Elements of Forecasting (with InfoTrac 1-Semester, Economic Applications Online Product, Data Sets Printed Access Card)

Book Description

ELEMENTARY FORECASTING focuses on the core techniques of widest applicability. The author illustrates all methods with detailed real-world applications, many of them international in flavor, designed to mimic typical forecasting situations.

Customer Reviews:

Not Bad.......2007-01-04

The book starts with talking about forecasting deterministic trends, then seasonalities, later chapters 6,7,8 talk about forecasting cycles. Finally in the end chapters the author puts it all together and talks about multivariable forecasting models. The book is on an introductory level, so if you're looking for indepth discussion of these topics this is not for you. Anoter drawback is that this book does not integrate into its discussion of the topics any examples of code that would show how to forecast with any popular software package (Eviews or SAS).

Third edition is no better.......2004-01-15

I posted the unfavorable review of the second edition. I have recently had an opportunity to see the third edition, and find the same errors are still present.

an embarrassingly slapdash and sloppy book.......2002-09-28

There were a considerable number of errors in the first edition that I pointed out to the author shortly after its publication. The second edition seems to have corrected few if any of them. Let me cite two egregious examples.

In the chapter on ARMA models, the example analyzed is Canadian Employment data. One of the models that is fit is an MA(4) -- see pages 164-6. When I tried to reproduce these results using software other than EVIEWS, using the data disk in the 1st edition, I couldn't. I contacted EVIEWS and they discovered a programming error in the estimation routine. They released a patch to fix EVIEWS. However, the author never re-estimated his model, and the estimates in the second edition are the same as in the first. However, my copy of the 2nd edition has no data disk! Was that thought to be an adequate solution?!

Chapter 9 ("Putting it all together") is a capstone chapter that analyzes liquor sales data using the techniques introduced in earlier chapters. After several pages (pp. 207-19) a model is selected. On pages 220-2, the residuals are examined using the Box-Ljung statistic, and deemed acceptable. However, as a careful examination of table 9.6 makes clear, the p-values for the Box-Ljung statistic were computed as if the input data were a raw series. The model generating the residuals (p. 219) had 3 autoregressive terms! This changes the d.f. in the chi-square distribution of the statistic. If you make the appropriate correction using the data in table 9.6, and compute the p-values correctly, you will see that the model residuals apparently ARE NOT white noise. One reason is a calendar effect in liquor sales: months that contain more than a usual number of Fridays and Saturdays result in more liquor sales; ones with more Sundays result in lower liquor sales. However, the author doesn't discover this, but accepts his inappropriate model on the basis of faulty distribution theory.

Good, but poor examples.......1999-11-27

If the purpose of using this book is to get a brief idea of what certain concepts are then it is a good book. Unfortunately, many people using this book are going to be those who do not have much background with the concepts inside and they will be looking for clearer explanations of what the author is talking about. I think that is the book's weakness: the fact that many times I didn't feel that his definitions and explanations were complete enough.

Excellent introductory guide to forecasting !!!.......1999-01-26

The use of practical examples (using the Eviews software) and the availability of a data disk makes this a very relevant guide for practitioners. There is a good section on graphical analysis and modelling of cycles using AR and MA processes. The mathematics is kept simple and clear, intuitive explanations are given throughout. The treatment of unit roots, cointegration and other advanced materials is quite sketchy but I guess that is to be expected in an introductory text. With the level of clarity evident throughout this book, I certainty hope Diebold follows up with another book on more advanced forecasting techniques.

State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications

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Amazing treatement for the practitioner and the student
State-Space Models with Regime-Switching:Classical and Gibbs
A waste of time.
excellent book on regime switching

State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications
Chang-Jin Kim , and Charles R. Nelson
Manufacturer: The MIT Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods (Oxford Statistical Science Series)
Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter
State Space and Unobserved Component Models: Theory and Applications
Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance
New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis

ASIN: 0262112388

Book Description

Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data.

The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.

Customer Reviews:

Amazing treatement for the practitioner and the student.......2007-02-06

This book gives a step-by-step treatement of models with regime changes and time varying coefficients. If you are a student or a practitioner you will find this book very useful to start your applications. The first six chapters are very well developed, and the GAUSS codes provided by the authors let you realize how to do the job. These chapters will let you estimate a model using the classical approach. However, the next chapters that cover exactly the same topics using a bayesian approach are not that well developed. The examples and explanations are not clear, and the few examples do not help you generalize the techniques to your own models. The first six chapters, however, make this book worth 5 stars!

State-Space Models with Regime-Switching:Classical and Gibbs.......2003-12-31

This is basically the only book around on this subject, and they do have useful informations as well. I think explanation is concise enough to clearly understand. I found this book to be useful because of those. The only thing is some typos (which I think is inevitable for this kind of book) and program software on the web which is not very clearly written.

A waste of time........2002-01-29

This book is poorly written. It has numerous typos. The authors never even bothered to explain some of the math notations they used. Apparently, I believe some the examples were copied from other books without a clear explanation of the notations. You'll end up scratching your head on the notations and typos. I wasted a lot of time reading this book. They never mentioned some of shorting comings of using Gibbs Sampling, and ignore some of alternative methods that are far superior in many other respects.

excellent book on regime switching.......2001-03-28

This is really great book for understanding regime switching and state-space models.As far as I know this is the first book that includes both topics together.It is easy to understand and supporting applications at the end of the each chapter make things easier for the reader.Furthermore, it also tells about bayesian econometrics and gibbs-sampling approach.In short,it is a must buy book for a economics graduate student who is interested in nonlinear time series econometrics

Econometric Methods with Applications in Business and Economics

Average customer rating:

for economists

Econometric Methods with Applications in Business and Economics
Christiaan Heij , Paul de Boer , Philip Hans Franses , Teun Kloek , and Herman K. van Dijk
Manufacturer: Oxford University Press, USA
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Advanced Macroeconomics
A Guide to Modern Econometrics
Introductory Econometrics for Finance
Statistical Inference
Econometric Analysis (5th Edition)

ASIN: 0199268010

Book Description

Nowadays applied work in business and economics requires a solid understanding of econometric methods to support decision-making. Combining a solid exposition of econometric methods with an application-oriented approach, this rigorous textbook provides students with a working understanding and hands-on experience of current econometrics. Taking a 'learning by doing' approach, it covers basic econometric methods (statistics, simple and multiple regression, nonlinear regression, maximum likelihood, and generalized method of moments), and addresses the creative process of model building with due attention to diagnostic testing and model improvement. Its last part is devoted to two major application areas: the econometrics of choice data (logit and probit, multinomial and ordered choice, truncated and censored data, and duration data) and the econometrics of time series data (univariate time series, trends, volatility, vector autoregressions, and a brief discussion of SUR models, panel data, and simultaneous equations). DT Real-world text examples and practical exercise questions stimulate active learning and show how econometrics can solve practical questions in modern business and economic management. DT Focuses on the core of econometrics, regression, and covers two major advanced topics, choice data with applications in marketing and micro-economics, and time series data with applications in finance and macro-economics. DT Learning-support features include concise, manageable sections of text, frequent cross-references to related and background material, summaries, computational schemes, keyword lists, suggested further reading, exercise sets, and online data sets and solutions. DT Derivations and theory exercises are clearly marked for students in advanced courses. This textbook is perfect for advanced undergraduate students, new graduate students, and applied researchers in econometrics, business, and economics, and for researchers in other fields that draw on modern applied econometrics.

Customer Reviews:

for economists.......2007-10-02

good printing quality, but personally I don't like the style of editing. Nevertheless the material is also good for advanced scholars

Conditional Moment Estimation of Nonlinear Equation Systems: With an Application to an Oligopoly Model of Cooperative R&D (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems)

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Conditional Moment Estimation of Nonlinear Equation Systems: With an Application to an Oligopoly Model of Cooperative R&D (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems)
Joachim Inkmann
Manufacturer: Springer
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 3540412077

Book Description

Generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of nonlinear systems has two important advantages over conventional maximum likelihood (ML) estimation: GMM estimation usually requires less restrictive distributional assumptions and remains computationally attractive when ML estimation becomes burdensome or even impossible. This book presents an in-depth treatment of the conditional moment approach to GMM estimation of models frequently encountered in applied microeconometrics. It covers both large sample and small sample properties of conditional moment estimators and provides an application to empirical industrial organization. With its comprehensive and up-to-date coverage of the subject which includes topics like bootstrapping and empirical likelihood techniques, the book addresses scientists, graduate students and professionals in applied econometrics.

Introduction to the Theory and Application of Data Envelopment Analysis - A Foundation Text with Integrated Software

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Introduction to the Theory and Application of Data Envelopment Analysis - A Foundation Text with Integrated Software
Emmanuel Thanassoulis
Manufacturer: Springer
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Binding: Hardcover

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Accessories:

Quantitative Models for Performance Evaluation and Benchmarking: Data Envelopment Analysis with Spreadsheets and DEA Excel Solver (International Series ... in Operations Research & Management Science)
Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models (Studies in Operational Regional Science)
New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis

ASIN: 0792374290

Book Description

The book aims to introduce the reader to DEA in the most accessible manner possible. It is specifically aimed at those who have had no prior exposure to DEA and wish to learn its essentials, how it works, its key uses, and the mechanics of using it. The latter will include using DEA software. Students on degree or training courses will find the book especially helpful. The same is true of practitioners engaging in comparative efficiency assessments and performance management within their organisation. Examples are used throughout the book to help the reader consolidate the concepts covered.

Book Description

This international handbook identifies and explains 29 timeless management principles - general truths that can be applied to all types of work situations. It is based on knowledge accumulated by numerous experts over many years of research and consulting. The chapters are readable, succinct and practical. They cover a wide range of topics including selection, turnover, job satisfaction, work motivation, incentives, leadership, team effectiveness, decision making, creativity, stress and technology.This handbook is the first ever attempt to accumulate the wisdom of decades of research and consulting and to turn this accumulated knowledge into easy to understand and practically useful management principles. The handbook provides students and managers with an essential resource that is neither theory divorced from practice nor practice divorced from theory but rather the application of theory to the real world of organizations.This book is a must for every manager's desk and a great tool for teaching.This updated paperback edition of Ed Locke's acclaimed Handbook includes a keynote essay he recently published in the AMLE Journal (2002). In it he sets out his principles-based approach to teaching management. For students and teachers of organizational behavior and management this is a unique guide.

Customer Reviews:

The Art of Management Presented as a Science.......2003-01-11

"The Blackwell Handbook of Organizational Behavior" is a collection of articles by academics edited and ogranized by Dr. Edwin Locke, who is both a leading expert in the field of motivation and organizational behavior.

The book presents the principles of management not as a set of memorized lists but as general truths about management induced from reality. With the wealth of examples, the book provides *practical* guidance on how to make a business decision. Take for example the three basic principles underlying the section of workers:

(1) Select on Intelligence
(2) Select on Conscientiousness and Emotional Stability
(3) Structure Interviews to Hire the Best People

In each principle, the authors provide the background/research on how they induced this principle, they provide sub-principles by breaking down the principle further (when necessary), including exceptions (thus delimiting the context), and then they present clarifying and practical advice on implementing the principles in practice, along with real world examples of how the principles are successfully used.

Bear in mind that the book is not exactly easy reading as it is written by academics; however, neither is it entirely academic either, making it readable. I think the principle involved in writing the book is to be 'academic' in terms of accuracy, but not so as to confuse the reader through Ivory tower jargon.

This is the book that Hank Rearden--a fictional character in Ayn Rand's novel Atlas Shrugged--had on his desk; if you are a manager you should have it on yours. --Republished by permission from a Review on [other site]

The Art of Management Presented as a Science.......2003-01-11

(1) Select on Intelligence
(2) Select on Conscientiousness and Emotional Stability
(3) Structure Interviews to Hire the Best People

This is the book that Hank Rearden--a fictional character in Ayn Rand's novel Atlas Shrugged--had on his desk; if you are a manager you should have it on yours...

Putting the "I" back in "Team".......2003-01-01

While most OB texts today promote the collectivist social agendas of authors who've never been gainfully employed outside of academia, "The Blackwell Handbook of Organizational Behavior" is a refreshing and potentially powerful tool for managers and management students who want to study and implement sound business practices based on proven principals. Kudos to Edwin Locke, et. al. for, what should be, a constant reference tool for every manager who wants to reach optimum organizational performance while promoting respect for individual employees. Unfortunately, since this book avoids all the fluffy science, social engineering, and racist collectivist theories being pumped by the general OB industry, it will likely be dismissed or condemned by today's trendy OB psycho-social engineers. Then again, that makes it better for those of us who want to get ahead using sound business practices that respect and advance each individual within the organization. - Brent Duncan, Practitioner Professor, UOP.

Book Description

An excellent reference book for plant breeders and entomologists, Global Plant Genetic Resources for Insect-Resistant Crops combines germplasm preservation with use in insect-resistant crop development and basic research. The contributions of the authors represent the efforts, cooperation, and understanding of world leaders in the conservation and use of global plant genetic resources for sustainable agricultural production. Concepts addressed include dependency of modern agriculture on chemical pest control and applications of biotechnology in use of natural plant genes for insect-resistant crops.

Book Description

Catching Ourselves in the Act uses situated robotics, ethology, and developmental psychology to erect a new framework for explaining human behavior. Rejecting the cognitive science orthodoxy that formal task-descriptions and their implementation are fundamental to an explanation of mind, Horst Hendriks-Jansen argues for an alternative model based on the notion of interactive emergence.

Situated activity and interactive emergence are concepts that derive from the new discipline of autonomous agent research. Hendriks-Jansen puts these notions on a firm philosophical basis and uses them to anchor a "genetic" or "historical" explanation of mental phenomena in species-typical activity patterns that have been selected by a cultural environment of artifacts, language, and intentional scaffolding by adults. Situated robotics, allied with techniques and principles from ethology, allows the testing of hypotheses framed in terms of natural kinds that can be grounded through the theory of natural selection. This approach negotiates the "nature versus nurture" dispute in a radically new way.

Catching Ourselves in the Act provides a thorough overview of autonomous agent research in America and Europe, focusing in particular on work by such eminent researchers as Rodney Brooks, Pattie Maes, Maja Mataric, and Rolf Pfeifer. It reassesses the basic principles of artificial life and explores the repercussions of autonomous agent research for human psychology and the philosophy of mind, as well as its affinities with the "contextual revolution" in sociology and anthropology.

Customer Reviews:

Brings latest arguments in the lit together in one place.......1999-11-10

Horst Hendriks-Jansen demonstrates a clear understanding of all the modern arguments about the nature of intelligence and how they relate to each other. He has a clear and logical writing style that explains and debunks many important theories. Although many of these theories and criticisisms have appeared in other places, this book brings them all together and relates them. He describes his theory of interactive emergence and the notion of language as scaffolding for learning. This weaves together many contemporary ideas into a consistient whole. A great deal of the book is devoted to debunking existing theories - I would have liked to see a more detailed exploration of interactive emergence and how language as scaffolding might work. Definitely worth a read, especially if you are interested in clear arguments against symbol-systems hypothesis etc.

Catching Ourselves in the Act: Situated Activity, Interactive Emergence, Evolution, and Human Thought

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Catching Ourselves in the Act: Situated Activity, Interactive Emergence, Evolution, and Human Thought
Horst Hendriks-Jansen
Manufacturer: The MIT Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000OQ8HU0

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