The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, Revised Edition

Book Description

[Man] invented a concept that has since been variously viewed as a vice, a crime, a business, a pleasure, a type of magic, a disease, a folly, a weakness, a form of sexual substitution, an expression of the human instinct. He invented gambling.
Richard Epstein's classic book on gambling and its mathematical analysis covers the full range of games from penny matching, to blackjack and other casino games, to the stock market (including Black-Scholes analysis). He even considers what light statistical inference can shed on the study of paranormal phenomena. Epstein is witty and insightful, a pleasure to dip into and read and rewarding to study.

Customer Reviews:

tough to review a book like this.......2007-08-10

From the number of stars above, you know I really liked this book. It is difficult to review such a book because you have to think about the intended audience. I think the intended audience is me; someone who is mathematically literate, who is looking over probability and statistical thinking applied to games of chance, or who might be otherwise modestly interested in such. The intended audience is probably not a professional probabilist. The intended audience is definitely not your average gambler. As such, the specialist and the average person may not be well served by this book. But, for the scientist, engineer or recreational mathematician who might be reviewing material on combinatorics, probability and statistics, or interested in applying it to different "games" (like markets), this book is a work of beauty. The author is witty, informative and he picks lively subject: I was never bored. A most entertaining way to review probability in general, and the mathematics of gambling. There are other books on the mathematics of gambling games which treat the subject differently, or in greater detail, but for a medium-light read on the subject: one that includes actual mathematics, without drowning in detail and formalism, it's hard to beat Epstein's book.

Excellent Resource!.......2006-09-07

The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic is a superbly written book comtaining much knowledge about gambling and assessing the odds for specific games. Epstein begins with an overview of statistics and gambling, followed by chapters on specific items, like dic and coins, and specific games, like blackjack, bridge, and even chess. One caveat: you need more than a rudimentary knowledge of statistics to fully appreciate this book. Also, the book was written in the 1970's before poker (in general) and hold 'em (in specific) became popular. If you are buying The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic to analyze poker, I would recommend looking elsewhere.

Disappointing and Often Uninsightful.......2004-03-13

Some parts are interesting, and the writing can be entertaining, but the book is short on insight and clarity and long on tedious tables and uninterpreted computations.

Buy this if you already know probability and would like to see -some- applications and cute games.

Don't buy it if you want insight into particular games; especially, the blackjack and bridge sections (and meager poker section) have virtually no value.

I am a graduate student in mathematics, and enjoy probability theory and games: I should be the ideal audience.
The math is no problem for me, but much is boring, and much time is spent writing huge tables without giving much insight.

Research articles in statistics are easier to read, and far more informative.

The math background is awful: if you don't already know it, don't learn it here.
[Instead, see "The Cartoon Guide to Statistics", or Feller's "Intro to Probability"]
The writing is willfully obscure and florid (though, admittedly,
entertaining): gymkhana, panjandrum, kubiagenesis?

My main objection is the lack of insight: the author does (mostly) correct computations and statements but seldom shows much depth of understanding and rarely conveys any to the reader.

Rather than answering questions or giving examples that convey the meaning of the theory, how it lets you understand questions, Epstein does many unillustrative examples.

This book won't teach you to understand games and gambling, which it could do, and should do.

At best, it provides a basis from which you can (after too much work) begin to understand games. This is not because the subject is that hard (at least not what Epstein covers) -- it's because the material is undigested and Epstein is a poor expositor.

If you want to get something out of this book, be prepared to do the work that Epstein hasn't, and to look at more modern and insightful references.

Here's an example: how many times do you need to shuffle a deck before it's essentially random? Very natural question, of big interest in gambling. Epstein gives a very slick argument, one of the gems of the book (measure entropy of a shuffle) that you need at least 5 shuffles -- but beyond that just writes some equations for 2 shuffles of a 4-card deck and says that a computer would help, and instead tabulates that 18 perfect shuffles of a 58-card deck return it to the original state.

The rest of the book is like this: some question begging for study, perhaps an insight, and then irrelevant and pedantic computations and tables.

There are gems in here (it's a grab-bag), and the writing is often amusing, but it's a frustrating read: it could be so much better.

Very Hard to Find Info.......2003-11-16

Don't read this book if you're a poker player who knows how to divide your outs by number of unseen cards but never took any serious math courses. This is a serious mathematical treatment of gambling.

If you want a more rigorous treatment of the general statistical theory involved in gambling (in general, not just for poker) then this is a book you MUST read. Are you a full or part-time mathematician? Are you someone who took some math courses and is interested in learning about how to mathematically describe different games that involve gambling? Are you wanting to write a computer program to simulate statistical games based on solid mathematics and understand your program? This book is something you don't want to overlook if you answered "yes" to any of those questions. If you answered with a resounding "no" to all of them and are just interested in a particular game and aren't mathematically inclined then you want to look elsewhere.

Kubeiagenesis.......2003-02-01

To the reader who was frustrated by the title of Chapter one, 'Kubeiagenesis', and could not find a definition.

-genesis, is first defined as a suffix, meaning 'origin'.
Kubeia comes from The New Testament Greek Lexicon.

Kubeia (koo-bi'-ah). Definition 1. dice playing 2. metaphor for the deception of men, because dice players sometimes cheated and defrauded their fellow players.

Translated to english in Ephesians as both 'sleight' (KJV) and 'trickery' (NAS).

Clearly, Kubeiagenesis is meant to be the origin of sleight, trickery, and deception.

That it is the first word of the text may be to inform the reader that what follows may be nonintuitive -- but is well defined, documented, and referenced. You may find yourself reading several of the referenced texts before completing the book if you are going to absorb it all.

This book is the Bible on the subject. The author brilliantly interweaves relevant stories, and shows connections to disciplines outside mathematics and gaming. If you simply want answers and don't care how they were calculated, try some of the other texts offered. If you want to understand the subject -- buy this book.

Amazon.com

Digital Aboriginal, by Mikela Tarlow with Philip Tarlow, proposes a rather unique approach for those seeking innovative ways to stay abreast of today's high-tech business environment: reach back to the "magical, networked, multidimensional world" of the aborigines for inspiration and direction. The authors--she's a specialist in organizational learning; he's an internationally recognized artist--believe knowledge of the nomadic ways of the desert meshes perfectly with the modern needs of the workplace. In four sections that look into aboriginal behavior in the context of the digital age, they show how various key aspects can be appropriated with mostly familiar strategies and skills. They do this by examining information as a digital commodity; myths, stories, and rituals and the shaping of culture and commerce; independence, privacy, and human interaction in relation to peak performance; and moving permanently outside the box on the road to living differently. Scores of companies from Home Depot and Coca-Cola to small Web developers and consultancies are cited for their relevant applications in specific areas, and extensive sidebars in each section address the Grateful Dead Theory of Marketing, branding through entertainment, the freelance residents of Free Agent Nation, "seeing with new eyes," and other appropriate topics. --Howard Rothman

Book Description

Customer Reviews:

If written today, this would be a hit!.......2007-04-05

Here's the amazing thing about Digital Aboriginal... it was written in 2002! Based on the information gathered through their research, Mikela and Philip actually touched on technology advancements and new businesses that had not even existed yet.

This book is a must read for those of you that would like to understand human behavior and it's impact on how the Internet is changing the world we live in and how we are living in the world. This is a fantastic book.

A must read for any serious business person........2002-12-11

This book is about business and how it is evolving faster than the speed of light. This book will help enlighten you on how and why you must consider technology as the way to enhance and grow your business from the inside out. Your customers expect it, your prospects expect it and your employees will too.

Technology can pave the way to a future you may not have envisioned yet. Hold on to your hats - it's going to be an exciting ride! This book will help you be a part of the POSITIVE side of the inevitable.

An incredible journey!.......2002-08-10

I love this book! Few business books have ever inspired me to buy multiple copies for friends and colleagues but none has ever kept me up at night like this amazing work.

Drawing on the metaphor of Australian nomad culture, the Tarlows weave a web ranging from the implications of intellectual property practices on ALL businesses to the value of co-designing experience and storytelling over passive media. The final chapters on idea communities, social genius, trust and tribalmind are both mind-blowing and hopeful.

Perhaps what I enjoy the most about this book is the tension between future vision and present practicality. In many ways, Digital Aboriginal suggests a way to navigate the future using imagination, ethics and a heightened sense of participation in the world.

I cannot recommend this work highly enough!

Who Owns the Wind?.......2002-06-25

Mikela and Philip Tarlow invite the reader to deliberate this question by sharing their wisdom and knowledge about the Aboriginal belief in the connectivity of relationships. As a reader, an observer of the story, you will travel through time both past and future, chapter by chapter, experiencing the opportunity to dream about the possibilities of a new business design where ownership ideas are replaced with a regard for creativity and innovation. You are brought to an intersection in time where ideas create a place of order and rules are forever rewritten. You will not be able to resist being part of an evolution of both spirit and thought.

Product Description

Understanding the nature and appropriate management of soils for roads, houses, buildings, and other human-engineered artificial environments is of concern to soil scientists, land managers, environmental scientists, and biologists. Challenges include waste disposal, pest management, erosion and sediment control, construction, and minimization of radon risk. The manner in which we manage and preserve this valuable natural resource influences the stability and beauty of our communities, as well as the quality of life and the environment.

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Soils in the Urban Environment

Manufacturer: Blackwell Publishing Limited
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

Soil Science | Agricultural Sciences | Science | Subjects | Books

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ASIN: 0632029889

Book Description

Urban areas contain a wide variety of open spaces, yet much of this has evolved under the pressures of human population with minimal management. The last 40 years have seen problems of varying severity begin to appear, including contamination, erosion, acidification and compaction, focussing attention on the importance of the soil cover, the need for better understanding of it and the need for its protection. This book is a review of the state of the art of the science of soil in urban areas. Based on a meeting organised by the Nature Conservancy Council and the British Society of Soil Science, the nine chapters cover soil classification, contamination by waste and metals, physical and biological properties, nutrient provision and cycling, vegetation, and soil

Assessing the applicability of the V-I-S model to map urban land use in the developing world: Case study of Yogyakarta, Indonesia [An article from: Computers, Environment and Urban Systems]

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Assessing the applicability of the V-I-S model to map urban land use in the developing world: Case study of Yogyakarta, Indonesia [An article from: Computers, Environment and Urban Systems]
H. Setiawan , R. Mathieu , and M. Thompson-Fawcett
Manufacturer: Elsevier
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital

Elsevier | By Publisher | e-Docs | Formats | Books
ASIN: B000P6NY20

Book Description

This digital document is a journal article from Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, published by Elsevier in 2006. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Description:
The extensive expansion of urban centres over agricultural land in Indonesia is poorly monitored due to the ill-equipped land monitoring system. The objective of this study was to assess the applicability of the vegetation-impervious surface-soil (V-I-S) model in classifying land use in the context of medium-sized and densely populated cities of developing countries. The V-I-S model describes the urban environment as a linear combination of vegetation, impervious surface and soil. As such, it is well suited to relate remotely sensed data, which are closely related to land cover, to biophysical aspects of urbanising environments. A Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper image acquired in June 1994 (dry season) was used to demonstrate the usefulness of the V-I-S model to map urban land use of Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The V-I-S model was applied in a hierarchical classification scheme, in which each level of the hierarchy was designed to segment one or more land use classes considering each component of the V-I-S model. The performance of this approach was evaluated by comparison to a standard maximum likelihood classification. Official land use maps produced in 1994 were used to validate both classifications. The results showed that the V-I-S model applied in the hierarchical classification scheme provides more accurate land use maps (80% overall accuracy) than the maximum likelihood algorithm (53% overall accuracy). The higher accuracy is evidence of the relationships between the V-I-S model and urban land use, based on the physical composition. However, the accuracy of the land use map produced, was not at the level of practical application needed by urban planners. Therefore, further studies need to be conducted to improve the accuracy of land use maps produced using the V-I-S model.

Assessment of soil and groundwater impacts by treated urban wastewater reuse. A case study: Application in a golf course (Girona, Spain) [An article from: Science of the Total Environment, The]

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Assessment of soil and groundwater impacts by treated urban wastewater reuse. A case study: Application in a golf course (Girona, Spain) [An article from: Science of the Total Environment, The]
L. Candela , S. Fabregat , A. Josa , J. Suriol , and Vigue
Manufacturer: Elsevier
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital

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Water Supply & Land Use | Nature & Ecology | Science | Subjects | Books

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ASIN: B000PDT6KC

Book Description

Chemical properties of urban waste ash produced by open burning on the Jos Plateau: implications for agriculture [An article from: Science of the Total Environment, The]

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Chemical properties of urban waste ash produced by open burning on the Jos Plateau: implications for agriculture [An article from: Science of the Total Environment, The]
M.W. Pasquini , and M.J. Alexander
Manufacturer: Elsevier
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital

Soil Science | Agricultural Sciences | Science | Subjects | Books

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ASIN: B000RQYVMA

Book Description

This digital document is a journal article from Science of the Total Environment, The, published by Elsevier in 2004. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Description:
Urban centres produce most of the world's waste and between a third and a half goes uncollected. The answer to the problem of waste disposal lies partly in agriculture, as waste can be extremely nutrient-rich. In the last decade there has been a tremendous increase in the developing world in total city area under informal food production and there are many examples of waste recycling onto the urban or peri-urban plots. Farmers on the Jos Plateau, Nigeria, have developed a successful soil fertility management strategy based on the combination of inorganic fertilisers, manure and urban waste ash. This study sought to provide some preliminary data on urban waste ash produced by open burning and used in farming in a developing country. Ash samples were collected from different locations around Jos and tested for C, N, pH, P, Na, K, Ca, Mg, Fe, Mn, Zn, Cu, Ni, Cd and Pb. It was found that ash is an effective liming material (because of the high pH, and high Ca, Mg and K contents), and has the potential to contribute significant quantities of micro-nutrients such as Mn, Zn and Cu. Ash, however, is far from being a homogenous material and its variability means that its fertilising potential will vary between batches and that, even if mean and median levels are low, there is the risk of the formation of localised areas of soil with excessive heavy metal contents (this is particularly the case with Pb). Further research is required to determine the plant-availability of these elements in the ash and to assess the wider environmental and health implications of uncontrolled, open burning of waste as a means of producing ash for agricultural purposes.

Contamination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban soils in Beijing, China [An article from: Environment International]

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Contamination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban soils in Beijing, China [An article from: Environment International]
L. Tang , X.Y. Tang , Y.G. Zhu , M.H. Zheng , and Q. Miao
Manufacturer: Elsevier
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital

Elsevier | By Publisher | e-Docs | Formats | Books
ASIN: B000RR6CRQ

Book Description

This digital document is a journal article from Environment International, published by Elsevier in . The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Description:
Soil contamination with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is an increasing problem in many countries, including China. An extensive and systematic survey has been undertaken to evaluate the contamination with PAHs of urban soils in Beijing, China. Soil samples were collected from campuses of universities, schools and kindergartens, public squares, fallow land and roadsides, and were analyzed for 16 PAHs by GC-MS. There was a high variability in the total PAHs (@?PAHs) concentrations, ranging from less than 366 to 27,825 ng g^-^1. The highest @?PAHs concentrations were found at roadsides and industrial sites. Soil organic carbon (SOC) is one of the important factors that can influence the concentrations of PAHs in soils. It was found that concentrations of @?PAHs were significantly correlated with that of soil organic carbon. To trace the sources of PAHs, the ratios of phenanthrene to anthracene and fluoranthene to pyrene were used to identify pyrogenic and petrogenic sources, respectively. In most cases, PAHs in soils in urban areas of Beijing were pyrogenic. These sources included motor vehicle exhausts, industrial activities and coal burning. These data can be further used to assess the health risk associated with soils polluted with PAHs.

Fecal bacteria in the rivers of the Seine drainage network (France): Sources, fate and modelling [An article from: Science of the Total Environment, The]

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Fecal bacteria in the rivers of the Seine drainage network (France): Sources, fate and modelling [An article from: Science of the Total Environment, The]
P. Servais , T. Garcia-Armisen , I. George , and Billen
Manufacturer: Elsevier
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital

Soil Science | Agricultural Sciences | Science | Subjects | Books

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ASIN: B000PDU5DE

Book Description

This digital document is a journal article from Science of the Total Environment, The, published by Elsevier in 2007. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Description:
The Seine river watershed (France) is a deeply anthropogenically impacted area, due to the high population density, intense industrial activities and intensive agriculture. The water quality and ecological functioning of the different rivers of the Seine drainage network have been extensively studied during the last fifteen years within the framework of a large French multidisciplinary scientific program (PIREN Seine program). This paper presents a synthesis of the main data gained in the scope of this program concerning the microbiological water contamination of the rivers of the Seine drainage network. The more common indicator of fecal contamination (fecal coliforms) was mainly used; some complementary works used E. coli and intestinal enterococci as alternative fecal indicators. Point sources (outfall of wastewater treatment plants) and non point sources (surface runoff and soil leaching) of fecal pollution to the rivers of the watershed were quantified. Results showed that, at the scale of a large urbanised watershed as the Seine basin, the input of fecal micro-organisms by non-point sources is much lower than the inputs by point sources. However, the local impact of diffuse non-human sources (especially surface runoff of pastured fields) can be of major importance on the microbiological quality of small headwater rivers. Fecal contamination of the main rivers of the Seine watershed (Seine, Marne, Oise rivers) was studied showing high level of microbiological pollution when compared to European guidelines for bathing waters. The strong negative impact of treated wastewater effluents outfall on the microbiological quality of receiving rivers was observed in different areas of the watershed. Once released in rivers, culturable fecal bacteria disappeared relatively rapidly due to mortality (protozoan grazing, lysis) or loss of culturability induced by stress conditions (sunlight effect, nutrient concentration, temperature). Mortality rates of E. coli were studied in different types of rivers within the watershed showing, in summer conditions, no major difference in the mortality rates in small and large rivers. As a result of these studies, a module describing the dynamics of fecal bacteria has been developed and embedded within a hydro-ecological model describing the functioning of the rivers of the whole watershed (the SENEQUE model). Once validated, such a model can be used for testing predictive scenarios and thus can be a very useful tool for the management of microbiological water quality at the scale of the whole basin.

Field-scale modelling of carbon and nitrogen dynamics in soils amended with urban waste composts [An article from: Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment]

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Field-scale modelling of carbon and nitrogen dynamics in soils amended with urban waste composts [An article from: Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment]
B. Gabrielle , J. Da-Silveira , S. Houot , and Michelin
Manufacturer: Elsevier
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital

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ASIN: B000RR525O

Book Description

This digital document is a journal article from Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, published by Elsevier in . The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Description:
Composting has emerged as a valuable route for the disposal of urban waste, with the prospect of applying composts on arable fields as organic amendments. Proper management of urban waste composts (UWC) requires a capacity to predict their impacts on carbon and nitrogen dynamics in the field, an issue in which simulation models are expected to play a prominent role. Here, we used a deterministic soil-crop model to simulate C-N dynamics in an arable field amended with three types of UWC (green waste and sludge, biodegradable waste, and solid waste), and a reference amendment (farmyard manure). The model is a version of CERES in which the soil C-N module was substituted with the NCSOIL model, whose microbiological parameters were determined from either laboratory incubation data or biochemical fractionation in a previous paper. CERES was tested against data from a field trial set up in 1998 in the Paris area, and managed as a maize (Zea mays L.)-wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) rotation. Comparison of observed and simulated data over the first 4 years of the field trial showed that CERES predicted the soil moisture and inorganic N dynamics reasonably well, as well as the variations in soil organic C. In particular, the parameterization of UWC organic matter from biochemical fractions achieved a similar fit as the parameterization based on incubation data. Wheat yields were also correctly predicted, but a systematic under-estimation of maize yields pointed at an under-estimation of spring and summer mineralization of N by CERES. Simulated N fluxes showed that the organic amendments induced an additional leaching ranging from 1 to 8kgNha^-^1yr^-^1, which can be related to the initial mineral N content of the amendments. After 4 years, the composts had mineralized 3-8% of their initial organic N content, depending on their stability. Composts with slower N release had higher N availability for the crops. CERES could thus be used to aid in selecting the timing of compost application, in relation to its stability, based on both environmental and agronomical criteria.

Historical change of heavy metals in urban soils of Nanjing, China during the past 20 centuries [An article from: Environment International]

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Historical change of heavy metals in urban soils of Nanjing, China during the past 20 centuries [An article from: Environment International]
G.L. Zhang , F.G. Yang , Y.G. Zhao , W.J. Zhao , and Yang
Manufacturer: Elsevier
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital

Book Description

This digital document is a journal article from Environment International, published by Elsevier in . The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Description:
Two typical areas, including once commercial and residential quarters of Nanjing, China, were studied by investigating soil properties especially heavy metals of soils in various cultural layers formed in different Chinese Dynasties. The age of the soil profiles was dated by both archaeological and ^1^4C chronological methods. The results showed that urban soils in the old commercial/workshop quarter of Nanjing were generally contaminated by heavy metals Cu, Zn, Pb, but their concentration levels varied significantly among the cultural layers formed in different dynasties. The substantial increase of heavy metals appeared in three historical periods, i.e., South Dynasty (222-589 AD), the earlier Ming (1368-1644AD) and the late Qing (1644-1912AD) in one area. The tremendous input and storage of heavy metals in soils was explained by the primitive smelting and the strengthened metal processing activities, which might be due to the requirement of weapon making or other industries, in the changing social conditions of the corresponding periods. Soils in the once noble political, cultural centers did not show significant increase of heavy metals. The difference in the distribution pattern of heavy metals revealed the contrasting history of the site uses. The change of contaminant level in soils is believed to be a reflection of various human activities in the city during the past 20 centuries.

Book Description

A Dynamic Systems Approach to the Development of Cognition and Action presents a comprehensive and detailed theory of early human development based on the principles of dynamic systems theory. Beginning with their own research in motor, perceptual, and cognitive development, Thelen and Smith raise fundamental questions about prevailing assumptions in the field. They propose a new theory of the development of cognition and action, unifying recent advances in dynamic systems theory with current research in neuroscience and neural development. In particular, they show how by processes of exploration and selection, multimodal experiences form the bases for self-organizing perception-action categories.

Thelen and Smith offer a radical alternative to current cognitive theory, both in their emphasis on dynamic representation and in their focus on processes of change. Among the first attempt to apply complexity theory to psychology, they suggest reinterpretations of several classic issues in early cognitive development.

The book is divided into three sections. The first discusses the nature of developmental processes in general terms, the second covers dynamic principles in process and mechanism, and the third looks at how a dynamic theory can be applied to enduring puzzles of development.

Cognitive Psychology series

Customer Reviews:

Complexity Theory and Psychology.......2000-05-02

This book is among the first to apply complexity theory to developmental psychology, and is definitely a must read for anyone interested in either topic. When read in conjunction with Port and Van Gelder's Mind as Motion, Walter Freeman's How Brains Make Up Their Minds, and Alicia Juarrero's Dynamics in Action, one begins to see aborning the outline of a new framework for a naturalized philosophy of mind.

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