Book Description
A groundbreaking look at complexity theory and its implications in the world of finance
Complexity theory tells us that processes with a large number of seemingly independent agents-such as free markets-can spontaneously organize themselves into a coherent system. In this fascinating book, Edgar Peters brings together scientific theory, the artistic process, and economics to show how the randomness and uncertainty of complexity theory can be applied to financial markets. Written in an engaging and accessible style, this is a thoughtful, conceptual look at the way free markets are, by their nature, continually evolving complex systems. Expanding on previous explorations of chaos theory, Peters draws on real-life examples ranging from the Asian crisis to America's love of conspiracy to show that complexity and randomness are necessary for the free markets to operate in a competitive manner.
Download Description
A groundbreaking look at complexity theory and its implications in the world of finance
Complexity theory tells us that processes with a large number of seemingly independent agents-such as free markets-can spontaneously organize themselves into a coherent system. In this fascinating book, Edgar Peters brings together scientific theory, the artistic process, and economics to show how the randomness and uncertainty of complexity theory can be applied to financial markets. Written in an engaging and accessible style, this is a thoughtful, conceptual look at the way free markets are, by their nature, continually evolving complex systems. Expanding on previous explorations of chaos theory, Peters draws on real-life examples ranging from the Asian crisis to America's love of conspiracy to show that complexity and randomness are necessary for the free markets to operate in a competitive manner.
Customer Reviews:
i loved this chaos theory intoduction.......2007-04-05
I'm not a math gueek, evolutionist, or statistician. What I wanted was someone to expalain, in as simple terms as possible, what "complexity" is in terms of systems analysis - be that social, economic or otherwise. Kudos to Peters for delivering just that. I read the negative reviews written before my own, considered them, and then I bought the book anyway.
Frankly, I'm glad Peters "dumbed down" this topic for me. That's what I wanted. Not knowing much about the subject, I was still able to sense where some errors of omission were being made. And there are a few. I wish he would have finished his thought on the Monte Hall problem, for example. Don't buy this book if you are thinking it's full of exciting mathematical equations or advanced theory. It isn't. It's just an introduction to complex/chaotic systems written for the average Joe/Jane.
For all the flap over "missing Keynes' contribution" or "misrepresenting Darwin," he may very well do that. I did not buy this book expecting Peters to be a Keynes scholar or a Darwinian evolutionist. If he has read 0 Keynes and 0 Darwin, I think we can still consider him an expert on complex and chaotic systems. Certainly, Keynes and Darwin were not. I expected that Peters might know a little bit about chaos theory and complexity as it relates to the realm of economics. And that he does. So, again, kudos to Mr. Peters for dumbing down this complex topic (pun intended) enough to create a starting point for me.
Peters has overlooked Keynes's contributions in this area.......2004-11-22
Peters does an excellent job in clearly differenciating between the concepts of complexity, ignorance,risk,uncertainty,vagueness,and ambiguity.He shows how each concept has an important separate ,yet interrelated ,clearcut role to play in financial decision making.Unfortunately,Peters overlooks the fact that John Maynard Keynes had already provided an operational approach for such a decision making approach in his A Treatise on Probability(TP)in 1921.The role of conflicting and ambiguous evidence in decision making in general was discussed by Keynes in his rain-barometer-dark clouds example in chapter 3 of the TP.Keynes's point in discussing this particular problem was to show that it would be difficult to measure and quantify this particular dimension of a decision problem.The implicit danger is that no account will be taken of it if a strictly quantitative approach to decision making is taken.The importance of vagueness was discussed by Keynes in chapter 1,p.5,chapter 2,p.17 and in chapter 22,p.259.Complexity is discussed within the context of Keynes's discussion of induction and analogy.The ability to reason inductively starts to break down if the number of important independent factors(Keynes's principle of limited(finite)independent variety)grows too large and/or the interactive effects start to exhibit nonlinear relationships instead of proportionate,linear relationships.The clearcut differences between ignorance,uncertainty and risk in general decision making were discussed in chapters 6(the introduction)and chapter 26(the conclusion).Keynes defined an index to measure what he called the weight of the evidence,w, upon which probability estimates would be based.w is a measure of the completeness and the reliability of the relevant,potential,available evidence and information that a decision maker can obtain( or be aware of its existence).w is defined on the unit interval [0,1],where 0<=w<=1.Keynes's discussion of the Ellsberg Paradox takes place in chapter 6 of the TP forty years before Ellsberg published his 1961 paper.Keynes's w is practically the same as Ellsberg's rho measure of ambiguity.In the General Theory,Keynes defines uncertainty to be an inverse function of the weight of the evidence,where u(uncertainty)is a function of w.Thus,u=f(w).Ignorance(w=0),uncertainty(0<w<1)and risk(w=1)are all defined by Keynes relative to his w index.Risk can then be either linear(proportionate) or nonlinear(nonproportional).Keynes wraps all of this up into his conventional coefficient of weight and risk,c. c is a decision rule that incorporates nonlinearities in decision making.The goal of the decision maker is to maximize cA,where A is some outcome and c equals (p/1+q)(2w/1+w).This rule generalizes the expected value rule and the expected utility rule.Keynes doesn't make the common error of conflating risk with diminishing marginal utility.Finally,Keynes is the founder of the interval estimate approach to probability.Each probability has an upper and a lower bound .Keynesian expected values are thus also intervals.Keynes's development of an interval estimate approach to the estimation of probabilities in chapters 15 and 17 of the TP HAS BEEN OVERLOOKED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF TWO ERROR FILLED BOOK REVIEWS WRITTEN BY FRANK RAMSEY IN 1922 AND 1926,respectively.Ramsey completrly misinterpreted Keynes's definition of the words"nonnumerical" and"nonmeasurable".Keynes uses them to mean that two numerals ,not one, are needed to specify probabilities in general.Ramsey mistakenly assumed that Keynes was arguing that numbers could not be used in general to quantify the probability relation.This reviewer concludes that Peters should have based his overall approach upon Keynes's work and not upon an Austrian approach to economic theory which is impossible to operationalize due to their bias against any kind of quantification.Ramsey's criticisms are correct if applied to the Austrian position on the use of quantitative methods in decision theory.They are off target when applied to Keynes.A revised version of Peter's book would be even more convincing if he incorporated a chapter on Keynes's nearlty 80 year old approach.
Disappointing and superficial content, questionable analysis.......1999-07-25
I found the discussions of complexity and risk as applied to financial crisis to be superficial and somewhat platitudinous. There are no in depth discussions of the factors involved in any recent financial crisis. There are various discussions of risk, complexity, evolution and Keynesian vs. Austrian schools of economics but no real depth or new perspectives on any of these issues are presented. The discussion of the pros and cons of socialism(collectivism) vs. capitalism(free market) societies was not much more substantive than an article you might see in the Business Section of USA Today. A graph showing(arguing) that the US is higher in on the scale of economic "uncertainty" than China or Russia is highly suspect. One of the defining features and advantages of the US capitalistic system is the relative sanctity of private property and enforceable contracts which provide a foundation of "certainty" upon which vibrant commerce can be enabled. Such institutions are completely lacking in communist states which is one of the major reasons for their collapse. I have to question the scholarship behind the presentation of such a comparison. This book is not worth your time or money.
The dumbing down of market chaos (0 stars).......1999-07-22
Peters' earlier work, "Fractal Market Analysis", is an excellent introduction to chaos theory applied to financial markets. It's truly one of the most useful finance books I've ever read.
I was therefore shocked and extremely disappointed to find "Patterns in the Dark" to be a collection of vague, banal observations about risk and uncertainty. On the few occasions when Peters attempts to make actual statements of fact, he's wrong as often as he's right (see below). It's almost inconceivable that this book was written by the same person. I can only conclude that Mr. Peters deliberately dumbed down this book in an attempt to reach a broader audience. Unfortunately, he went way too far. That a firm like Wiley would publish a book like this is disturbing.
If you don't mind 200 large-print pages of simplistic generalities, factual errors, anecdotes devoid of insight, and cartoons (no joke), this book is for you. But if you'd like to actually learn something about the nonlinear nature of markets, read Peters' excellent "Fractal Market Analysis".
Finally, for those interested in some details of the factual errors I mentioned above, I'll provide two glaring examples.
First, the author dredges up that old chestnut of probability, the "Monte Hall Dilemma". This is an often-quoted probability question that, while trivial once understood, is counter-intuitive and hence widely misunderstood. Peters gives the correct solution, but he states that the question "has caused a great deal of debate in statistical circles" and that there is "not universal agreement" on the answer, as if it were some great unsolved problem of mathematics. This is absolute hogwash. While it has caused much confusion among the general public and the press, to someone with a basic knowledge of probability, or to anyone willing to make the effort to really think about it, it's a very simple problem.
Second, and much more disturbing, is the author's assertion that "Darwin was essentially wrong", that "the basic premise of Darwinian evolution has deep flaws". This conclusion is based on his profound misunderstanding of Darwin's theory. Peters' argument is essentially as follows: the number of possible combinations of genes in even the most simple organism is astronomical, so to "search through these combinations to find the best one" would take "longer than the age of the known universe". Of course, as any high school biology student should know, Darwinian natural selection has absolutely nothing to do with the absurd notion of exhaustively "trying out" every possible organism that could conceivably exist. If the author is interested in understanding what Darwin actually theorized, and why nearly all biologists now think he was essentially right, I would refer him to Darwin's own "The Origin of Species", and to the excellent books by Richard Dawkins.
Peters sheds light on complexity theory in finance!.......1999-05-06
Ever the standard bearer for the rational approach in the complacent and often hide-bound practices of most people to the world of financial-economics, Peters makes a compelling and ultimately convincing case for the paradigm of complexity to supplant that of equilibrium.
Lest the rank-and-file practitioner forget, the most humble methods one has for interpreting any information in the market have their conceptual grounding from the 1930's application of equilibrium in physics to economics. These humble methods include the Portfolio Theory of the 1970s and Graham & Dodd of the 1930s. What most practitioners fail to appreciate is that once that conceptual foundation is changed from equilibrium to complexity, every metric and every conclusion drawn from those metrics change also.
The changes Peters highlights, while based on solid science, challenge much of the convetional wisdom. It is the millenium and age of enlightenment. Investors should treat themselves to some of the same and read this book.
Christopher MAY - author Nonlinear Pricing
Book Description
This digital document is a journal article from Decision Support Systems, published by Elsevier in 2005. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
Description:
We develop a framework for trading in compound securities: financial instruments that pay off contingent on the outcomes of arbitrary statements in propositional logic. Buying or selling securities-which can be thought of as betting on or against a particular future outcome-allows agents both to hedge risk and to profit (in expectation) on subjective predictions. A compound securities market allows agents to place bets on arbitrary Boolean combinations of events, enabling them to more closely achieve their optimal risk exposure, and enabling the market as a whole to more closely achieve the social optimum. The tradeoff for allowing such expressivity is in the complexity of the agents' and auctioneer's optimization problems. We develop and motivate the concept of a compound securities market, presenting the framework through a series of formal definitions and examples. We then analyze in detail the auctioneer's matching problem. We show that, with n events, the matching problem is worst-case intractable: specifically, the problem is co-NP-complete in the divisible case and @S"2^p-complete in the indivisible case. We show that the latter hardness result holds even under severe language restrictions on bids. With log n events, the problem is tractable (polynomial) in the divisible case and worst-case intractable (NP-complete) in the indivisible case. We briefly discuss matching algorithms and tractable special cases.
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Geschäftsprozessorientiertes Wissensmanagement: Effektive Wissensnutzung bei der Planung und Umsetzung von Geschäftsprozessen (Xpert.press)
Manufacturer: Springer
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
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ASIN: 3540429700 |
Book Description
Erfolgreiches Wissensmanagement setzt voraus, dass es in die tägliche Arbeit integriert ist, wie sie durch die Geschäftsprozesse eines Unternehmens vorgegeben wird. Wissensmanagement muss deshalb als integraler Bestandteil von Geschäftsprozessen und deren Gestaltung betrachtet werden. Wissen ist für ein Unternehmen relevant, wenn es die Geschäftsprozesse verbessert. In diesem Buch werden praxisrelevante Techniken und Vorgehensweisen beschrieben, mit deren Hilfe relevantes Wissen identifiziert, gesichert und gezielt zur Bearbeitung von Prozessaktivitäten bereitgestellt werden kann.
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Think Like a Lawyer: How to Get What You Want by Using Advocacy Skills
Robert J. Dudley
Manufacturer: Burnham, Inc.
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
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ASIN: 0882295713 |
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How Lawyers Think
Clarence Morris
Manufacturer: Fred B. Rothman & Company
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
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ASIN: 0837724759 |
Book Description
This comprehensive guide addresses one of the most common problems for gardeners. Shade Gardening has over 250 color photographs of the 350 best trees, shrubs, annuals, perennials, bulbs, ground covers, vines, ferns, and grasses for shaded areas. Articles cover the basics of growing plants in the shade as well as such subjects as city gardens, flowers, foliage plants, pests and diseases, and lawns.
Customer Reviews:
Gardening.......2005-08-25
Provides lots of interesting gardening information if you are planting only trees and shrubs. Book does not detail anything for vegetable gardeners. Title should be changed to include the word "Forestry" rather than the broad term 'gardening".
Very helpful handbook.......2005-02-07
This is a great reference for those gardening in shade. It is organized in a logical format and can be easily used. The photos are nice and the information helpful as plants are considered for a shade garden. While it may not be adequate for those gardening in the deep south, it is very well suited to zones 5,6, and 7.
A must have.......2002-06-22
This wonderful little book (thick, but only 4.27" wide) is an absolute necessity for anyone who wishes to do some gardening in a shady area. In fact, this book is really three books rolled into one. The first section looks at shade and shade gardening, it is straightforward and highly informative. The second section is entitled The Color Plates, and gives a long list of shade-loving plants, including a very nice color picture, and a highly informative description. The third section goes hand-in-hand with the second, and gives more in-depth information.
This book is really great, a must have for those of us who wish to do some gardening in a shady area. I highly recommend this book to all gardeners!
Great idea book with pictures of shade lovers.......2001-03-22
The Taylor's Guides are very reliable sources for gardening information and great pictures, and the Shade Gardening Guide is one of the best. Shade gardening is difficult for many reasons. There are not that many very showy flowers for seasons other than Spring, and there are many types of shade. The descriptions are very specific and helpful: light shade, dappled shade, "the more shade, the less moisture is needed," and so on. The soil and shade descriptions for each plant are excellent and detailed.
Although the plants are listed alphabetically for the cultural requirements, the pictures are listed by groups: trees, shrubs, perennials, annuals, summer bulbs, ground covers, vines, grasses, and ferns. I would recommend that people using the book for plant selection read the "Encyclopedia of Plants" part as well as the brief but good descriptions with the color pictures.
Keep in mind too that the flowering times are primarily for New England (zone 5). Furthur South you may get earlier and more flowers. For example, Ceratostigma is listed as an Autumn bloomer, while in PA, it blooms from July through October. So you get more than the book suggests. Not bad. Anyone with shade should experiment with the plants in this book. As a gardening professional, I see so many great and underused plants listed and described in this book.
Not a good resource for Southern gardeners.......2000-09-09
Having recently purchased a condo in Houston with a north-facing porch, I eagerly awaited delivery of this book. However, I was quickly disappointed. This book should be titled "Shade Gardening in the North," since virtually all of the plants listed are for Zones 5 and lower...not much help for my Zone 9 garden. It did contain a couple of pages of information for shade gardening in the South (which they consider to be North Carolina!), but I was really looking for specific information on the types of shade plants I could plant here. This would have been a great book if I lived in Ohio, but not so good for us Texans.
Average customer rating:
- Excellent guide to a successful Shade Garden
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Shade Gardens (Step-By-Step)
Patricia A. Taylor
Manufacturer: Better Homes & Gardens Books
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
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ASIN: 0696202107 |
Customer Reviews:
Excellent guide to a successful Shade Garden.......2000-07-01
This book is an excellent resource to have when establishing a shade garden. It covers preparation of your gardening area through design, color, and shapes and texture. This guide covers several examples where one can use a shade garden. Some examples would be in the city, passage in a wooded area, or established to attract birds. Managing your new garden is illustarted for more healthy plants. One can start growing their own plants allowing them to add a touch of their favorite plants to different locations of their landscape with this simple guide to growing and propagating plants. Once you have started a beautiful garden this guide will help to aid you in maintaining what you have worked to establish. This Step-By-Step to Shade Gardening also contains an Encyclopedia which covers all the information you need on the plants to use. The encyclopedia covers common and scientific names, description, flower colors, time of season it will likely bloom, height you can expect a healthy plant to grow, what zones it grows best in, and the conditions best to establish for your plants to thrive. This is an excellent and well illustarted guide to creating a shade garden which your neighbors will admire and you will love to spend some time.
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Shade trees for the home (Agriculture handbook no. 425)
Curtis May
Manufacturer: Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; for sale by the Supt. of Docs., U.S. Govt. Print. Off
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding
Production & Operations
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ASIN: B0006CCTXI |
Book Description
This digital document is an article from Countryside & Small Stock Journal, published by Countryside Publications Ltd. on May 1, 1993. The length of the article is 1218 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
From the supplier: A house can be cooled with very little energy with the use of some vegetation and a ceiling fan. One homesteader grew vines along the west side of her home to block the afternoon sun. Shade trees around the house and a properly ventilated ceiling fan can help too.
Citation Details
Title: Beat the heat with passive cooling. (includes related article)
Author: Sandra Bellinger
Publication:
Countryside & Small Stock Journal (Magazine/Journal)
Date: May 1, 1993
Publisher: Countryside Publications Ltd.
Volume: v77
Issue: n3
Page: p58(2)
Distributed by Thomson Gale
Book Description
This digital document is an article from Countryside & Small Stock Journal, published by Countryside Publications Ltd. on May 1, 1993. The length of the article is 775 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
From the supplier: The ginkgo biloba is an excellent shade tree. It is rare and only grows naturally in southeast China, but can grow almost anywhere in North American where the soil is moist and well drained. Growing tips are included.
Citation Details
Title: The ginkgo biloba: plant a "minor breed" tree!
Author: Gail Billingsley
Publication:
Countryside & Small Stock Journal (Magazine/Journal)
Date: May 1, 1993
Publisher: Countryside Publications Ltd.
Volume: v77
Issue: n3
Page: p61(1)
Distributed by Thomson Gale
Book Description
This digital document is an article from Countryside & Small Stock Journal, published by Countryside Publications Ltd. on May 1, 1995. The length of the article is 805 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
From the supplier: Two hardy trees that grow quickly and make beautiful additions to landscape are the catalpa and the Kentucky coffee tree. The Kentucky coffee tree is very disease and drought resistant. The catalpa provides excellent shade with huge dinner-plate sized leaves and are resistant to pest damage.
Citation Details
Title: My favorite shade trees.
Author: Ed Hart
Publication:
Countryside & Small Stock Journal (Magazine/Journal)
Date: May 1, 1995
Publisher: Countryside Publications Ltd.
Volume: v79
Issue: n3
Page: p72(2)
Distributed by Thomson Gale
Book Description
This digital document is an article from Wood & Wood Products, published by Vance Publishing Corp. on October 1, 1991. The length of the article is 687 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
Citation Details
Title: Pella pulls the shades over poor quality. (Pella Rolscreen's quality work) (Company Profile)
Author: Karen Malamud Koenig
Publication:
Wood & Wood Products (Magazine/Journal)
Date: October 1, 1991
Publisher: Vance Publishing Corp.
Volume: v96
Issue: n11
Page: p71(4)
Article Type: Company Profile
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EES-2
William E Barrick
Manufacturer: Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding
Energy Efficient Design
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ASIN: B00073CHQ0 |
Books:
- Computational Finance 1999
- Computer Accounting with QuickBooks 2003
- Control Self Assessment: For Risk Management and Other Practical Applications
- Cookin' the Book$: Say Pasta la Vista to Corporate Accounting Tricks and Fraud
- Corporate Secretary's Answer Book
- Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Methods and Applications (1-Off)
- Credit Risk Modeling: Design and Application
- Critical Concerns in Transfer Pricing and Practice
- Currency Derivatives: Pricing Theory, Exotic Options, and Hedging Applications (Wiley Series in Financial Engineering)
- Deadly Art Puzzle: Accounting for Murder
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