters extracts implementation lessons learnt from a subset of case studies prepared along different poverty dimensions, focusing on such factors as the role of commitment and leadership, institutional innovation, learning and experimentation, and external catalysts. Instead of recommending particular solutions or best practices, the book distills key findings from the strategically selected examples and weaves them into a topical narrative. A companion CD-ROM contains all of the case study summaries presented at the May, 2004 Shanghai conference.
Download Description
"In 2003 the World Bank, in partnership with the Government of the People's Republic of China, began a one year-long global learning process that focused on worldwide efforts to reduce poverty along different dimensions. A series of case studies, multi-country interactive videoconferences, online dialogues, and field visits led up to the working conference in Shanghai, on May 25 - 27, 2004. Development lessons and experiences were shared and debated at this event by policymakers, politicians, donors, academics, development practitioners, civil society groups, and representatives from development institutions. After such unprecedented knowledge exchange on worldwide poverty reduction efforts, many lessons were learnt about how to accelerate development and contribute to reducing poverty. Capturing the findings from the Shanghai Global Learning Initiative, Reducing Poverty on a Global Scale attempts to contribute to the broader existing knowledge on poverty reduction and the effectiveness of aid. The objective is to enlighten development practitioners about observed achievements towards reducing poverty and the factors behind them. Each of the chapters extracts implementation lessons learnt from a subset of case studies prepared along different poverty dimensions, focusing on such factors as the role of commitment and leadership, institutional innovation, learning and experimentation, and external catalysts. Instead of recommending particular solutions or best practices, the book distills key findings from the strategically selected examples and weaves them into a topical narrative. "
Book Description
This digital document is a journal article from International Journal of Industrial Organization, published by Elsevier in 2004. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
Description:
We explore heterogeneities in the determinants of innovating firms' decisions to engage in R&D cooperation, differentiating between four types of cooperation partners: competitors, suppliers, customers, and universities and research institutes (institutional cooperation). We use two matched waves of the Dutch Community Innovation Survey (in 1996 and 1998) and apply system probit estimation. We find that determinants of R&D cooperation differ significantly across cooperation types. The positive impact of firm size, R&D intensity, and incoming source-specific spillovers is weaker for competitor cooperation, reflecting greater appropriability concerns. Institutional spillovers are more generic in nature and positively impact all cooperation types. The results appear robust to potential simultaneity bias.
Book Description
This digital document is an article from Mid-Atlantic Journal of Business, published by Stillman School of Business on December 1, 1998. The length of the article is 819 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
From the supplier: Innovativeness requires leadership that is distinct from the traditional ideas concerning leadership. Developing the unique qualities of an innovation leader is necessary for the organization's survival especially in the latter 20th century. Innovation leaders have the capacity to formulate creative solutions to problems. They are not strictly categorized in a particular position. Rather, they come from the ranks of the group members who have been empowered to decide and act on their own towards a common goal.
Citation Details
Title: Leading innovating organizations.(leadership qualities)(Editorial)
Author: A.D. Amar
Publication:
Mid-Atlantic Journal of Business (Refereed)
Date: December 1, 1998
Publisher: Stillman School of Business
Volume: 34
Issue: 3
Page: 185(3)
Article Type: Editorial
Distributed by Thomson Gale
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Armored Scale Insects : Volume 4B: Armored Scale Insects (World Crop Pests)
Manufacturer: Elsevier Science
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ASIN: 0444429026 |
Book Description
Hardbound.
Average customer rating:
- not helpful and not up to date
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EndNote 1 - 2 - 3 Easy!: Reference Management for the Professional
Abha Agrawal
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Endnote Made Easy: Reference Management for theProfessional is intended for healthcare professionals (physicians, nurses, managers, etc.) and biomedical researchers engaged in writing scientific manuscripts. It aids readers in gaining an understanding of the effective use of information technology in storing, managing, retrieving, and citing references in scientific writings. It also provides step by step instruction on using Endnote, a popular reference management software.
Customer Reviews:
not helpful and not up to date .......2007-03-25
First, this book has been published in 2006 but it is based on endnote 7. The current version is endnote ten (X). Moreover, the endnote help is clearer and very easy to use. In consequence, in my opinion, this book is not a good deal
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![Heterogeneity in R&D cooperation strategies [An article from: International Journal of Industrial Organization]](http://ec1.images-amazon.com/images/I/21D5MWZG8PL.jpg)