Global Trends 2005: An Owner's Manual for the Next Decade

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Michael Mazarr, an adjunct researcher at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, tries to make sense of the end of the 20th century, identifying six fundamental trends reshaping the U.S. and the world and adopting what he calls "cautious optimism" in predicting what lies ahead. While Mazarr expects little to change in the developed Western world, he predicts instability in Africa, the Middle East, and India due to rapid population growth, disease, food and water shortages, and cultural conflicts. Advances in science and technology, he continues, will fuel rapid social change and create a global culture of free-market economies--unleashing instability in the process. World economies will increasingly be based on information, reorganizing the nature of work and increasing the gap between rich and poor; the globalization of world trade, economic activity, and communication will be met by a simultaneous rise in tribalism, and Mazarr predicts the conflict between the two will be "one of the major hallmarks of the coming decade." He also projects that a transformation of authority may result in a collapse of public confidence in all social authorities, and suggests that all of these trends will result in a worldwide feeling that things have never been so good, yet also leave people decidedly negative and pessimistic about the future. The first decade of the 21st century, Mazarr writes, will see "the most profound transition in human history," a period of both opportunity and risk. "Fate has provided us with the raw material of a new renaissance in human society, but it is up to us to make that renaissance a reality." --Linda Killian

Book Description

As social theorist Drucker pointed out, every few hundred years a sharp transformation occurs during which society rearranges itself in a variety of aspects--its worldview, its basic values, its social and political structure, its arts, its key institutions. At the end of the 20th century, we are living through precisely such a transformation. The tremendous shift from an industrial to a knowledge economy and society is generating profound new challenges even as it opens up unprecedented vistas of possibility. This "age of social transformation," to the knowledge era, Drucker wrote, "will not come to an end with the year 2000--it will not even have peaked by then." Global Trends 2005 is a look at this transition now shaking the foundations of human society. At once a vision of the future and a handbook for understanding daily events, this book will change the way you see the world--and your place in it.

Customer Reviews:

Much food for thought.......2006-01-27

Peter Drucker wrote that every few hundred years there occurs a sharp transformation and within a few short decades society rearranges itself - its worldview, its basic values, its social and political structure, its arts, its key institutions; fifty years later, there is a new world. We are living through such a transformation today in which our major advances all but wreck societies. Organized around knowledge, we see the first hints of the information age that is undermining authority and creating a uniform world - a world full of surprises because it is uncertain whether humanity will use its power effectively and wisely. Reshaping our world are four global issues, nine themes and six trends; Mazarr provides policy recommendations for each trend - a total of 32 recommendations. The global issues are demography, natural resources, the environment, and human culture. The themes are: the paradoxical and contradictory nature of this period of transition; the blurring of boundaries between disciplines, industries and social enterprises; the new social morphology of our societies is networks; there is a shift from manufactured products to knowledge as the basic good of economic life; things that have worked well may no longer succeed and we must prepare for the inevitable down slope that accompanies progress; the new moral system embraces compassion, social equity, charity, concern for the natural environment, personal responsibility, religion and spiritual life; perception is as important as the facts; major social transformations are immensely disruptive; individuals and civic associations are empowered, leveling the playing field.
Trend 1 is that we are separating into two worlds: rich, industrialized countries have clean, knowledge-based business, an aging population, declining birthrates, a shrinking work force, skyrocketing pension and health care costs while developing countries face problems of deforestation, soil erosion, untreated sewage, misuse of pesticides, dirty industry and an enormous number of young people needing child welfare, education and work. Supplies of energy, food and other resources should be sufficient for the decade to 2010 but the world's cushion is declining, with markets more susceptible to price shifts. A decisive determinant of individual and collective success is culture -values, attitudes, habits, religion, language - and visionary leadership as they shape thoughts, beliefs, commitments and decisions; some cultures, such as Taiwan and Korea, are better equipped for success in the knowledge era. Trend 2: The Engines of History are the forces producing global change and where they are taking us. Trend 3: A Human Resources Economy shows that people whose culture values education, thrift and hard work will thrive; societies will succeed or fail in this new age to a great extent based on the emphasis they place on educating their people. Trend 4: An Era of Global Tribes tells us that the world is becoming more cosmopolitan and more insular at the same time and explores what future their collision promises for humankind. In Trend 5 we see a transformation of traditional authority to knowledge era institutions, placing every form of community under pressure with devastating impact on totalitarian regimes. The next century will be one of strong decentralized religion, offering direct access to spiritual growth without the mediating institution of an organized church; tradition seems out of place and foolish rather than wise and helpful. This trend is given greater force by the emergence of a dramatically younger world population; the arrival of younger generations played a major role in many of histories great turning points. Free-flowing information encourages, even demands, that people constantly challenge and reassess the credibility of leadership figures. Our challenge is to create the conditions for a fuller freedom, in radically new conditions, with the renewing of rules and order; the alternative is social instability and perpetual political crisis. Individual empowerment results partly from growing self-awareness among knowledge-era people, leading to self-navigators with values such as self-reliance, compassion and renewed emphasis on interpersonal relationships. As old authorities decay and before new ones have arisen, a gap emerges in which institutions seem hopelessly ill-equipped to tackle the demands of the new era, resulting in a collapse in public confidence. Trend 6: A Test of Human Psychology lays out the most important psychological challenges facing humankind: the engines of alienation of the knowledge era, the distorting effects of an information culture biased towards pessimism; the psychological ramifications of an increasingly virtual, computer- and Internet-based modern culture; and the challenge of preserving cultural identities and values in a manner that does not spark conflict.
Mazarr concludes that this new society embodies greater challenges and opportunities than any previous era but we need the values and wisdom to fashion the knowledge era into the brightest flowering of human potential yet known. We need an intellectual rebirth. In a knowledge society education determines the fates of individuals and nations. Never before has learning been so important to the fate of humankind as it is today - not only for much expanded education but improved forms of it. Stronger moral and ethical standards are needed to guide human conduct rather than values of greed, personal security and profits. Societal failure to address the longing for spiritual connectedness tempts us into nonspiritual excesses that threaten to bring us to ruin. Capitalism is the most successful socioeconomic system yet known but it must be responsive to human values - treating human beings and natural ecology as something more than goods - if we are to make the knowledge era liberating and empowering rather than divisive and alienating. Capitalism depends for its success on a robust and effective set of moral and ethical values and on the foundation of a healthy society and community that it cannot itself provide. The three most important lessons are: the decisive role of education, the primacy of moral values and the need for a renewed capitalism. The most important tool is knowledge, the most important skill is the employment of knowledge and the dominant social activity is education.

Globalization and Paradoxical Tribalization.......2005-07-31

Mazarr provides a detailed description and analysis of the current state of the world, presenting six trends for coming decades. Of particular interest is his description of the interplay of Globalization and Tribalization/Regionalization, which has implications for ethnic identities.

Putting It Together.......2000-05-16

What I found wonderfully invigorating about Global Trends 2005 is that it draws upon so many vastly different strands of contemporary knowledge and understanding and weaves them together in a manner that is at once challenging, provocative, and accessible. Make no mistake, this is a rigorous exercise in holistic thinking. But it's also a fun--if sobering--read. That's because the author writes in a personal, plain-spoken manner that conveys an exceptionally bright yet level-headed way of making sense of our world as it lurches into the 21st century. Michael J. Mazarr points out more seriously complex problems on the horizon than most of us would care to think about. Yet he never acts the part of the shrill alarmist that is so typical of books of this nature. Nor, when he shifts his focus to globalization's potential for worldwide benefit (e.g., attacking Third World poverty), does he play the chirpy cheerleader that is all too often the alternative persona of futurologists. This book is an exemplary instance of well-balanced multidisciplinary thinking about our now deeply entrenched information society and the simultaneously good and bad prospects that it presents to the interdependent corners of the globe.

reliable?.......1999-09-25

would you consider reliable an author that cites on his book an incorrect chart?

Book Description

This digital document is an article from The Futurist, published by World Future Society on November 1, 1999. The length of the article is 905 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Citation Details
Title: Global Trends 2005: An Owner's Manual for the Next Decade.(Review)
Author: Lane Jennings
Publication: The Futurist (Magazine/Journal)
Date: November 1, 1999
Publisher: World Future Society
Volume: 33 Issue: 9 Page: 41

Article Type: Book Review

Distributed by Thomson Gale

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