Out of Gas: The End of the Age Of Oil

Book Description

Science tells us that an oil crisis is inevitable. Why and when? And what will our future look like without our favorite fuel?

Our rate of oil discovery has reached its peak and will never be exceeded; rather, it is certain to decline—perhaps rapidly—forever forward. Meanwhile, over the past century, we have developed lifestyles firmly rooted in the promise of an endless, cheap supply. In this book, David Goodstein, professor of physics at Caltech, explains the underlying scientific principles of the inevitable fossil fuel shortage we face. He outlines the drastic effects a fossil fuel shortage will bring down on us. And he shows that there is an important silver lining to the need to switch to other sources of energy, for when we have burned up all the available oil, the earth's climate will have moved toward a truly life-threatening state.

With its easy-to-grasp explanations of the science behind every aspect of our most urgent environmental policy decisions, Out of Gas is a handbook for the future of civilization.

Customer Reviews:

Engines and Oil.......2007-07-11

Exactly what I had hoped to read in the first 1/4 of the book and the last 1/4 of the book. A good discussion of the status of our oil supply and the prognosis for the future based on current and probable future demand.

My only problem with the book, and this seems to not have been mentioned in previous reviews, is that the author devotes about half of the book to the science of thermodynamics and the design of engines. This is a good basic review on about the junior high level of physical science but it is not the reason that I had picked up the book.

The author is a scientist and has written books on thermodynamics which may be the reason he feels it is important to devote about half the book to this subject. This does give you a good understanding of why it is so difficult to come up with alternatives to the powerful gasoline engine. I would have appreciated more information on the status of oil reserves in Mexico, Iran, Russia etc. in addition to what he had discussed on Saudi Arabia. These countries figure importantly in the future and are not covered in depth in this book.

In genereal this is a good book but I felt the need to read more on the subject after completing it.

out of gas.......2006-11-10

This book asks the question "How long can the worldwide oil economy last"?
The answer: "Not very long". The age of oil is fast coming to a close. What will replace it? Well, immediately reduce consumption of remaining carbon based fuels and other products or learn to reuse them. Many tons per capita in carbon based waste in landfills must be lowered NOW!

Long term solutions must include moves to renewables and sustainable uses. The great "nuclear furnace in the sky" can provide over 50% of the earth's energy needs with today's technology without much change in North American lifestyles. To accomodate a population of 6+ billion at such levels would require 3 or 4 more planets like the earth. We ain't got 'em. So, what is one alternative to this growing probem? - get rid of a huge portion of the current population! One way or the other, the planet will fix itself and restore balance. Simple... if we don't do something soon, the planet WILL. Our choice?

Succinct, focused, readable.......2006-09-11

For those of you who are just getting interested in the subject, David Goodstein's Out of Gas is the book you want to read first. I have read several books on the impending energy crisis, including:

Deffeyes, Kenneth S. Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak (2005)
Heinberg, Richard. The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies (2nd Ed., 2005)
Huber, Peter W. and Mark P. Mills. The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy (2005)
Leeb, Stephen and Donna Leeb. The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself--and Profit--from the Coming Energy Crisis (2005)
Simmons, Matthew R. Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy (2005)

and I can say that Professor Goodstein's modest, short and very much to the point book is as good as, if not better than, any of those five. He introduces the subject in a clear and no nonsense way and includes a lot of background information essential to understanding how energy works and why we are about to face a crisis. For readers who are expert on the physics and technology of heat engines and entropy, this book will be a little too basic in part. But even for such experts, Goodstein is essential reading because not only does he understand the science of the energy crisis, he understands the politics. Especially edifying is the material in the Postscript. Let me reference a few ideas:

OPEC (a cartel, as Goodstein explains, patterned after the Texas Railroad Commission which was the cartel that controlled oil production in the US before our supply peaked) likes to maintain prices within a range, "partly in order not to discourage demand for oil, but also to prevent investment in alternative fuels." This we know, of course. But Goodstein adds, "The implied threat is, if you invest money to develop a competitor to oil, we will flood the market with cheap oil and wipe out your investment." (pp. 126-127)

This explains in part why we have been so slow to develop alternative sources. Investors are afraid. However, as Goodstein explains, if OPEC no longer has "excess pumping capacity" to flood the market, theirs becomes an empty threat. Notice another point here: not only are OPEC countries tempted to overstate capacity so that by OPEC rules they are allowed to pump more oil, they are induced to lie about their reserves to scare potential investors away from alternative energy sources. In fact the entire oil industry itself "has a very strong incentive to deny any looming shortage of oil." In other words, to overstate their reserves. Another reason they overstate their reserves "is to keep down the price of oil properties they would like to acquire." (p. 127)

Goodstein also explains why "reserves to production" (R/P) numbers have stayed about the same for many decades and why many experts say we still have forty years of oil left, same as we have had for most of the twentieth century. Quite simply "proven" reserves are reported as "whatever fits the current needs" of the company. (p. 128) It used to be the case that under-reporting was good since it kept the price of oil from plummeting. Now the real danger is to acknowledge that a company doesn't have much oil left. This will cause their stock price to plunge, which is what happened to the Royal Dutch Shell Group "when it was forced by outside auditors to reduce its claims of proven reserves..." (p. 129)

Goodstein's take on the various alternatives to oil, including coal, shale oil, nuclear energy, renewables, etc. is very much in concert with the opinions of other experts. We will be using more coal, dirty as it is, and more nuclear energy, and natural gas. These are the three main alternatives. Not long after we run out of oil we will run out of natural gas and then coal and then even nuclear power plants will grow cold for lack of uranium, which if used to supply energy at the current rate of consumption will be depleted in five to twenty-five years. (p. 106)

Goodstein explores wind and solar and makes it clear that in the long run--if we and civilization are going to make it to the long run--we will have to develop the technology to exploit these renewable sources. This will require a huge investment. We will need the political leadership and will to make the kind of commitment that President Kennedy made in putting a man on the moon. Goodstein believes that solving the energy problem will require the same sort of formidable and creative technology as did the space program. He adds that "Unfortunately, our present national and international leadership is reluctant even to acknowledge that there is a problem." (p. 123)

It is essential that we make the commitment to develop alternatives fuels and we make that commitment NOW because (1) we will need the oil we have left to make the thousands of petrochemical products we will continue to use; (2) we need to free ourselves from dependence on the oil producing countries; and (3) there is an outside danger that the continued burning of fossils fuels will trigger a runaway greenhouse catastrophe that could lead to sterilizing the earth as has happened on Venus. Note well this horrific downside--far worse than any "nuclear winter"--and note too we could go past the point of no return without even realizing it, and be left with no way to stop the meltdown.

Bottom line: "The challenge is enormous but the stakes are even larger. If future generations are to thrive, we who have consumed Earth's legacy of cheap oil must now provide for a world without it." (p. 131)

Best introduction to fuel (oil) depletion I have read..........2006-07-31

This book is a short read, so the review should be short, too. This is the best book on fuel depletion on the market, in my opinion: short, accurate, factual, non-polarizing, objective, useful, and scientifically correct. Reviewers who quibble over small stuff are missing the point. There is an annotated bibliography for those who want more. You can't go wrong with this one.

This book played fast with the facts.......2006-06-26

After reading this book, I sold my copy as a used book on Amazon --- and I almost never do this. I have read 5 books about the end of oil prior to reading OUT OF GAS, and I felt that the author played with the facts to make his point. Clearly, the author wanted the make the crisis that we are facing seem less urgent and dire than the other books on the topic. While I am not a scientist who has studied this topic first hand, I have studied books and other literature on this topic, and feel that other sources provide better information. Specifically, Hubbard's Peak is not as clearly explained here as in other books.

If you are looking for an excellent (if a bit gloomy) book on PEAK OIL, I can recommend THE PARTY'S OVER.

Time to panic.(Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil)(The Hype about Hydrogen )(Book Review): An article from: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

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Time to panic.(Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil)(The Hype about Hydrogen )(Book Review): An article from: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Albert L. Huebner
Manufacturer: Educational Foundation for Nuclear Science, Inc.
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital

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This digital document is an article from Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, published by Educational Foundation for Nuclear Science, Inc. on July 1, 2004. The length of the article is 1769 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Citation Details
Title: Time to panic.(Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil)(The Hype about Hydrogen )(Book Review)
Author: Albert L. Huebner
Publication: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Refereed)
Date: July 1, 2004
Publisher: Educational Foundation for Nuclear Science, Inc.
Volume: 60 Issue: 4 Page: 65(3)

Article Type: Book Review

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Linking the personal and the political, Anna Clark depicts the making of the working class in Britain as a "struggle for the breeches." The late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries witnessed significant changes in notions of masculinity and femininity, the sexual division of labor, and sexual mores, changes that were intimately intertwined with class politics. By integrating gender into the analysis of class formation, Clark transforms the traditional narrative of working-class history.
Going beyond the sterile debate about whether economics or language determines class consciousness, Clark integrates working people's experience with an analysis of radical rhetoric. Focusing on Lancashire, Glasgow, and London, she contrasts the experience of artisans and textile workers, demonstrating how each created distinctively gendered communities and political strategies.
Workers faced a "sexual crisis," Clark claims, as men and women competed for jobs and struggled over love and power in the family. While some radicals espoused respectability, others might be homophobes, wife-beaters, and tyrants at home; a radical's love of liberty could be coupled with lust for the life of a libertine. Clark shows that in trying to create a working class these radicals closed off the movement to women, instead adopting a conservative rhetoric of domesticity and narrowing their notion of the working class.

Customer Reviews:

What defined gender relations in the British Working Class: Economics or Politics?.......2007-02-19

Building upon E.P. Thompson's definition of the "Working Class" in Britain, Anna Clark has developed a definitive study of the role that gender played in the development of this class during the era of the Industrial Revolution. Her primary argument is that gender played a "profound" role in the development of the Working Class (p. 264), which is a significant enhancement to Thompson's work. To determine whether or not gender did help to define the British Working Class, she evaluated social forces such as marital relationships, sexual morality, and labor. She has further branched out to include an assessment of political radicalization and Chartism in an effort to fully define the effect of gender on the formation of the British Working Class during the Industrial Revolution.

The authors' evaluation of marital relationships and sexual morality showed a challenging environment often permeated with husbands violently beating their wives because of their "nagging". Popular literature, such as the tale of "The Bold Cobbler" (p. 71) shows that people widely accepted the concept of male domination in this particular "class" of society, thus demonstrating the importance of gender within the family structure, and, because of the occupation of "cobbler", the link to the working class. Sexual morality differed greatly between the working class and the middle class, but the economics of the working class mandated this difference; almost to the point of promiscuity in some working class women. Clark explains this point well when she evaluates the "cock-and-hen" clubs on p. 58. Sexuality was the ticket to continued subsistence for some of these women.

As the title of the book suggests, the author devotes significant attention to the concept of the struggle within the family and society for the economic right to "wear the breeches". Clark explains that artisans and textile workers developed different strategies to address the influx of women into the work force, but both were facing the loss of male "pride" by allowing women to take their higher paying jobs and earn economic mastery within the household (p.119, p. 122). With the invocation of temperance Chartism, however, the plights of women that had long endured beatings administered by their husbands led to a political solution (p. 224). This focus on politics further defined the working class, but seems to have made them more akin to the middle class, when politics was a standard fare within daily life.

In my opinion, the author has demonstrated very well that it was an economic battle between men and women within the working class. She has also done a very good job of defining how the working class was significantly different from the middle class during the I.R. in Britain.

Struggle for the breeches: gender and the making of the British working class.: An article from: Labour/Le Travail

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Struggle for the breeches: gender and the making of the British working class.: An article from: Labour/Le Travail

Manufacturer: Canadian Committee on Labour History
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital
ASIN: B00097V9T0
Release Date: 2005-07-28

Book Description

This digital document is an article from Labour/Le Travail, published by Canadian Committee on Labour History on September 22, 1997. The length of the article is 1061 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Citation Details
Title: Struggle for the breeches: gender and the making of the British working class.
Publication: Labour/Le Travail (Refereed)
Date: September 22, 1997
Publisher: Canadian Committee on Labour History
Issue: 40 Page: 308-10

Article Type: Book Review

Distributed by Thomson Gale

Book Description

Dieses Übungsbuch ist als Ergänzung zu dem Lehrbuch "Volkswirtschaftslehre 1" konzipiert und soll dem Studierenden die Möglichkeit geben, den dort behandelten Lehrstoff zu vertiefen und anzuwenden. Es gliedert sich, dem Lehrbuch folgend, in die drei Teile "Grundlagen", "Mikroökonomik" und "Makroökonomik", zu denen jeweils eine Reihe von Multiple-Choice-Aufgaben gestellt sind. Die Lösungen zu allen drei Teilen sind am Ende des Buches gesammelt.

Aufgaben und Lösungen in der Volkswirtschaftslehre: Arbeitsbuch zu Engelkamp/Sell (Springer-Lehrbuch)

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Aufgaben und Lösungen in der Volkswirtschaftslehre: Arbeitsbuch zu Engelkamp/Sell (Springer-Lehrbuch)
Friedrich L. Sell , and Silvio Kermer
Manufacturer: Springer
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 3540708669

Book Description

Das Buch wendet sich in erster Linie an StudentInnen der wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Disziplinen, aber auch an Interessenten anderer Fachrichtungen. Dabei orientiert sich dieses Arbeitsbuch an der Struktur der Einführung in die Volkswirtschaftslehre von Paul Engelkamp und Friedrich L. Sell und deckt dessen gesamten Inhalt ab. Es ist deshalb als eine, gerade für die Klausurvorbereitung, sehr wertvolle Ergänzung anzusehen. Alle Aufgaben in diesem Buch waren Bestandteil von mündlichen oder schriftlichen Prüfungen. Die Lösungsskizzen und die Diskussion der Ergebnisse zeigen nochmals die volkswirtschaftlichen Methoden und auch die möglichen Fehlerquellen bei der Beantwortung der Fragen auf.

Außenwirtschaft: Ein Lern- und Übungsbuch (Physica-Lehrbuch)

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Außenwirtschaft: Ein Lern- und Übungsbuch (Physica-Lehrbuch)
Matthias Göcke , and Thomas Köhler
Manufacturer: Physica-Verlag Heidelberg
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 3790815055

Book Description

Die Bedeutung der Außenwirtschaftslehre wächst, je mehr die Globalisierung und damit der internationale Handel und Kapitalverkehr zunehmen. In diesem Lern- und Übungsbuch geht es darum, sich die notwendigen Kenntnisse von den internationalen Wirtschaftsbeziehungen aktiv zu erarbeiten. Dazu wird der relevante Stoff im Rahmen von Repetitorien knapp und deutlich zusammengefasst und dann anhand von Fragestellungen mit ausführlichen Musterlösungen aufbereitet. Modelltheoretische Zusammenhänge werden weitgehend in verbal-grafischer Form erläutert. Das Spektrum reicht von einführenden Aufgaben für das Breitenstudium bis hin zu anspruchsvolleren Themen aus dem Schwerpunktbereich. Aufgrund seiner Konzeption ist das Buch insbesondere für Selbstudium und Prüfungsvorbereitung geeignet.

Beiträge zur Mikro- und zur Makroökonomik: Festschrift für Hans Jürgen Ramser

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Beiträge zur Mikro- und zur Makroökonomik: Festschrift für Hans Jürgen Ramser

Manufacturer: Springer
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 3540423087

Book Description

Der Charme dieser Festschrift liegt in ihrer Breite: hier versammeln sich in über 40 Beiträgen Altmeister ihres Fachs, die mittleren Jahrgänge und der Nachwuchs, Volkswirte und Betriebswirte, Grenzgänger, die zwischen diesen beiden Disziplinen arbeiten und auch Praktiker. Herausgekommen ist dabei eine Berg- und Talfahrt von den Höhen der reinen Theorie bis in die Niederungen der empirischen Forschung, eine Sammlung von Arbeiten zum Mainstream und zu den Nischen des Fachs, die von formal-theoretischen Analysen bis hin zu methodischen, ethischen und philosophischen Abhandlungen reicht. Kaum ein Leser wird alle Beiträge lesen wollen oder können, aber für die meisten sollte genügend dabei sein, das die Anschaffung lohnt.

Business Cycle Models with Indeterminacy (Contributions to Economics)

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Business Cycle Models with Indeterminacy (Contributions to Economics)
Mark Weder
Manufacturer: Physica-Verlag Heidelberg
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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Book Description

Three original models which explain business cycles as a result of self-fulfilling expectations are presented. The models are founded on the structure of dynamic general equilibrium theory. Market power and increasing returns to scale are introduced which allow indeterminancy of the Rational Expectations equilibria to be obtained. Unlike the majority of existing literature on this subject, the departures from perfect markets and constant returns presented in these models are very low and, more importantly, at a realistic level to achieve the respective results. It is demonstrated in all of the presented models that stylized facts of the business cycle can be reproduced.

Die Neue Makrookonomik: Marktungleichgewicht, Rationierung und Beschaftigung (Campus Politische Okonomie)

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Die Neue Makrookonomik: Marktungleichgewicht, Rationierung und Beschaftigung (Campus Politische Okonomie)

Manufacturer: Campus-Verlag
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Perfect Paperback

Macroeconomics | Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

Theory | Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

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ASIN: 3593327511

Customer Reviews:

naughty naughty.......2003-01-31

a delightful, insightful book that will make you marvel and giggle. Literary enthusiasts and Howard Stern fans are both treated to lively stories, definitions and explorations of meanings that are richly entertaining. Many will not like it because it contains "equal opportunity offender" jokes that are not exactly politically correct. Get over it.

This work is sardonic and witty and entirely refreshing in its unrepentant iconoclasm.

The book is funny and educational and a worthy edition to the individualist's library.

A scholarly work on a much neglected subject........1999-08-30

This is not a humor book. It is not a salacious book about dirty jokes. Instead, it is a serious work dealing with a subject about which people normally are uncomfortable: swearing and cursing (there is a difference!). In a well-selected collection of articles from scholars and well-informed lay persons, this book contains excellent examples of verbal agression from around the world.

dated and unfunny.......1999-08-23

Might raise a few giggles if you were a very repressed college professor living in the 1950's.

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