Book Description
Cutting-edge information on the valuation and application of real options
Most investors and risk managers are familiar with financial options. But the real option structure is embedded in billions of dollars of stocks traded every day, and in billions of dollars of strategic or investment decisions made by many companies. Real options are a useful tool to guide a firm's strategic planning, and can create or enhance a firm's value.
Real Options Analysis provides a revolutionary approach to evaluating and valuing capital investment strategies by taking into consideration the real options inherent in the strategic decision-making process. This book provides readers with a qualitative and quantitative description of real options, the methods used in solving real options, why and when they are used, and the applicability of these methods in decision-making. In addition, multiple business cases and real-life scenarios are discussed. This includes presenting and framing the problems, as well as the introduction of a stepwise quantitative process developed by the author for solving these problems using the different methodologies inherent in real options-with the assistance of Real Options software powered by Crystal Ball(TM), which is included on the companion CD-ROM. With technical presentations of models and approaches backed by theoretical and mathematical justifications, Real Options Analysis is one of the most comprehensive guides available on real options.
Customer Reviews:
Real Options.......2007-05-14
Mun's book shows how real options problems, like those faced in the real world, can be solved. Other books may provide a better introduction to real options concepts, but the methods employed are suitable only for very simple problems. Where other approaches require that you develop your own lattices (or other solutions), Mun shows you how to use his Supper Lattice Solver and Monte Carlo simulation software to solve these problems. I am convinced that his approach will not only facilitate the solution of these problems, but will also be more readily accepted by management. I look forward to acquiring Mun's software and applying it in practice.
The Second Edition - A Great Practical Guide through the Real Option Debate.......2005-11-30
As practitioners and academics continue to grapple with quantifiable uncertainties in real asset decision making, the debate about real option models will no doubt continue.
Johnathan Mun's second book and more specifically his case study approach allows practitioners from diverse industries to enter the debate with simple excel asset pricing skills. To my mind there is no better pragmatic work on the topic than the second edition of Real Options Analysis. With the book in one hand and the robust SLS software up on the screen - framing, pricing and understanding real options is pretty straightforward.
Two points to note: After 30 days, just as you begin to get hooked on the superb software it is likely to gently expire. That's when you are saved by the second point; the author is hugely supportive - His `one line insights' in response to specific queries made this a great purchase.
Edinburgh. Scotland.
On average: a good book .......2004-07-30
This was my first book on Real Options. After this, I complemented my knowledge with more accurate researches on the theoritic foundations on the subject (eg. Trigeorgis and Copeland).
What I liked of this text is that it was a soft landing into the Real Option world, with a simple and easily understandable description. Its major pro is to present transparently the basics of a concept that is often approached at a too high and formal level.
What I did not like is the fact that few chapters at the end were not really useful but full of stuff and formulas with no explanations that cannot practically be used. I had the sensation they were out of place, since I could grasp their meaning only after passing to more comprehensive books.
One more criticism is that you don't understand the effect of the difference between private and public risk in real options evaluation as you do with other texts. However, I still consider this the book where I formed my basics before being able to master some other more detailed book (but also more difficult to master). The Crystall-Ball package was also a nice surprise. At the end, if you consider the price and the content it was surely good value for money even though it's not a masterpiece.
An excellent book for intermediate reader.......2004-01-28
Mun's book is an excellent guide for those who have basic knowledge about asset valuation and want to study real options.
decent read on real options.......2003-07-07
decent read... did a good job on explaining practical uses of real options. would have been better if not so much written promoting the use of crystal ball. overall, happy to see that minimizes coverage on replicating portfolios and focuses on risk neutral prob. i recommend this book, especially if mba student and brief coverage in intro class of real options leaves you interested / unfulfilled.
Book Description
The electricity, natural gas, and other energy markets are on the brink of becoming THE hot opportunity for institutional investors worldwide. In fact, the growth in volume for NYMEX and IPE energy contracts is the only proof you need of the enormous potential in trading these markets. Now, for the first time, this book gives you step-by-step directions on taking advantage of this developing resource. Energy Risk walks you through properly assessing and evaluating the enormous opportunities that are unique to this complex yet vibrant market. It provides not only an expert overview of energy trading but also the philosophies and specific investment strategies you need. Harvard-trained physicist Dragana Pilipovic reveals the intricacies and mechanics of today's energy markets, provides practical answers on how best to get a foothold in energy trading, and also discusses: In-depth explanations of the primary factors that influence energy risk, such as spot price behavior, volatility, and the forward price curve; A detailed introduction to the fundamental price drivers of energy markets including electricity, natural gas, and heating and crude oil; Clearly defined ways that you can use tools introduced throughout the book to achieve your company's crucial risk/return goals. Containing unique trading models that were custom-designed for managing risk in energy and commodity trading, and with over 175 charts and graphs that illustrate key features of the market's equations, correlations, and methodologies. Energy Risk will be the standard energy market reference for many years to come.
Customer Reviews:
waste of time and money.......2007-06-14
Someone , in his review, said that 50% was useless and another reader added that "I wouldn't buy it with my money": I disagee: 99% of the book is utterly useless and would noy buy it with my worst enemy's money. I'd rather spend it on something else.
I saw that there is a new edition: Please do yourself a favor: DO NOT BUY IT!
A good general introduction but needs more case studies.......2005-04-12
It is now a tautology to say that energy derivatives are very important financial instruments. Energizing a market of billions of dollars, they are useful to many different organizations and find their place in myriads of both business and personal portfolios. This book is written for those readers who are just entering the field of energy derivatives, but yet who still have a background in other areas of financial engineering. It emphasizes risk minimization, and also gives some of the author's unique perspective on the subject. Only the first six chapters were read by this reviewer and so only these will be reviewed here.
The first chapter of the book discusses the general properties of energy derivatives and the concept of risk management. The author distinguishes between `quantitative' analysis, which emphasizes the construction of models that replicate market behavior, and `fundamental' analysis, which is an attempt to understand and describe market behavior in terms of the economics of supply and demand. The author emphasizes fundamental analysis in the book. She also outlines what makes energy derivatives unique in their analysis, i.e. what makes them different from interest rate and equity markets in terms of these different analysis categories. Energy markets exhibit stronger mean reversion, she argues, and supply constraints can "shock" the system. These differences motivate the introduction of the topics of `convenience yield' and seasonality that do not have to be used in other types of markets.
Chapter 2 gets into the actual construction of financial models, with the author emphasizing the need for effective benchmarking of these models. She constructs some elementary stochastic price models and introduces some of the basic modeling terminology to be used in the book. One of these concepts is the `convenience yield' that represents the benefit that a holder of a commodity receives by holding the commodity, and is a measure of the balance between the available supply and the existing demand. Defining the convenience yield is difficult, but dominates the mathematical modeling of the energy markets. The author spends a fair amount of time discussing the mean-reversion process with more to come in later chapters. She also discusses the difference between yield and forward rate curves, a forward curve geared toward short-term interest rates, while a yield curve is a discount rate curve representing average rates from the present to points along the time axis.
In chapter 3 the author discusses some of the mathematical/statistical tools involved in energy derivatives, with the analysis of time series and distribution analysis being the two dominant tools that are examined. Time series are used to monitor day-to-day changes in prices, while distribution analysis deals with price levels over extended intervals of time. The material in the chapter is standard, and should be helpful to readers who need a review of it.
Chapter 4 is an introduction to the modeling of spot prices, with the assumption that supply and demand effects converge in the spot market prices. Derivative contracts are bought and sold with the belief that this convergence holds. After a quick look at actual time series of spot prices, the author constructs a lognormal price model and two mean-reverting models. Lognormal price models are of course standard constructions in financial engineering, and are popular for their simplicity and for enforcing positive-definiteness. Negative autocorrelation between spot prices are characteristic of energy markets, and is satisfied in mean-reverting models. The author also introduces one of her models, a two-factor model, with the first factor being the spot price, and the second factor a long-term equilibrium price, which when the latter is zero gives a single-factor model for the energy commodity spot price. Time series analysis is used to obtain the model parameters and distribution analysis is used to test the models over extended time periods. The distribution analysis involves Monte Carlo simulation, and the results showing the differences between actual and sample model simulated distributions.
Recognizing the importance of forward prices in derivatives pricing and risk management, the author gives a detailed treatment of them in chapter 5. The author points out, interestingly, that there is no correlation between energy futures prices to interest rates in the energy commodity markets. The futures and forward prices are valued in an identical manner in energy markets, and energy future price and forward price can be used interchangeably. She also uses the no-arbitrage market condition to show that spot and forward prices are different, and derives partial differential equations for the forward price, both with and without dividends.
Chapter 6 is extremely important, especially for the development of practical trading strategies, for it concerns measures of volatility for price processes. The volatility of the spot price gives information about the degree of randomness in the returns of the spot price over short intervals of time. Traders are of course very interested in volatilities, since the width of the price distribution is related to the probability of the option expiring in-the-money. This is well-known in financial modeling of derivatives, but there are some peculiarities in energy markets, such as "volatility term structure", that make the modeling process more difficult. The author discusses how to calculate historical, market-implied, and model-implied volatilities, and introduces the (two-dimensional) `discrete volatility matrix', the latter of which is due to the author. Several justifications are given for using a two-dimensional matrix of volatilities rather than a single-volatility term structure. The author does not however give any practical reasons for using this matrix or case studies that would illustrate its advantages. Reference is given to a commercial product that uses it, but it would have been helpful to the reader if the author had given more details on its use in practical everyday trading.
Not for newcomers.......2003-06-26
I work in the energy products/generation industry and thought this will help explain what the whole energy-risk field is about. I'm still as confused now as I was before I bought the book .. probably because I dont have a strong background in computational finance. This is defintely not for newcomers and is really geared to the quants.
Not for newcomers.......2003-06-26
I work in the energy products/generation industry and thought this will help explain what the whole energy-risk field is about. I'm still as confused now as I was before I bought the book .. probably because I dont have a strong background in computational finance. This is defintely not for newcomers and is really geared to the quants.
For the Technically Minded Only........2002-03-05
This is a very useful book for those who are looking for a basic primer on risk management tools where the examples are specific to energy related derviatives.
The test is technical so this is appropriate for those who can understand sophisticated mathematical and statistical concepts. BR>Unfortunately, for someone in that audience the information is not very much different from what they already understand.
However, since it uses specific energy examples throughout the text it is useful for those looking for techniques to apply to th energy markets. Also derivatives of the energy markets are reviewed.
Book Description
The more precisely risks can be defined the easier it is to make judgments about whether they're fairly valued. Valuing Fixed Income Futures is a practical resource that equips financial professionals with a means of measuring the performance of Treasury and Eurodollar futures.
Written by David Boberski, one of today's leading Wall Street analysts, the book explains how to apply technology to develop empirical frameworks to solve for embedded option valuation in Treasury and Eurodollar futures. He shows in detail how to build empirical models to measure risk…the drivers of Treasury/Eurodollar spreads…and more.
Valuing Fixed Income Futures focuses on developing tools to aid in relative value decisions. This expert guide takes readers step by step through every major aspect of fixed income futures valuation using hedging examples from the mortgage market:
An Overview of Where Futures Fit into the Fixed Income Landscape_ examining the characteristics of fixed income futures and what risks they entail
A Comprehensive Examination of the Futures Market_ detailing recent major changes in the trading arena, the ways in which futures mirror mortgage convexity, calendar spreads, and the types of traders who use futures to manage risks
Treasury Futures: The Language of the Basis_ covering delivery option, basis matrix, and “fear arbitrage” from recent squeezes in the market
Eurodollar Futures: Minimal Structure, Complex Implications_ exploring convexity bias, contrasting Eurodollar and Fed Funds valuation, hedging hybrid ARMs, and hedging in practice
Treasury/Eurodollar (TED) Spreads_ analyzing drivers of the spread and TED spread with empirical models
Pricing Options with an Event Model_ explaining why volatility drives option prices, and how to create a volatility map to anticipate future volatility
Filled with scores of financial tables, charts, and figures, this complete valuation tool provides definitions of the entire range of fixed income futures terms, plus in-depth guidance for applying all models and methods.
Valuing Fixed Income Futures presents a careful, state-of-the-art analysis of the technology for understanding price behavior and the risk of each contract not found in any similar resource.
Average customer rating:
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Valuing the Future
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Book Description
Just who is this Mimi Smartypants, anyway?
She's 30 (but looks younger), 5'1" (but looks taler). She's never faced a situation she couldn't comment about -- especialy online! She lives in Chicago with her husband, LT, and her large cat, The Cat -- not to be confused with Kat (female friend, good for fashion advice, philosophical discussions, and getting into trouble in bars). She's never had a cavity and likes to look in other people's medicine cabinets. She's witty, urbane, outrageous, an international sensation; she's got a unique, smartypants take on ordinary life and its rampant surreality. And absolutely nothing is sacred or taboo -- not men, marriage, beer, religion, sex, marital aids, or motherhood.
Get ready world -- because Mimi's going to explain it all to you!
Customer Reviews:
Great introductory book for the uninitiated..........2007-09-14
Anyone who has been reading her blog would find this book to be a bit of a retread, and the entries that appear in this book seem a million miles away from what she has been writing about more recently (mainly, her daughter Nora). But to someone who has never heard of mimi smartypants and has yet to experience her incredibly smart and funny meanderings -- they are in for a real treat.
Like her online entries, this book is probably best savored in small bites, not read straight through. It is pretty dense and sometimes repetative with its themes-- as most peoples lives tend to be! This is not a smack against the book, but rather an observation.
Overall, whether or not you're a fan (yet)... its definitely worth a read.
Fun - Certainly not 5 Stars.......2006-08-07
Please people, this book is quite and mildly amusing, but 5 stars? Please... It was OK, semi funny, but 'Mimi' is too weird in order to be able to relate to, and the little quips get a dull after a while. I finished this a couple of weeks ago and would be hard-pressed to remember any of it.
A Must Read!.......2006-04-25
I LOVED this book! So much so that I entered it into my permanent collection of books to keep. This is something I almost never do since I belong to a book trading club and always get rid of them. This book was so hilarious I had to hang on to it. If you are from Chicago or have even been to Chicago you will find the references even more funny, and if not you'll still laugh out loud at every page. So Funny!!
Ms. Smartypants amusing reflections on life are fun to follow .......2005-12-31
She is license-less so she rides the train in her morning Chicago commute. Thirty year old Mimi Smartypants decides to keep a journal of her thoughts on any topic. Mimi might type on her web blog a tirade about her family or friends, especially those Y carriers, raves on the latest punk rock group, or just how well her pension plan and other investments are doing. Nothing is sacred to Mimi except perhaps Browned Eyed Girl Van Morrison at least before he became famous. Mimi Smartypants sees the world from her 5'1 towering height as medicine chests worth exploring or her take on home décor (aside to Mimi: try being a book reviewer - worse on the home than rugrats or terriers).
Ms. Smartypants amusing reflections on life are fun to follow (easier to read in book form when riding the C-TRAN than using a computer on the Clayton County public bus system) as she pulls no punches when she knocks an icon down, but does so with humor. Readers will be amused by her observations and those who want more can do so at her bloggering site Smartypants.Diaryland.com which is filled with droll musings on the world according to Mimi Smartypants.
Harriet Klausner
A great book for reading on the el.......2005-11-30
This sharp new book reads like it was written by the witty, imperfect, cooler older sister you wish you had; the one who walks around with a dryer sheet unknowingly stuck to her back but manages to give the most spot on advice for any of those twenty something angst moments we all have had. She is down to earth, funny, and writes about things all of us twenty somethings have experienced.
This was great bathtime reading; the wisdom and humor have been pared down into pithy little essays and vignettes, which makes it great for on the go or beach reading. You can sit down and read the whole book at once or stretch it out and enjoy it bit by bit. Either way, this was a real hit with me and I will be recommending it to my friends.
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