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Risk, according to James Grant, is our enemy. The current, seemingly endless run-up of the stock market is bound to crash around our ears at some point, sooner rather than later. The flood of cash that is lifting the current consumer economy stems from imprudent credit decisions by banks and, by extension, by the largest bank of all, the Federal Reserve. The flight of capital from bonds into mutual funds is only the most visible symbol of an America that has lost sight of fundamental economic forces. And so on. The writer and publisher of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, Grant is a born contrarian, directing investors into commodities markets, which have been flat for 15 years, and away from the booming stock market. You can disagree with his prognosis, but it's hard to argue with his diagnosis. The boom of the 1990s can't last forever.
Book Description
In Boom and Bust in the American Century, James Grant tells why the financial prosperity of the 1990s is destined to collapse. This is a book about cycles of optimism and pessimism, of bull markets and bear markets, and of orthodoxy and heresy. Boom and Bust in the American Century is sophisticated financial writing by a gifted author and analyst at the top of his form.
Customer Reviews:
Misleading Title.......2007-04-18
I was hoping to dive into this book and find proposals on what to do about all the Mexicans that have poured into this country due to our God-given prosperity but instead the author delves into a boring story of buildings in 1950's New York and rental rates.
Verdict: Boring and irrelevant.
Markets are inevitable, irresistible, and indispensable........2005-12-28
Record levels in marginal debt, speculation frenzy, and risk ceasing to have negative implications because financial prosperity suggested a lack of business volatility, as financial authorities stamped out emerging crisis and characterized financial prosperity, in 1996. Stability had become the goal of national economic policy. The fed fixed the 1994, Mexico Peso devaluation crisis and at the about the same time removed unwanted fluctuations in the commodities market; in 1996, the US government's intervention in oil and cattle markets drove upward adjustments in price; intervention in the copper market by Bank of Japan, Bank of England and help from regulatory authorities of United Kingdom and US coordinated policy and price for copper. Feats of macroeconomic management have only deepened the faith of steady returns through patient investment. Money poured into equity mutual funds in the 1996s but the equity never came. The growing faith for stability became a powerful force for instability. Adding equipment for growth does not create value; this can and will lead to over capacity; what is needed is an increase in productivity that matches demand.
Markets are inevitable, irresistible, and indispensable. Even if a central bank could create a state of economic perfection, measure out growth in the ideal, and control non-inflationary does of money supply; humans would respond by overpaying for stocks and bonds and would not stop until painful overvaluation occurred, as the marginal rate of return would fall short of expectation and the price return to the mean. The function of Bear markets and cyclical down turns is cut short price error.
In the 1990s, the Fed discount rate stood at 3% and caused a stock boom that saved the banks. The stock market boom was touched off by low interest rates. The Fed had bailout the Bank of New England previously and the boom helped the New England economy recover and equity capital grew propelling bank earnings to reach 10.5% per annum. The Stock market started worrying about bank prosperity and FDIC was overflowing with funds reviving from near bankruptcy. Banks implemented prosperity attenuation plans 1) repurchased their own stock 2) merged with other banks 3) and stepped up dividends attempting to neutralize capital. Investors began driving up the P/E of small banks betting they would merge with bigger banks. The big banks had lower valuation of shares and fatter dividends than the smaller banks. The 1980s there were 4,185 national banks with $114 billion in equity and by 1995, the national bank number had dropped to 2,861 with $190 billions of equity. In the 90s, it was believed that $35 billion of equity would be paid out in dividends leaving a $65 billion problem. Shareholders wanted the benefits of compounding of their equity. Marginal interest rates were cheap but not so cheap as to attract clients leading from a boom to a bust. Too much lending would lead to distortions in the credit card boom. The credit card boom was hazardous: 5 percent of CC payments dropped to 2 percent of total payments; higher risk clients were accepted because it was known, they cared higher amounts of debt even though default risk was high; increased speculation in credit card debt turning a profit and encouraged banks too extend credit.
Superb financial history by a witty writer........1997-04-11
For an extensive and mostly favorable review of Mr. Grant's, The Trouble with Prosperity, by an economist that shares Mr. Grants's sympathies with the Austrian school of econoimics go to the following URL:
Grant again shows mastery of market history.......1997-01-30
Mr. Grant's book is good and again he demonstrates great knowledge of the history of financial markets. His writing can be a little bit dry at times, making it sometimes difficult to follow the thread of argument in each chapter. Grant gives a compelling case that the cyclical nature of booms and busts isn't over and suggests several times that these cycles are really beneficial to a country's economic health. He suggests that efforts by governments (notably the Japanese) to suppress the effects of natural market cycles inevitably lead to disaster. I think, however, his thesis is undercut by his own research that suggests that moderate economic expansions yield only moderate economic contractions. Several times he suggests that we should strive for stronger expansions, thereby ultimately leading to more severe contractions, but never really provides a compelling case as to why. In other words, Grant does not present persuasive reasons as to why moderate economic cylces are inferior. In any event, this is another first rate book by Grant. I strongly recommend it for those people who think markets (and economies) only go UP
Book Description
Because they're doing the day-to-day work, front-line employees see many problems and opportunities their managers don't. But most organizations fail to realize this potentially extraordinary source of revenue-enhancing ideas. The authors of "Ideas Are Free use real-world examples from their work with hundreds of organizations to show how to exploit the virtually free, perpetually renewable resource of employee ideas. The book explains how sustainable competitive advantages in areas ranging from productivity and responsiveness to cost reduction and quality assurance are only possible with the attention to detail that comes from getting and implementing large numbers of ideas from employees. Subjects include how to make ideas part of everyone's job, how to set up and run an effective process for handling ideas, how to help people come up with more and better ideas, and how a strong flow of ideas can have a profound impact on an organization's culture.
Customer Reviews:
Great book on idea programs.......2007-08-28
Interested in learning more about idea programs, I've read this book. It's short and to the point. It addresses the importance of small ideas for the improvement of the company and the engagement of its employees. Also very important is the chapter related to rewards and the counter-intuitive effects
Employees with ideas = wealth.......2006-04-13
Alan G. Robinson and Dean M. Schroeder's IDEAS ARE FREE is for employers who would tap into the riches of employee ideas and insights. Employees are quite opt to recognize both problems and opportunitiestheir managers pass by - but most organizations don't encourage sharing such insights, much less reward them. IDEAS ARE FREE: HOW THE IDEA REVOLUTION IS LIBERATING PEOPLE AND TRANSFORMING ORGANIZATIONS shows how to tap this hidden wealth.
Highly recommended reading for all business consultants, corporate executives and departmental managers.......2006-04-04
Ideas Are Free: How The Idea Of Revolution Is Liberating People And Transforming Organizations by Alan G. Robinson (Isenberg School of Management at the University of Massachusetts) and Dean M. Schroeder (Associate Dean and Director of Graduate Programs in Management at the College of Business Administrations at Valparaiso University) is an innovative guide to saving money, effort, time and also provides an informative introduction to entirely new ways of doing business with front-line employees, making the most out of opportunities and maximizing the benefits of sound, effective management. Robinson and Schroeder aptly examine the intricacies of the business life and include an analysis of a more prosperous, ease-filled advancement for opportunities granted to all, and situational manipulation for a more competently finalized project. Ideas Are Free is very highly recommended reading for all business consultants, corporate executives and departmental managers.
Interesting ideas .......2006-03-12
The authors show how important it is to gather ideas and encourage people to think creatively. I wish they would have described more how they could gather these ideas more effectively.
Ideas are Free.......2005-08-22
If you are starting a suggestion process or revamping an established one, this is the book to read and apply. Robinson and Schroeder have boiled down a thousand pages of material and years of research on the subject into 218 readable pages.
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Sorghum and Millet Diseases 2000 (World Agriculture)
John F. Leslie
Manufacturer: Blackwell Publishing Limited
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ASIN: 0813803896 |
Book Description
Sorghum is the fifth most important cereal crop in the world. Both sorghum and pearl millet are important and sometimes indispensable for the survival of man and domestic animals in austere, dry environments. Their genetic diversity and numerous uses will hold appeal for citizens of the Third Millennium who seek food diversification in order to increase enjoyment, health, and convenience. Unfortunately, sorghum and millet remain susceptible to many diseases, diseases that can cause economic loss and jeopardize the food security of farmers as well as consumers and middlemen who rely on their crops.This landmark reference contains the global sorghum and millet pathology community 's decennial summary of diseases and work in progress based primarily on contributions to the Third Global Conference on Sorghum and Millet Diseases in September 2000, sponsored by INTSORMIL, ICRISAT, and INIFAP. That international review focused on integrated management of sorghum and millet diseases for the 21st century and the importance of these crops in agro-ecosystems. The participants reviewed disease status in national, regional, and global contexts as priorities were adjusted for the next decade. The importance of proper pathogen identification and the use of a population biology approach were emphasized.Editor John Leslie has expanded the book 's coverage beyond the conference presentations so as to guarantee a well-rounded treatment of sorghum and millet disease. One hundred and ninety-seven authors from thirty countries contribute to a truly global picture.This critical review provides a unique long-term analysis of different issues over the last quarter century, a considered summary of the current critical problems, and an evaluation of the sorghum and millet community 's progress since its previous meeting in 1988. Perhaps the book 's greatest value lies in defining the research agenda for these crops and their diseases for the next ten years. As such, it is an indispensable resource for plant pathologists and other crop scientists, policy makers, sociologists, and others involved in tropical or sub-tropical agriculture.This work is based on the Mexico 2000 meeting under the auspices of ICRISAT (International Crops Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics) and INTSORMIL (International Sorghum and Millet Collaborative Research Support Program).Sorghum and millet are very important agronomic crops in many parts of the world, specifically in the semi-arid regions in warm areas. The crops are of great significance in supplying food and feed in the developing areas of Latin America, Africa, and Asia.
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Disease Analysis Through Genetics and Biotechnology: Interdisciplinary Bridges to Improved Sorghum and Millet Crops
Manufacturer: Iowa State Press
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ASIN: 0813821258 |
Book Description
Jung's last major work, completed in his 81st year, on the synthesis of the opposites in alchemy and psychology.
Customer Reviews:
Dreamlike & Inexhaustible.......2006-12-07
Jung seems to write from the dream state; associations interleaved with digressions punctuated by potent and startling images. This is his most satisfying book for me because it has the simplest premise but is also the largest and richest. He stretches out enormously within a limited range, gathering a life-time of inquiry into a writhing basket of conflicting thought. This method illustrates perfectly how deep experience can become when meditated upon and scrutinized and when tangents are whole-heartedly encouraged and darksides allowed to bloom. No need to hop-scotch around the world, just look into the pile of dead ants beneath your radiator and let your mind wander. The conjunction of opposites: perhaps Jung's emblem for the source of life, the alembic, where all intellectual and emotional births occur. Read and reread this book to step through the microcosmic door into unlimited life right where you are.
Transcendental.......2006-06-06
This is the 3rd & culminating text of Jung's CW trilogy on alchemy (see CW11 Psychology & Alchemy & CW12 Alchemical Studies before reading this one). Jung obviously devoted considerable time & effort into the study of alchemy--because he perceived an amazing parallel with his theories/model of the psyche & the process of individuation. I think it amazed him that the alchemists intuitively evoked such general principles of transcendental alchemy prior to the development of western science--indeed, they were simultaneously immersed in this development such that modern chemistry evolved from it. Oddly, some are now advocating the use of chemicals (drugs) in lieu of psychology--e.g. for schizophrenia. Maybe the tail is wagging the horse? Of course, this is a difficult text. The alchemical series may be the most difficult of Jung's already difficult texts. But, as Jung demonstrated himself, sometimes the way to learn is to just jump in feet first--absorb as you can. Eventually, the material will start to sink in--subconsciously if not consciously. Give it a whirl. This text also has some VERY interesting quotes:
p. 82 "There is something serious in every joke.
p. 125 If one does not understand a person, one tends to regard him as a fool.
p. 200 It seems as if Christianity had been from the outset the religion of chronic squabbles, and even now it does everything in its power never to let the squabbles rest. Remarkably enough, it never stops preaching the gospel of neighborly love.
p. 376 The creative mystic was ever a cross for the Church, but it is to him that we own what is best in humanity...'where there is no vision, the people perish...The mystics are channels through which a little knowledge of reality filters down into our human universe of ignorance and illusion: A totally unmystical world would be a world totally blind and insane...the few theocentric saints who exist at any given moment are able in some slight measure to qualify and mitigate the poisons which society generates within itself by its political and economic activities. In the gospel phrase, theocentric saints are the salt which preserves the world from decay.' (quoting Aldous Huxley in Grey Eminence 1943, pp. 98, *296.
p. 487 Fantasies always mean something when they are spontaneous.
p. 519 Never do human beings speculate more, or have more opinions, than about things which they do not understand.
p. 536 Nothing changes anything else without itself being changed." How profound can you get?
For fans of the genre only.......2004-01-15
I did not find this book to be as useful as most of the other volumes of Carl Jung's collected works. Keep in mind that I love and respect Carl Jung as much as anyone; I have devoted nearly a year of my life solidly to reading Jung's collected works, and they have been the source of much joy, fulfillment, and enlightenment for me. However, _Mysterium Conjunctionis_ has contributed very little to these positive changes I have experienced, for the following reasons:
1. The footnotes. Never in my life have I seen a book so festooned with footnotes as this one. They take up over half the book - on any given page, there is about one inch of text along the top of the page, and the rest is covered by footnotes. This problem is exacerbated by the fact that these footnotes contain little of any interest to me.
2. This book comes across as nothing more than a massive attempt on the part of Jung to justify and support the ideas he has had over the years. Often the book reads like some kind of list of ancient alchemists and mythmakers who have foreshadowed and echoed Jung's sentiments. Many paragraphs are devoted to listing names which will be unfamilier to almost everyone, capped off by footnotes explaining who these people were. Rather than concoct new ideas, Jung seems to have opted to dig up ancient figures who can "back up" some of his major ideas. It seems like Jung is trying to fend off critics who have accused him of putting forth unsubstantiated ideas rather than cater to his loyal fans who already trust him.
3. The overall feel of the book is simply a field guide to witches and warlocks. Granted, Jung discusses these phantoms and myths from the standpoint of depth psychology and general "psychic phenomena", and does not seem to be advocating a literal-historical belief in all these myths. However, we are bombarded with myth after esoteric myth throughout the book, while Jung leaves it to us to interpret the symbolic value and modern psychological parallels of these myths. Very rarely does Jung give us a useful interpretation of what these myths should mean to us.
4. This book is very self-indulgent on Jung's part. It consists almost entirely of Jung's most esoteric "pet" concepts, like archetypes, alchemy, ancient myths, and sorcery. It is precisely these strange "pet" concepts which have given fodder to many of Jung's critics, who accuse him of being obsessed with ancient rituals which have little relevance to the modern day world.
Overall, I recommend this book only to those readers of Jung who want to go all the way and read every one of the collected works; this book should be near the bottom of the list. Do not read this book unless you have already read volumes 6,7,8,9,10,11, and 12 of the CW.
Jungýs quintessential work on Alchemy........2001-02-12
"The light that gradually dawns on him consists in his understanding that his fantasy is a real psychic process which is happening to him personally." (Jung p. 528-529) This sentence from the book sums-up its content.
In this work Jung demonstrates that Alchemy was a precursor to modern Western psychological insight. Jung draws a "process map" of the Alchemy in this volume, in which he laboriously (but not tediously) shows that the steps the alchemists took to bring about the transformation of matter. Jung suggests that this process is a metaphoric representation of a process some humans travel to reach a level of consciousness that includes and unites the unseen (transcendent) reality with the visible experience.
It can be read as an interesting intellectual insight into earlier Western thought, or it can be used by an individual as a guide through the process of psychological transformation. This work is essential to anyone on the path of transformation and who looks to Jung as a guide on that path. It is not for a casual reader of Jung.
Jung's last big book, and his richest...........2000-06-02
Jung rises to unscaled heights in this scholarly and alchemically informed book that in its ultimate reach points to the One World of Gerhard Dorn and an ultimate synthesis of soul, soma, and spirit with the pleromatic Ground of everything. Along with AION and ANSWER TO JOB this may be Jung's deepest book. Highly technical. (See also Edinger's THE MYSTERIUM LECTURES.)
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Mysterium Coniunctionis: Obras Completas (Filosofia)
C. G. Jung
Manufacturer: Trotta Editorial S a
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Binding: Hardcover
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ASIN: 8481645133 |
Books:
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- Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes And How To Correct Them: Lessons From The New Science Of Behavioral Economics
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