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Deflation: Why it's coming, whether it's good or bad, and how it will affect your investments, business, and personal affairs
A. Gary Shilling Manufacturer: Lake View Publishing ProductGroup: Book Binding: Paperback Similar Items:
ASIN: 0961856246 |
Book Description
Although all eyes have been on Southeast Asia since October, it's not the only game around. A broader look shows that the financial crisis in that part of the world is to global deflation what the 1973 oil embargo was to inflation: it focuses and augments the many forces already at work. For the last two decades, governments, corporations, and new technologies have promoted actions that, given certain triggers, will push prices down.In his comprehensive new book, Deflation, A. Gary Shilling points out the deflationary forces at work in the world, analyzes the impact of the Asian financial crisis, and predicts the kind of deflation that will likely result.
Governments, for example, have done their part by reducing spending and shrinking deficits. With the Cold War over, US defense spending keeps falling dropping from 7.4% of GDP in the third quarter of 1986 to 4% in the first quarter of 1998. Continental governments endure double- digit unemployment rates to move toward the Maastricht target, deficits no more than 3% of GDP. Deregulation among utilities and services is also lowering prices. In the US, Citizens for a Sound Economy, a Republican think-tank, predicts that deregulation of the electricity market would lead to a drop of "at least 43%" in consumers' electricity bills.
Meanwhile, central banks are still fighting the last war, inflation, with higher interest rates. Corporations are adding to deflation momentum with the restructuring that started in the US and UK in the 1980s and has spread to other English-speaking lands. Global outsourcing now provides not only less expensive goods but also cheaper services, including credit card processing and computer programming. Computer and information technology has deflation written all over it. Hardware and software are notoriously prone to price cuts, and users buy the stuff to reduce their own costs.
Outside the US, newly industrialized countries as well as countries recently freed from Communism are becoming major players in the export market. The result is a global glut of products and no one to buy them. With Southeast Asia's financial woes, its consumers are not much of a market, and the US the world's happy dumping ground can only buy so much. Faced with increasing global glut, countries wanting to use exports to improve their economies are more likely than ever to devalue their currencies. No doubt a strengthening dollar is deflationary to the US, and no doubt it is currently welcomed by Washington. But what happens as global glut and weak US exports meet rising labor costs, spurred by the drum-tight US labor market, head on? What happens if a profit squeeze kills overpriced US stocks, and individual investors who rely on their equity portfolios as their savings accounts suffer big losses?
Consumers retrench. Then they watch prices fall, and in a classic move that makes deflation a self-feeding phenomenon, they wait for prices to go even lower before spending a dime.
If, by some slim chance, the Asian crisis proves to be a nonevent for the US, the Federal Reserve will no doubt tighten credit and probably precipitate a recession, preceded, as usual, by a bear market in US stocks. The net effect on consumer behavior would be the same, and as with the case of an Asian-initiated bear market, the end result would be deflation.
When we in the US think of deflation, we think of the 1930s. Its images of soup lines and shanty towns are so vivid that any other idea of deflation pales by comparison. But there was deflation after the Civil War without the financial collapse of the '30s. The deflation Dr. Shilling forecasts coming soon is more likely to be characterized by the oversupply of the late 19th century than the unemployment of the Depression.
The final chapters of Deflation explain how deflation will affect you. Should you keep your stock investments or switch to bonds? Will your company need to be restructured again? What should you do about inventories? Have you personally been saving enough? Dr. Shilling gives you 13 investment strategies, 18 business strategies, and five personal strategies that will work in the deflationary years ahead.
Be prepared. In future years we may conclude that in the summer of 1997, Asia was the trigger for global deflation.
Customer Reviews:
Shilling's use of Kondratieff theory.......2000-05-22
Excellent book, easy to read, in depth analysis.......1999-03-06
The book is filled with charts that highlight the author's message. The last several chapters on investment, business, and personal strategies are priceless.
No weasel words in this book. Lots of forecasts.
John D.
Informed & rational summary of a plausible scenario........1999-01-29
Shilling is worth reading - he thinks the west will experience `good' rather than `bad' deflation - but how deep will the Deflation be and how long will it last? He could have usefully studied natural resources in more depth; after all, this is where deflation hit hardest and earliest. I will read him again.
This book is a MUST read for investors!.......1998-11-30
Compelling arguments; 'must read' for investors........1998-11-17
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Regulation of Network Utilities: The European Experience
Manufacturer: Oxford University Press, USA ProductGroup: Book Binding: Hardcover ASIN: 0199244154 |
Book Description
Propelled by deep technical, economic, and cultural changes, network utilities have, in the last twenty years, entered a new era. Since competition has been widely introduced and promoted, we have experienced a radical change in the structure of the industries and the role of the state authorities. Their role in managing monopolies has evolved into regulating new forms of markets, which has resulted in the creation of independent regulatory authorities. These new public bodies work with governments to try and reconcile the needs of competition and public service missions. This suggests the use of recent developments in economic theory to handle complex problems. This volume offers an exploration by scholars and regulators of the new regulatory regimes across Europe. The first part presents the pioneering experiences of the United Kingdom and Sweden. The United Kingdom has quickly chosen to establish powerful and independent individual regulators. Reforms in Sweden have been more gradual and regulators have, in the first instance, acted mainly as mediators. Part two is devoted to second wave developments that took place in various European countries, i.e. France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, countries where the legal tradition is less conducive to the concept of independent regulators. There the regulators are often (but not always) less powerful and meet more obstacles in their efforts to prevent either the formation of oligopolies or the resistance of incumbent monopolies. In Germany another problem has emerged as the federal tradition prevents the creation of independent regulators in certain key sectors. The contributions in the third part of the volume throw some light on the problems of coordinating national regulations. One can observe the continuous emergence of modes of cooperation between national regulators, as well as European authorities. Faced with certain categories of problem, the European authorities are themselves led to act as common regulators. The countries of central and eastern Europe, which are progressively converging towards the general economic model of the West, are more and more concerned with the accompanying regulation problems. Last but not least, the Internet raises worldwide problems of regulation that are beginning to be seriously considered.
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Regulation of Network Utilities: The European Experience [A book review from: European Journal of Political Economy]
A. Goldstein Manufacturer: Elsevier ProductGroup: Book Binding: Digital ASIN: B000RQYBVG |
Book Description
This digital document is a journal article from European Journal of Political Economy, published by Elsevier in 2004. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
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Regulation of Network Utilities : The European Experience
Claude Henry; Michel Matheu; Alain Jeunema^itre Manufacturer: Oxford University Press, USA ProductGroup: Book Binding: Paperback ASIN: B000OLAUL4 |
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Pesticide Application Methods
G. A. Matthews Manufacturer: Blackwell Publishing Limited ProductGroup: Book Binding: Hardcover ASIN: 0632054735 |
Book Description
A standard work for all those involved with crop protection, this fully revised edition provides up-to-date information on the different types of application techniques and how they should be used to ensure efficient and effective pest control.Detailed information is provided on the role of chemical control in crop protection, discussing targets, formulations and droplets, spray quality and the choice of nozzles; improvements in the design of new equipment; safety precautions and maintenance issues. Particular attention is given to include new information on engineering controls, the application of biological pesticides, the use of different types of hydraulic nozzles, buffer zones and decreasing environmental pollution.
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Analytical Methods for Pesticides and Plant Growth Regulators: Principles, Statistics, and Applications (Analytical Methods for Pesticides & Plant Growth Regulators)
Gunter Zweig Manufacturer: Academic Press ProductGroup: Book Binding: Hardcover ASIN: 0127843159 |
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Analytical Methods for Pesticides, Plant Growth Regulators, and Food Additives (Principles, Methods, and General Applications, Volume 1)
Manufacturer: Academic Press ProductGroup: Book Binding: Hardcover ASIN: B000LRMOB0 |
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Chemical Methods for the Control of Arthropod Vectors and Pests of Public Health Importance
World Health Organization Manufacturer: World Health Organization ProductGroup: Book Binding: Paperback ASIN: 924154175X |
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Marking methods for improving aerial application of forest pesticides (USDA Forest Service research note PNW)
Bohdan Maksymiuk Manufacturer: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Forest and Range Experiment Station ProductGroup: Book Binding: Unknown Binding ASIN: B0006WALSI |
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Pesticide Residues in Foods: Methods, Techniques, and Regulations (Chemical Analysis: A Series of Monographs on Analytical Chemistry and Its Applications)
W. George Fong , H. Anson Moye , James N. Seiber , and John P. Toth Manufacturer: Wiley-Interscience ProductGroup: Book Binding: Hardcover ASIN: 0471574007 |
Book Description
Advances in analytical chemistry methodology now allow us to detect the most minute trace amounts of pesticides. As this capacity grows, so does public concern about toxic contamination, resulting in stricter government regulations and a growing demand for even more sensitive, precise, and reliable analysis.
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Residue Analysis in Food: Principles and Applications
Manufacturer: CRC ProductGroup: Book Binding: Hardcover ASIN: 9057024411 |
Book Description
Residue analysis in food is an essential science in terms of the number of laboratories and analysts involved worldwide and the range of analytical techniques available. This text uniquely combines the principles and applications of the various techniques employed in residue analysis, so as to provide the reader with a thorough understanding and practical demonstration of the science of residue analysis in food. The various techniques employed in residue analysis are described in detail in this book. Each chapter deals with the principles underlying the techniques and illustrates practical applications of the technique through examples from the scientific literature. Written by established scientists working in the areas of technique development and application to residue analysis, the text describes the sequence of the analytical procedure, from sample treatment through to residue determination. Of interest to all scientists in the field of residue analysis and food safety, this text is an essential reference for practising residue analysts and researchers.
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Another Glyphosate Trait. : An article from: Farm Journal
Andrew Burchett Manufacturer: Farm Journal Media ProductGroup: Book Binding: Digital ASIN: B000B7OC8I Release Date: 2005-08-30 |
Book Description
This digital document is an article from Farm Journal, published by Farm Journal Media on January 23, 2005. The length of the article is 1180 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
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Not a Good Match. : An article from: Farm Journal
Andrew Burchett Manufacturer: Thomson Gale ProductGroup: Book Binding: Digital ASIN: B000CC40AW Release Date: 2005-11-14 |
Book Description
This digital document is an article from Farm Journal, published by Thomson Gale on March 10, 2005. The length of the article is 644 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
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Analytical Methods for Pesticides and Plant Growth Regulations: Specific Applications (Analytical Methods for Pesticides & Plant Growth Regulators)
Manufacturer: Academic Press ProductGroup: Book Binding: Hardcover ASIN: 0127843167 |
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Hormones and Animal Social Behavior (Monographs in Behavior and Ecology)
Elizabeth Adkins-Regan Manufacturer: Princeton University Press ProductGroup: Book Binding: Paperback Similar Items:
ASIN: 0691092478 |
Book Description
Research into the lives of animals in their natural environments has revealed a rich tapestry of complex social relationships and previously unsuspected social and mating systems. The evolution of this behavior is increasingly well understood. At the same time, laboratory scientists have made significant discoveries about how steroid and peptide hormones act on the nervous system to shape behavior. An exciting and rapidly progressing hybrid zone has developed in which these two fields are integrated, providing a fuller understanding of social behavior and the adaptive functions of hormones.
This book is a guide to these fascinating connections between animal social behavior and steroid and peptide hormones--a synthesis designed to make it easier for graduate students and researchers to appreciate the excitement, engage in such integrative thinking, and understand the primary literature. Throughout, Elizabeth Adkins-Regan emphasizes concepts and principles, hypothesis testing, and critical thinking. She raises unanswered questions, providing an unparalleled source of ideas for future research. The chapter sequence is by levels of biological organization, beginning with the behavior and hormones of individuals, proceeding to social relationships and systems, and from there to development, behavioral evolution over relatively short time scales, life histories and their evolution, and finally evolution over longer time scales. The book features studies of a wide variety of wild and domestic vertebrates along with some of the most important invertebrate discoveries.
Customer Reviews:
Hormones and Animal Social Behavior (monograph) -Reviewed by Dr. Raju S. Radder.......2006-11-08
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Pheromones of Social Bees
John Brand Free Manufacturer: Comstock Publishing ProductGroup: Book Binding: Hardcover ASIN: 0801420040 |
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The hormonal and behavioral response to group formation, seasonal changes, and restraint stress in the highly social Malayan Flying Fox (Pteropus vampyrus) ... [An article from: Hormones and Behavior]
D.M. Reeder , N.S. Kosteczko , T.H. Kunz , and Widmaier Manufacturer: Elsevier ProductGroup: Book Binding: Digital ASIN: B000RR8O40 |
Book Description
This digital document is a journal article from Hormones and Behavior, published by Elsevier in 2006. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
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Neuropeptidergic regulation of affiliative behavior and social bonding in animals [An article from: Hormones and Behavior]
M.M. Lim , and L.J. Young Manufacturer: Elsevier ProductGroup: Book Binding: Digital ASIN: B000P6XLIM |
Book Description
This digital document is a journal article from Hormones and Behavior, published by Elsevier in 2006. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
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Comportamiento social y hormonas sexuales en Saimiri sciureus (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas. Monografias de ciencia moderna, no. 82. ... Biologica de Donana, [Publicaciones] no. 2)
Fernando Alvarez Manufacturer: Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas ProductGroup: Book Binding: Unknown Binding ASIN: 840003838X |
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Hormonal influences on dominance and social behavior in the rat
Barbara H Doran Manufacturer: Wheaton College ProductGroup: Book Binding: Unknown Binding ASIN: B0006WK3O0 |
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