Vision's Immanence: Faulkner, Film, and the Popular Imagination

Book Description

William Faulkner occupied a unique position as a modern writer. Although famous for his modernist novels and their notorious difficulty, he also wrote extensively for the "culture industry," and the works he produced for it -- including short stories, adaptations, and screenplays -- bore many of the hallmarks of consumer art. His experiences as a Hollywood screenwriter influenced him in a number of ways, many of them negative, while the films turned out by the "dream factories" in which he labored sporadically inspired both his interest and his contempt. Faulkner also disparaged the popular magazines -- though he frequently sold short stories to them.

To what extent was Faulkner's deeply ambivalent relationship to -- and involvement with -- American popular culture reflected in his modernist or "art" fiction? Peter Lurie finds convincing evidence that Faulkner was keenly aware of commercial culture and adapted its formulae, strategies, and in particular, its visual techniques into the language of his novels of the 1930s. Lurie contends that Faulkner's modernism can be best understood in light of his reaction to the popular culture of his day. Using Theodor Adorno's theory about modern cultural production as a framework, Lurie's close readings of Sanctuary, Light in August, Absalom! Absalom!, and If I Forget Thee, Jerusalem uncover the cultural history that surrounded and influenced the development of Faulkner's art.

Lurie is particularly interested in the influence of cinema on Faulkner's fiction and especially the visual strategies he both deployed and critiqued. These include the suggestion of cinematic viewing on the part of readers and of characters in each of the novels; the collective and individual acts of voyeurism in Sanctuary and Light in August; the exposing in Absalom! Absalom! and Light in Augustof stereotypical and cinematic patterns of thought about history and race; and the evocation of popular forms like melodrama and the movie screen in If I Forget Thee, Jerusalem. Offering innovative readings of these canonical works, this study sheds new light on Faulkner's uniquely American modernism.

Customer Reviews:

Groooovy baby!.......2000-08-06

Isaac Asimov has such a delightful wit that even his explanations of archaic terms are fun to read. When combined with W.S. Gilbert's hilarious librettos, it makes one entertaining read. Actually, it makes more than one entertaining read. i have read it several times and still enjoy it.

A delight for Gilbert & Sullivan fans.......2000-04-25

Writer Martin Gardner once told Isaac Asimov that if he really wanted to have fun, he should find a book he liked very much and annotate it. "Asimov's Annotated Gilbert & Sullivan" is one of the results of that suggestion. This enormous volume contains the words to all the G&S operas, plus extensive notes explaining allusions and words that might be unfamiliar to today's listener. Asimov assumes minimal knowledge on the part of the reader, so this book is useful and entertaining not only for the veteran G&S aficionado but also for the neophyte.

Operetta: A Theatrical History (Routledge Studies in Musical Genres)

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Many Nights at Many Operettas
A brilliant book

Operetta: A Theatrical History (Routledge Studies in Musical Genres)
Richar Traubner
Manufacturer: Routledge
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0415966418

Book Description

Operetta: A Theatrical History is considered the classic history of this important musical theater form. Traubner's book, first published in 1983, is still recognized as the key history of the people and productions that made operetta a worldwide phenomenon. Beginning in mid-19th century Europe, the book covers all of the key developments in the form, including the landmark works by Strauss and his followers, Gilbert & Sullivan, Franz Lehar, Rudolf Friml, Victor Herbert, and many more. The book is written in lively prose, perfectly capturing the champagne-and-ballroom atmosphere of the greatest works in the genre. It will appeal to all fans of musical theater history.

Customer Reviews:

Many Nights at Many Operettas.......2006-10-04

This newly revised ( from 1984 ) book will be a treat to those who are not familiar with operettas but are interested to learn about them. Traubner is absolute accurate in his comments about each one (as I learned to my cost once in Munich. I saw "Tzar und Zimmerman" but had I paid attention to the book, I would not have.) His eye and ear for scores and librettos is spot on though, as he concedes, many of these have not been seen in perfomance in decades.
The book is arranged to take the reader on an entertaining tour of the genre and never forgets this is being written for the viewer and not the musicologist. But this later group will not feel slighted. Along with historical data, original casts, performances etc. are comments on the musical construction of each one and its' relationship to the time and audience in which it played.
The reader may find themself wishing some of the pieces might be revived, they sound interesting, tuneful and with careful performance might do well in repetoire. However, the majority of operettas are now period pieces, fascinating in Mr. Traubner's text but probably stultifying on stage.
Well written, amusing in it's recollections of nights in the theatre past, even if the topic is not your favorite, it's a good read as it traces the sociology of taste and how it varies.
As a reference source this is an invaluable book. As we get further from the time in which these pieces were written, material about them, indeed the pieces themselves (witness Gilbert and Sullivan's "Thespis") simply become non-existent. They will always exist in Traubner's OPERETTA; A THEATRICAL HISTORY. We should be grateful.

A brilliant book.......2004-12-11

Richard Traubner's "Operetta: A Theatrical History" is probably the best theatre history book I have encountered. It covers a huge topic in an orderly, clear manner by dividing the subject chronologically and geographically. As a result, a reader can follow it from start to finish and learn a great deal about changing fashions in entertainment and music. But the book is an extraordinarily useful reference work as well: it has a superb index and treats even lesser-known figures of the world of operetta fairly and thoroughly. Moreover, it is generously (and beautifully) illustrated.

Traubner's musical taste is first-rate, too, and his engaging writing style brings to life some of the long-forgotten gems of this once-wildly popular entertainment. There are thorough treatments of impresarios, singers, composers, and lyricists. Traubner also keeps an eye on the bigger picture by locating operetta's roots in 19th-century poltical satire and following its progress through the more romantic "silver" period of Lehar and Kalman to the modern Broadway musical. It also is the only English language text I know of that supplies a history of the Spanish zarzuela, so it is a necessary companion to the delightful recordings by Pilar Lorengar, Montserrat Caballe, and Placido Domingo of zarzuela hits. This is a landmark text, and any theatre, opera, or musical comedy fans should reward themselves by securing a copy.

(I encountered Traubner's text in its original--1984--edition and was unaware that he had produced a revised version in 2003. Needless to say, I will purchase that edition, too.)

The Gilbert and Sullivan Lexicon: In Which Is Gilded the Philosophic Pill : Featuring New Illustrations and the Complete Libretto for the Zoo

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The Gilbert and Sullivan Lexicon: In Which Is Gilded the Philosophic Pill : Featuring New Illustrations and the Complete Libretto for the Zoo
Harry Benford
Manufacturer: Sarah Jennings Pr
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0931781086

Zarzuela: Spanish Operetta, American Stage (Music in American Life)

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Simply Exquisite

Zarzuela: Spanish Operetta, American Stage (Music in American Life)
Janet L. Sturman
Manufacturer: University of Illinois Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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The Zarzuela Companion

ASIN: 0252025962

Customer Reviews:

Simply Exquisite.......2002-06-15

If you don't know what Zarzuella is or even if you do you will know plenty after reading this book. It will tell you all you need to know. I can't wait until Dr. Sturman does her follow up!
Buy this book Enjoy it and show it to your friends!

Gilbert and Sullivan: The Creative Conflict

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Gilbert and Sullivan: The Creative Conflict
David Eden
Manufacturer: Fairleigh Dickinson University Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0838632823

The Complete Gilbert and Sullivan Opera Guide

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The Complete Gilbert and Sullivan Opera Guide
Alan Jefferson
Manufacturer: Facts on File
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0871968576

All Time Favorite Operetta Hits: Piano Vocal Folio

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All Time Favorite Operetta Hits: Piano Vocal Folio

Manufacturer: Alfred Publishing Company
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 1576236579

Book Description

The music of Gilbert & Sullivan, Sigmund Romberg and Victor Herbert, the chief composers of the operetta art form, are featured within this folio. Selections include: Ah! Sweet Mystery of Life * Deep In My Heart * Indian Summer * Italian Street Song * A Kiss in the Dark * March of the Toys * Naughty Marietta and more.

American Operetta: From H.M.S. Pinafore to Sweeney Todd

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American Operetta: From H.M.S. Pinafore to Sweeney Todd
Gerald Martin Bordman
Manufacturer: Replica Books
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0735102805

Book Description

"Provocative and artfully argued"--The Los Angeles Times. Tracing the early history of the operetta on the American stage, this lively book examines origins of the musical theater in America. Bordman examines the public response to the mid-nineteenth century importations, showing how Americans then attempted to create their own operettas. Full of details about the producers and stars of the nineteenth-century entertainment world, this book will inform and entertain.

Aspekte der Offenbachiade: Untersuchungen zu den Libretti der grossen Operetten Offenbachs (Bonner romanistische Arbeiten)

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Aspekte der Offenbachiade: Untersuchungen zu den Libretti der grossen Operetten Offenbachs (Bonner romanistische Arbeiten)
Tamina Groepper
Manufacturer: P. Lang
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Perfect Paperback

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Behind the clouds,: A fantastic operetta in three acts

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Behind the clouds,: A fantastic operetta in three acts
Reginald Redman
Manufacturer: Birchard
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding

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Important General Strategic Ideas

GREAT FOR WOODPUSHERS!!!!!!!

Adequate, but (like all Pandolfini books) there are better books in the same category

Less pretentious version of Reassess Your Chess

Magnificent Basic Chess Instruction

Weapons of Chess: An Omnibus of Chess Strategies (Fireside Chess Library)
Bruce Pandolfini
Manufacturer: Fireside
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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Pandolfini's Endgame Course: Basic Endgame Concepts Explained by America's Leading Chess Teacher (Fireside Chess Library)

Chess Openings: Traps And Zaps (Fireside Chess Library)

Attacking Chess: Aggressive Strategies and Inside Moves from the U.S. Junior Chess Champion (Fireside Chess Library)

More Chess Openings: Traps and Zaps 2 (Fireside Chess Library)

Beginning Chess: Over 300 Elementary Problems for Players New to the Game

ASIN: 0671659723

Book Description

With Weapons of Chess, National Master and highly acclaimed teacher Bruce Pandolfini brings us the most accessible and easy-to-use chess strategy book ever.

Written for beginning and intermediate players, Weapons of Chess is the first encyclopedia of chess strategies that doesn't rely on the usual baffling chess notation. There are no symbolic chess moves, no charts or sequences in chess notation: every move is explained in words.

Arranged alphabetically for easy use and based mainly on pawn formation, the incredibly detailed and thorough entries in this book talk a player through dozens of common strategic dilemmas, such as "doubled pawn," "bishops vs. knights," and "hanging pawn pair." Diagrams illustrate the terms, first showing the basic position and then strategically moving to more complicated versions of it. Players will learn how to formulate plans once they have reached a middlegame, enabling them to make wiser strategic decisions after the first few moves of the game.

Designed for use as a ready reference during actual practice games, and usable without a chess board, Weapons of Chess is a unique and invaluable resource for any developing chess player.

Customer Reviews:

Important General Strategic Ideas.......2006-11-26

Wow! This book came as a surprize from Pandolfini - it is the best book he has written and it is good! If you are rated in the 900 to 1400 range then you will be in tune with "Weapons of Chess".

The book contains a nice touch on the "use of Pawns", isolated "d" Pawns, and Pawn structures and use. Then, the use of Bishops such as the bad Bishop, Bishop pair, Bishops of opposite colors, fianchetto, etc... The use of Rooks such as doubled rook effectivelness. After this book you might consider getting "How to Reassess your Chess" by Silman as the next step, and along with this book at this level getting "Unbeatable Chess Lessons for Juniors" for nice games with important strategic concepts.

Bravo for Pandolfini on this one!

GREAT FOR WOODPUSHERS!!!!!!!.......2006-09-09

In my opinion weapons of Chess is Pandolfini's best book he has written on chess. If you are new to chess and you know how the pieces move and the rules, but you dont know what to do next after your opponent moves. This book is for you. Pandolfini mainly focuses on pawn structure such as backward pawns, isolated pawns, pawn centers, pawn chains and mostly the isolated d pawn. The isolated queen pawn is a subject you wont want to pass by. Since sometime in the future you may encounter this position wether it be defending against or playing with an isolated d pawn. Weapons of Chess of chess also touches on other strategic principles such as the bad bishop, bishops of opposite colors, fianchetto, doubled rooks, and the two bishops are a few examples. Pandolfini organizes the book in alpabetical order so if you want to go back to a subject it will be easily found. Each section is in essay format, very well explained, and there are alot of clear diagrams so you wont get confused. The only problem with the book is the more advanced reader will be annoyed by the fact that there is no notation. Wich tends to make the book a little wordy example (instead of saying Re5 the author will say the rook at e2 moves to e5. For this reason I gave the book a four star rating instead of five. Negativeity aside Weapons of Chess is a great steping stone to more complex chess books on strategy. After reading this copy I purchased The Most Instructive Games of Chess Ever Played by Irving Chernov. I was able to understand some of the motives behind the moves and the notes Chernov wrote with ease. To the begginer I recomend a simple book on tactics to go along with the book. Overall a great book.

Adequate, but (like all Pandolfini books) there are better books in the same category.......2006-07-07

This was one of the first chess books I recieved when I was a younger and weaker player a few years ago. My rating was probably in the high 900's and I was about 8 or 9 years old at the time. While this does have some decent discussion on pawn structure, thats all it discusses. It has very little on strategy other wise. Pandolfini makes a HUGE mistake by not using algebraic notation.

The text becomes wordy and difficult to follow. For example, what could've been (notice there is commentary in every move, because Pandolfini thinks that every move must have a half paragraph explanation)
"In diagram 108, if white decides to continue development with 1. Bd3, it is he who could end up with the isolated d pawn. Black takes the pawn with 1...dxc4. White follows with 2. Bxc4, and Black responds with 2... cxd5 and white restores material equality with 3.exd4.

Instead, Pandolfini writes "Going back to diagrapm 108, if white elects to continue development by playing his f1 bishop to d3, it is he who could end up with the isolated d pawn. Black takes the pawn at c4 with d5 pawn. White naturally recaptures at c4 with the d3 bishop, black snips of the d4 pawn with the c5 pawn, and white restores material equality by recapturing d4 with the e3 pawn."

See what I mean? Instead of using algebraic notation, Pandolfini "fattens" this book by not using any notation and by giving pointless commentary on any move.

I recommend Winning Chess Strategies by Yasser Seirawan. It may be a bit advanced for Weapons of Chess's intended audience, but they will still learn far more from that book.

Less pretentious version of Reassess Your Chess.......2006-06-11

This book teaches basically all the exact same things that are in Reassess Your Chess, only Reassess Your Chess takes these basically pretty simple concepts and tries to make them seem much more profound, great selling tactic by Mr. Sillman. This book teaches you all the same positional concepts in an easier more accessible manner. These are all concepts that I basically learned by trial and error by playing a 1,000 games or so when I didn't think I needed a book to learn how to play, this book would of been a nice short cut! All of Padolfini's books are for relative beginners so if you are relatively advanced stay away from his books obviously, but for newbies this could be the fashizle!

Some other things I judge books by besides actual chess content is paper and print quality and price, nice white paper with easy to read print and diagrams, paper is a bit thin and you can see the diagrams from other pages through the paper though. At $4 ($7.50 plus shipping) it is a great deal!

Magnificent Basic Chess Instruction.......2006-04-18

There are one zillion books on chess. This is one of those. It is written in a style that is easy to follow. It uses the new algebraic grid method for identifying positions on the board. That immediately makes it better than all those that use the old method. The narrative descriptions are well written and hold one's interest. No book on chess is exhaustive, he points out, but this book does cover strategy well for the adult beginner at least. If you read and understand it you will be well ahead of a beginner. I recommend it if you are interested in chess at all. The diagams are well done and frequent. The analysis of various moves is easy to follow and insightful. It would stand alone if it is the only chess book you read and it would be well worth having in you chess library if you have several chess books. Bruce Pandolfini does a much better than average job of offering the elements and the generalizations of good chess strategy. Well organized. Adequate Glossary and index.

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Fun Internet Sites are Fun But Can Be Inferior to Superb Books Such as this...
An exceptional compilation
Fun Internet sites don't always make great books
Chess lore galore

A Chess Omnibus
Edward Winter
Manufacturer: Russell Enterprises
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 1888690178

Book Description

An exceptionally wide-ranging anthology featuring hundreds of rare chess games, puzzles, photographs, biographies, exposes, bons mots and much more. This is a gem of peasurable, delightful reading.

Customer Reviews:

Fun Internet Sites are Fun But Can Be Inferior to Superb Books Such as this..........2006-03-12

This is an incredible book. It's not the kind of book you read cover to cover in one sitting, nor is it the kind of book you "study" like an opening book. It is fascinating, well-written, meticulously-researced chess information, history, and entertainment, and it is well worth the money you would pay for it. If all books were this thoroughly self-vetted, we would have more trees in the forest and less junk on the market.

While he is right on target about the meticulousness of research gong into this book, I disagree with Mr. Johnson's conclusion about the "vignette" style of book. It is the kind of book you pick up, read a little of, then put down for later. I have two or three of Edward Winter's books and they never get old. I get old, but not Mr. Winter's books... :) They are all fascinating to read, and I heartily recommend this book.

An exceptional compilation .......2005-07-15

Mr. Winter's outstanding omnibus of chesslore is well worth the money for anyone interested in chess. His writing style is engaging, his research of facts and ephemera exhaustive, and his attention to the most insignificant detail is more than apparent. This is indeed a well-executed omnibus of all things chess. Anyone familiar with his equally excellent book Kings, Commoners and Knaves or his online reviews at ChessCafe will certainly not be disappointed. However, for those who have not cut their teeth on Mr. Winter's writing be forewarned: His reviews and criticisms as contained within this volume can be biting to say the least. In fact he will probably leave some readers wondering whether the almost gleeful maliciousness he exhibits in his frequent negative assessments is perhaps worse than the chess culprits he is critiquing. That notwithstanding, this is an excellent compilation which will not disappoint the curious and combative alike.

Fun Internet sites don't always make great books.......2004-10-17

Edward Winter is familiar to on-line students of chess history through his long-running column at chesscafe.com. This book continues the tradition of chess scholarship he has shown there and in his similar book "Kings, Commoners and Knaves," but this time the effect, sad to say, is beginning to wear old. The problem is not that the material is ill-researched -- quite the contrary, it's as meticulously turned out as usual for Winter -- or uninteresting -- that's in the eye of the beholder. In all simplicity, it's that snippets and sound bites may be fine for a web site, but they don't make for a very good book. The free-ranging, vignette-oriented style characteristic of Winter's on-line column does not translate well into book form, creating a work that is disjointed to the point of being hard to read.

Chess lore galore.......2004-04-19

This is the third book of Edward Winter's that explores various aspects of chess lore in great detail (following on from Chess Explorations, and Kings, Commoners and Knaves). Winter has a derserved reputation as an excellent and exacting author, with very high standards in seeking chess truth and setting the record straight. His direct criticism and refusal to accept mediocrity, has often put him offside against some of the more frequent and sloppy chess authors. The book contents are presented in seven sections or themes (Positions, Games, Miscellaneous, Biography, Gaffes, Mysteries, and Quotes) and all are interesting, well researched, and unique in the sense of not being found anywhere else (except for some articles from his earlier Chess Notes series). Unlike the two previous publications, this book does not include Winter's book review section. Although missed, there is plenty of other excellent content that substitutes. The book is very hard to put down once started reading, and stimulates a continued interest in chess lore. See Winter's column on the excellent Chess Cafe site for an idea of the book's contents. Winter's knowledge of and keen interest in Capablanca continues throughout the book, and there are many excellent photos that bring the personalities to life. The book is excellently bound and presented and one of the best chess publications of 2003. It is unreservedly recommended for anyone with a keen interest in chess.

Book Description

Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs

This book shows why such “predictable surprises” put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before disaster strikes.

There is a universal fear factor surrounding this subject: that society and the workplace are filled with disasters in the making that we could prevent if we only knew what to look for. This book plays on that fear and offers a positive, proactive resolution to it.

Customer Reviews:

Enlightening.......2007-08-27

The book jumps around but makes clear and valid points. A great eye opener! I would recommend this to students, leaders, informed citizens...just about anybody. I'm definitely getting more copies for friends and loved ones.

On Target - Bullseye - Should have seen it coming.......2005-10-07

Anyone who has worked for some sort of organization, government agency, business, university or whatever, will empathise with "Predictable Surprises" by Bazerman and Watkins. This book focuses on the early and late warning signs, the cover-ups, the denials, and the eventual consequences of failing to take action to avert disaster. I've been in far too many situations where I observed that the peple "in charge" (really??) were blindsided by their own limited vision to the realities of what was happening within their organizations.

There are two "Predictable Surprises" that weren't included. First, Hurricane Katrina and the aftermath in New Orleans. Anyone visiting that city and talking with one's professional compatriates could have seen coming what unfolded before our eyes. The warning signs and studies were out there and ignored. That's why those who had a reasonable level of education left town and paid attention to the evacuation notices.

The other predictable surprise that was missed was the sex abuse scandal in the Roman Catholic Church. I'm Protestant but know a lot of fine Roman Catholic people. I heard things as long ago as fifty years and knew then that this situation was going to explode in the public domain. "Predictable Surprises" provides the principals that explain why this particular surprise was kept under the radar so long.

An outstanding book that should be read by everyone working in the corporate world, a government agency, a university, the military, or a non-profit organization. Your life may depend on knowing what's in this book.

Predictably bad.......2005-06-14

A major shortcoming of Bazerman and Watkins' book is the failure to provide adequate evidence to support their arguments about what they call "predictable surprises", which they define as "an event or series of events that take an individual or group by surprise, despite prior awareness of all of the information necessary to anticipate the events and their consequences." Bazerman and Watkins build their case substantially on just two examples: aviation security failures leading to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 and auditor independence concerns leading to the collapse of Enron and Arthur Anderson. Several other examples are discussed in less depth throughout the text, however many of these are not actually predictable surprises under the definition provided. For example, global warming is discussed a number of times; however global warming has been in public discussion since the 1930s, and today a substantial majority of people believe not only the concept of global warming but that current warming is man-made. By 2050, this subject will have been under study for 120 years and popular consensus will have been achieved for 50-60 years. This is certainly predictable, but hardly a surprise. The United States' looming crisis in entitlement spending also falls in this category.

Flaws exist in other anecdotal support as well. For example, Bazerman and Watkins cite aviation security failures as an occasion when overly discounting the future lead to a predictable surprise. Quick calculation based on figures provided in the book show that, using equal discount rates for the expected future cost of security and the future cost of disaster, even with a disaster probability as high as 10% for any given year, the airlines would be ahead on a cost basis. The total destruction of both World Trade Center towers and the massive ensuing death toll was not reasonably foreseeable by the airline industry; based on the typical passenger plan carrying 78 people, this was the equivalent of an absurd 41 simultaneous aircraft disasters! Given the cost of implementation and the low probability of such a large disaster, even at a full cost of nearly $50 billion, the airlines' decision to oppose security measures on a cost basis was reasonable. The full scope of this surprise was unlikely enough that it should not be termed "predictable."

Despite some good analysis of reasons predictable surprises occur and ways to avoid them, this book is critically weakened by its lack of evidence. Bazerman and Watkins try to make it stand largely on just the aviation security and auditor independence failures; however these are insufficient evidence for their broad analysis and conclusions, particularly given the weakness of those arguments provided. This book would be substantially more persuasive with more anecdotal support.

Predictably OK.......2005-05-11

In a world ruled by probability, all predictions eventually come true (no matter how impossible.) That said, ignoring the obvious can be disastrous, but the authors methods for prioritizing risk were disappointing.

Updating the March of Folly.......2005-02-23

The authors have found a memorable phrase to describe a depressingly common phenomenon - the occurrence of a disaster or failure that has been widely and often publicly predicted. The term `predictable surprise' will undoubtedly enter the managerial and political language.

They have provided a valuable analysis of why these predictable disasters occur and what can be done to prevent them (while recognizing that there are also such things as `unpredictable surprises' which can not be avoided through these processes).

The book is invaluable for the clear way in which it brings the elements together and for the vividness and immediacy of the examples chosen to illustrate the points. The result is a book that is very readable as well as being immediately useful, even if many of the points have also been made elsewhere by other authors. The book provides a template against which organizations can assess their defences against `predictable surprises', and I suspect that every organization will find gaps in its armour when it measures itself against the recommendations in the book.

The authors also use the book to mount a stinging attack on the failures of the American political system (and by extension those of other countries) and the need for fundamental reform. Their attack on the activities of the special interest groups and their direct responsibility for some of the worst disasters that the US has suffered is particularly pointed. One can only hope that the criticisms will be listened to and acted upon, and that politicians as well as business people will read and note them.

Throughout the book, the systemic, interconnected nature of the processes that lead to predictable surprises is very clear, but the authors do not, in my opinion, highlight the fact as strongly as they should. They do point out that depletion of international fisheries is a classic case of 'the tragedy of the commons', one of several archetypal forms of systems relationship, but virtually every example that the authors cite could well be illustrated with simple systems diagrams based on one or other of the classic 'systems archetypes'. Systemic issues require systemic solutions and the leverage for systemic change may be located well beyond the area of control of the immediate actors - another fact that shows up clearly in the course of the authors' examples.

It is probably no coincidence that I was strongly reminded of Barbara Tuchman's The March of Folly as I read the book. The perspective and coverage is different, but the themes of willful ignorance, willful inaction and willful pursuit of perceived short-term self interest as fundamental drivers of future disasters are common to both. If Tuchman were still alive, I would have confidently expected an analysis of Iraq to follow her masterful analysis of the Vietnam war, the American War of Independence and the drivers of the Reformation. In its own way, Predictable Surprises provides a contemporary update of the ways in which we continue the march of folly.

How to predict surprises: future shocks might be avoided if we can find and use the proper diagnostics and tools.(Predictable Surprises: The Disasters ... Review): An article from: The Futurist

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How to predict surprises: future shocks might be avoided if we can find and use the proper diagnostics and tools.(Predictable Surprises: The Disasters ... Review): An article from: The Futurist
Clifton Coles
Manufacturer: Thomson Gale
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital

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This digital document is an article from The Futurist, published by World Future Society on March 1, 2005. The length of the article is 1256 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Citation Details
Title: How to predict surprises: future shocks might be avoided if we can find and use the proper diagnostics and tools.(Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming and How to Prevent Them)(Book Review)
Author: Clifton Coles
Publication: The Futurist (Magazine/Journal)
Date: March 1, 2005
Publisher: World Future Society
Volume: 39 Issue: 2 Page: 62(2)

Article Type: Book Review

Distributed by Thomson Gale

Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming and How to Prevent Them.(Book review): An article from: Parameters

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Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming and How to Prevent Them.(Book review): An article from: Parameters
Mark J. Eshelman
Manufacturer: Thomson Gale
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital

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This digital document is an article from Parameters, published by Thomson Gale on June 22, 2006. The length of the article is 841 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Citation Details
Title: Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming and How to Prevent Them.(Book review)
Author: Mark J. Eshelman
Publication: Parameters (Magazine/Journal)
Date: June 22, 2006
Publisher: Thomson Gale
Volume: 36 Issue: 2 Page: 133(3)

Article Type: Book review

Distributed by Thomson Gale

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