Customer Reviews:
Capture the art of scenario planning in hours .......2006-02-23
Scenario thinking is not science but an "art," which is a disciplined way of foreseeing alternative futures and difficult decisions in this complex and uncertain world. This popular book written by Peter Schwartz, a renowned futurist and business strategist, aims to help readers learn the art and methodology of scenario planning. Scenario is defined as "a tool for ordering one's perceptions about alternative future environments in which one's decisions might be played out (Schwartz, 1996, p.4)." The purpose of scenario building is not a clear picture of tomorrow, but sound decisions about the future. Its method that uses individuals as a filter to study the evolution of the future is able to let individuals, organizations or countries reduce the unpredictability and act with a knowledgeable sense of risk and reward.
Perceiving future in the present, scenario builders write stories that give meaning to multifaceted and complicated events. The storytelling of scenarios is based on both facts and imagination. On the one hand, since scenarios are not fictions, their production process involves rigorous research and skilled information hunting and gathering. For instance, Schwartz encourages scenario researchers to look at "fringes" because new knowledge usually originates there. On the other hand, imagination is the vital ingredient to forecast alternative futures with reasonable gallantry. Writing scenarios, researchers attempt to influence perceptions inside the heads of decision makers and further change their attitudes and/or behaviors toward future.
The key contribution of this book is clearly elaborating the process and method about scenario building. According to Schwartz, the building blocks of scenario creation encompass driving forces (society, technology, economic, politics, environment), predetermined elements (i.e. slow-changing phenomena, inevitable collisions, demographics), and critical uncertainty. There are eight steps to build a scenario: 1) identifying focal issue or decision; 2) listing key forces in the local environment; 3) listing the macro-environment and micro-environment driving forces; 4) ranking key forces and driving trends by importance and uncertainty; 5) deciding the axes to select scenario logics and plots; 6) fleshing out the scenarios; 7) looking at implications; and 8) selecting leading indicators and signposts. Besides, scenario planners have to avoid assigning probabilities to different scenarios, to name scenarios cleverly, and to establish an open-minded and participatory scenario development team.
A good scenario has to be simple, plausible and surprising. The intriguing scenarios that Schwartz uses in this book are not only corporations in western countries, like Royal Dutch/Shell, but also various cases in Asia and Europe. He suggests readers explore two to three alternative scenarios at one time and avoid single prediction. The most common types of scenarios addressed here are: 1) more of the same, but better; 2) worse (decay and depression); and 3) different but better (fundamental change). In later chapter, he provides three scenarios (new empires, market world, and change without progress) as examples to demonstrate how to write scenarios of forecasting about the world in 2005. Although, in reality, it is impossible to know which scenario will take place, the preparation for three let people rehearse the future and look for hints to recognize which drama is unfolding. Accordingly, individuals, organizations, or countries can avoid unpleasant surprises and know how to react to the uncertain happenings shortly.
In sum, "An Art of a Long View" is a reader-friendly book that allows novices to quickly grasp the gist of scenario writing. It concretely depicts the scenario art and the methods to mimic its practices. By reading this book, I obtain the "freedom" to create scenarios for alternative futures, to recognize the unfolding events, and hopefully respond to the unpredictable guardedly. It is valuable to learn scenario planning as it can be extensively used for forecasting futures at micro-level (i.e. individuals, family, community) and at macro-level (i.e. organization, society, nation, globe). Although not everyone is gifted in mastering the art of scenario creation, this great book opens a door for those who are willing to absorb its fundamental principals and polish their skills by practicing. Thus, I highly recommend it!
Pleasant, provacative, and easily read........2005-02-18
There should be only two criteria for the quality of a book: whether it provokes thought, and how easy it is to read. The Art of the Long View is both an easy read, and provocative. It coerces, challenges, and invites you to examine your own perceptual barriers to envisioning the future. It provides a slew of anecdotes, stories, and scenarios that illustrate approaches to future studies, and each person's inherent connection to the field. Finally, it can be thoroughly read in one or two days.
Every human has an innate desire, and skill, at perceiving the future. This pervasive theme is brought up continually, every instance highlighting ways in which the people of the world are often caught unawares of future that, while adjacent to us, we blind ourselves from. Interspersed among Schwartz's easy, conversational style are hard and fast pointers that will probably help even the more detail-oriented readers to figure out what the author is talking about when he talks about the "long view". Additionally, Schwartz discusses ways in which we can increase our capacity to open our perceptions. Some people are born to be brilliant forecasters, but everyone can learn, he contends.
Pragmatic creativity is perhaps the keystone to the long view, with a curiously settling notion that this optimism is central to any successful person, if not forecaster or businessman. The development of this creativity is perhaps one of the other things I found particularly exciting in Long View. When we increase the diversity of our knowledge, we can learn to develop these scenarios that encourage the decisive, robust action that Schwartz seems to genuinely feel will make our world a better place. His notions of optimistic future scenario preparedness, as well as my own enjoyable experience with this book, prompt me to recommend it without reservation.
Denial is the first step.......2004-12-24
A very good friend of mine recommended this book to me, as Schwartz's technique on scenario planning became the backbone of his research topic in urban planning. I was very eager to see what Schwartz had to say about his livelihood.
There are complaints about his examples being outdated. I think they serve the point of illustration. The three thing that are critical, as Schwartz pointed out, are
1) Denial - which drives even the biggest companies to the ground,
2) Strategic conversation - think of it as those "business" meetings that in Godfather (with less blood), and
3) Technological trends - this one is self-explanatory.
The deatils for each area, I will let you find out.
Incidentally, I read Schwartz's "Inevitasble Surprises" before reading this book, so this is contrary to the chronlogical order of publication. Nevertheless, they complement each other, and should be read concurrently.
What a great book?.......2004-02-16
You have to buy The Art of the Long View. I don't know how to explain how great the book is. Don't hesitate to grap one
Open Your Brain and Reperceive the World.......2004-02-16
This book will help you to learn the scenario planning process. At the beginning, the author presents a short but insightful example how scenario playing an important role for starting up a gardening tool company. The author also shares an "information hunting and gathering process" which tell you where to get some helpful data. Various factors influencing the futures are also discussed (including socials, politics, economic, technologies, and environment). In addition, at the end of the book, the author provides a user's guide (eight steps of how to hold a strategic conversation) and eight steps to develop scenarios which I found very useful. The book enables us to use scenario planning as a tool to deal with uncertain futures. Scenarios help us to awake and "reperceive" others possible and impossible alternative futures including both short and long term. The author also believes that a good scenario leads you to ask better questions. The point of scenario-planning is "to help us suspend our disbelieve in all the futures: to allow us to think that any on of them might place. Then, we can prepare for what we DO NOT think is going to happen." (p.195)
However, one annoying thing in this book is that the author keeps referring to chapters (e.g. look in chapter 7) but physically, there are just no chapters number indicated in the book. There are just short titles in the table of content and at the beginning of each chapter. You have to go back and forth between the TOC and chapters to to see which one is actually being referred. However, I consider this is a minor issue comparing to what you will learn from this book.
You may find this book useful if you are preparing for your strategic plans, making decisions having critical impacts to your firm or your personal life, or even you are just an ordinary reader, this book will open your mind to a new level of critical thinking and imagination about unfolding futures. Highly recommend.
Customer Reviews:
Provocative Thinking about the Future.......2006-10-11
This book is important for developing long-term strategic visioning through scenario building. With it, you take trends and then not merely extrapolate them, but also examine what might happen if there were significant changes to the trends. In the end, you craft "stories built around carefully constructed plots that make the significant elements of the world stand out boldly" and unlock fresh perspectives about the future.
The Ravings of a Futurist.......2003-08-30
This book has nothing to do with organizational change. It is simply the ravings of a futurist. There are plenty of good books of strategic organizational change, buy those instead.
Review for Art of the Long View.......2000-02-12
The Art of the Long View By Peter Schwartz Peter Schwartz challenges uncertainty by using scenario planning as the tool to predict and prepare for the future. Schwartz suggest that to act with confidence, "[o]ne must be willing to look ahead and consider uncertainties". In his book, Schwartz presents many "rules" to creating scenarios such as: "seeking out truly unusual people...who could see significant but surprising forces for change". Another rule is to view the future with at least three different mindset: as an optimist, pessimist and transitionist. Schwartz also advises the future scenario planners to have a good focus yet practice using peripheral vision (called fringes) to guide direction. What people don't see directly, such as activities happening in another country for example, may interrupt economy, social factors and so on. As an example, Schwartz mentioned the problem of third countries' rise of youth. With the rise of teenage population and little job opportunities in their own country, millions of foreign youth may migrate to countries like U.S. When this happens the stability of U.S. in terms of population, social welfare and minority issues will be affected. In turn these social factors may affect the economic factors. Thus, the readers of this book will learn that awareness will become a strong asset to being a great scenario planner. The advice and guides Schwartz provides are logical and simplistic. Human beings are used to some degree of future planning and Schwartz acknowledges this as he labels people as "scenario-building animal." With the acknowledgment of this innate capability people have for scenario planning Schwartz tries to focus on fine-tuning that innate skill to help people and business plan for their future. By planning for the future one can stabilize uncertainty both emotionally and financially. Schwart's background of having worked at SRI (Standford Research Institute), Shell and Smith & Hawken made the advice of the author more legitimate and provided examples of how scenario building can become a profession to consider. Scenario writing is truly an art that requires open-minded, creative and resourceful thinking. Overall, I enjoyed reading this book. Schwartz understands that though we have no control over uneventful factors that may disrupt our future, we can have the power to prevent disasters from sneaking up on us. By preparing our minds to possibilities, both good and bad, people can learn to adapt to the future. I especially liked the optimistic view of Mr. Schwartz. I ended the book with enlightenment and happy thoughts of my own future.
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Reading and Writing in the Middle Grades: A Whole-Language View (Analysis and Action Series) (Analysis and Action Series)
Gary L. Manning ,
Maryann Manning , and
Roberta Long
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Here's where you'll find 16 proven methods for developing readers along with 12 simultaneous strategies for developing writers in a constructive, holistic approach.
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- Piety and Politics in Imagining the Holy Land
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Imagining the Holy Land: Maps, Models, and Fantasy Travels
Burke O. Long
Manufacturer: Indiana University Press
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Orientalism
ASIN: 0253341361 |
Customer Reviews:
Piety and Politics in Imagining the Holy Land.......2003-03-27
The photographs, maps, travelers' accounts, physical reconstructions, and studies of the Bible that are the subject of this book once fired popular fantasies of the Holy Land. Nineteenth century visitors to the Chautauqua Institution used to walk through a large scale model of biblical Palestine, sometimes tucking a blade of grass into their pockets or purses. You can still take a tour and listen to Sunday evening lectures there. At the St. Louis World's Fair of 1904, a replica of Jerusalem covered eleven acres while today, some 300 miles to the southeast, a seven story high Christ of the Ozarks looks over a modern re-creation of the Holy Land set in the hills of Arkansas. For home viewing there were tours via stereoscopic photographs, lavishly illustrated books such as Picturesque Palestine, and the reports of scholars who passed through the American School of Oriental Research in Jerusalem. All reached for an illusory touch of the "real" in the midst of fantasies about the Holy Land, as may still be seen in a reader friendly book written by John Dominic Crossan and Jonathan Reed, Excavating Jesus. These competing visions of the Holy Land were, and are, shaped by forms of Christianity and Judaism, and entangled with various political and ideological debates at home in America.
David Gunn, Bradford Professor of Religion at Texas Christian University wrote that Imagining the Holy Land is "remarkable and important...not only pertinent to an understanding of biblical criticism and popular culture in America...but crucially important to a nuanced understanding of American public discourse about Middle Eastern affairs today."
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The Art of the Long View.: An article from: The Futurist
Manufacturer: World Future Society
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This digital document is an article from The Futurist, published by World Future Society on January 1, 1992. The length of the article is 321 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
Citation Details
Title: The Art of the Long View.
Publication:
The Futurist (Magazine/Journal)
Date: January 1, 1992
Publisher: World Future Society
Volume: v26
Issue: n1
Page: p34(2)
Article Type: Book Review
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This digital document is an article from Music Trades, published by Music Trades Corp. on February 1, 2003. The length of the article is 1669 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
Citation Details
Title: Investing for long-term growth, instead of trying to please Wall Street, Peavey views current economic problems as a rare opportunity to expand. (Company Profile).
Publication:
Music Trades (Magazine/Journal)
Date: February 1, 2003
Publisher: Music Trades Corp.
Volume: 151
Issue: 1
Page: 201(6)
Distributed by Thomson Gale
Book Description
This digital document is an article from Music Trades, published by Music Trades Corp. on July 1, 1992. The length of the article is 1033 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
Citation Details
Title: Karaoke ... passing fad or long-term market? (Entertainment Music Marketing Corp.'s Mark Saltzman shares views on the karaoke's profitability) (Interview)
Publication:
Music Trades (Magazine/Journal)
Date: July 1, 1992
Publisher: Music Trades Corp.
Volume: v140
Issue: n6
Page: p79(2)
Article Type: Interview
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This digital document is an article from Photo Trade News, published by Cygnus Business Media on May 1, 2005. The length of the article is 2200 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
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Title: The long view: whatever you call them "binocams" or "diginoculars," the hybrid camera-binocular has arrived. But are these new combo devices ready for prime time?
Author: Tim Jones
Publication:
Photo Trade News (Magazine/Journal)
Date: May 1, 2005
Publisher: Cygnus Business Media
Volume: 69
Issue: 5
Page: 14(2)
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Elizabeth I: Then and Now
Manufacturer: Folger Shakespeare Library
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The Folger Shakespeare Library includes among its holdings the largest collection of materials in North America relating to Elizabeth I, including thirty-eight documents signed by the queen. On the occasion of the 400th anniversary of Elizabeth's death in March 1603, the Folger Library mounted an ambitious exhibition of more than one hundred books, manuscripts, and works of art from its collections.
The rich materials in the Folger Library's collection portray Elizabeth in stunning detail, as affectionate stepdaughter and censorious cousin, as humanist prince, as powerful and often capricious patroness, and as a private person. She was the center not only of national culture but also of a vibrant court culture with complex ritual practices such as elaborate New Year's gift exchanges and summertime progresses through the countryside. Her self-fashioning literally involved the use of "fashion." She dressed to be seen; her clothes made a statement about her power as a female ruler and about the stability and strength of her nation. The many portraits of Elizabeth which survive, including the 1579 Sieve portrait featured on the cover, suggest the complex interplay between the queen's politics of self-display and her powerful vanity.
Essays by noted scholars Carole Levin, Heidi Brayman Hackel, Janel Mueller, Sheila Ffolliott, and Barbara Hodgdon explore Elizabeth's life, her books, her portraits, the many documents in the Folger Library relating to her, and her continuing charismatic power in British and American culture.
Customer Reviews:
Mad takes on Superduperman, Battyman and their friends.......2002-11-29
Superman and Batman appear on the cover of "Mad About Super Heroes," along with Alfred E. Newman, because most of the parodies found within have to do with those two comic book icons. For the Man of Steel the fun goes all the way back to Harvey Kurtzman's classic "Superduperman!" from "Mad" #4 (back when it was still a comic book) to "Smellville" from Mad #415. However, "Superduperman!", the parody of the comic book, is not to be confused with "Superduperman" the take off on the first movie, which were followed by "Spuerduperman II" and "Stuporman ZZZ," which is not to be confused with the television series "Lotus & Cluck: The New Misadventures of Stuporman." One of the things I found interesting reading through these stories was how hard it must be after several decades to come up with a new name for Superman's secret identity, from Clark Bent to Cluck Camp.
The Caped Crusader receives similar treatment, from the classic Wally Wood drawn "Bat Boy and Rubin!" to "Bats-Man" the television show to the blockbuster "Battyman" movie and its "Buttman Returns" and "Buttman and Rubbin'" sequels. This collection comes courtesy of "the usual gang of super-idiots," and includes classic artwork by Mort Drucker, Sergio Aragones, Al Jafee, Angelo Torres, and Don Martin (these guys must have worked for nothing because this book is, by its own admission, priced "Cheap!). There are two sections in the volume that offer up the stories in full-color, but, of course, these are restricted to offerings from the comic book days of "Mad" (e.g., "Plastic Sam" and "Woman Wonder") and back covers (e.g, "Famous Artists' Paintings of Comic Book Characters").
There are other full-length movie parodies as well of the "X-Men" and "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" movies, although I liked the "Upcoming Movies Based on Comic Books," which simply offered up quickies on "Human Torch Song Triology," "Hulk Fiction" and "JLA Confidential." Another favorite is the "Real-Life Superhoeres at Comic Book Conventions," which uses the names of familiar heroes from "The Amazing Spider-Man" to "Wonder Woman" to describe the fans who read such literature. So there is a nice mix of formats to these comic looks at the comic books as the world's greatest super heroes are "mercilessly mocked and ridiculed by the world's dumbest artists and writers." Of course, if you did not read the original comics or see these movies, then you will never ever get all of the jokes. But then that is the whole point of satire, right?
A great book of parodies.......2002-08-13
This was a great book to just laugh at.
Customer Reviews:
Disappointed.......2007-08-15
All these books rate so highly, but I can't see why other than maybe I don't go in for crude humor. I believed the reviews and was disappointed. It made good kindling for the fire, but glad I got it used and cheap-12 cents and shipping. My mistake.
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- The Everything Kids' Horses Book: Hours of Off-the-hoof Fun! (Everything Kids Series)
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- The Incarnational Art Of Flannery O'connor
- The Life of a Balinese Temple: Artistry, Imagination, and History in a Peasant Village
- The New Deal Art Projects: An Anthology of Memoirs
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Creating Better Futures: Scenario Planning As a Tool for A Better Tomorrow
